Each week this offseason, we’ll be focusing on one position and how the Panthers may choose to address their needs; whether they’re in the market for an upgrade at starter or just a reliable backup, every player on the 53-man roster is going to be important in 2018.
This is Quarterback Week.
UCLA’s Josh Rosen and USC’s Sam Darnold have dominated the discussion around the first overall pick at this admittedly early stage of the draft season; while Darnold is also worthy of a high draft pick, Rosen appears to be the real gem of this quarterback class. While Rosen will not be the somebody the Panthers are going to even think about drafting as they both have a franchise quarterback and Rosen will be long gone by the time the 24th pick rolls around, this piece aims to use his game against Colorado as an example of what scouts look for when breaking down prospects at this position so that we can properly break down a couple of the prospects Marty Hurney and the Panthers may actually be considering. So, Josh Rosen, how come you’re so great?
Pure Passer
As a pure thrower of the football, Rosen is one of the best prospects in recent years. College football is full of quarterbacks who can accurately hit receivers at short and medium distances but there are different degrees of accuracy; Rosen is right up there at the top in all meanings of the word. In college football, receivers are often wide open, with the quarterback just needing to get the ball near the receiver in order to complete the pass; however, in the NFL, windows are often much tighter, with passes needing to placed more precisely in order to allow for completions. On both of the following plays, Rosen shows the ability to place the ball on the open side of the receiver to allow for the completion; the second play demonstrates the other advantage of this type of accuracy, by leading the ball away from the receiver, it makes it easier for the receiver to catch the ball in stride and run after the catch:
The flip side of this is that sometimes the quarterback needs to avoid leading the receiver to prevent them from being hit by a safety over the top. On the following play, Rosen’s pass holds the defender in the center of the field; while the safety is able to make the tackle, the receiver is still able to control the ball.
What is also encouraging is how Rosen is able to pair this straight-line accuracy with touch; this falls in with the ability to judge the depth of receivers. This might not sound that significant, but often passes are required to be placed in between layers of defenders, especially against zone coverage. On both of the following plays, Rosen shows the ability to drop the ball over the zone defenders and into the arms of the receiver:
This is also valuable on deep passes, where Rosen shows the ability to judge the speed of the receiver and to place the ball accordingly, such as on this play:
Touch is what separates a lot of players at the NFL level, and while no quarterback is perfect in this regard on every play, Rosen shows consistently good touch, particularly on underneath and intermediate passes. While players who don’t exhibit this touch at the college level can improve in the NFL, it is really something of a instinctive skill that players often either have or they don’t.
Rosen has it.
Mind Over Matter
As good as Rosen is in terms of being a pure thrower, it is hard for any player to have consistent success in the NFL without mastery of the mental side of the game. While Rosen played in a far more pro-style offense at UCLA than many college players have, it is still almost impossible to completely judge a player’s understanding without having personal access to them. Despite that, it is certainly possible to gain an indication of a player’s ability to understanding scheme from tape, and this is another area where Rosen does well.
On both of the following plays, Rosen shows the ability to work reads to both sides of the field. On the first, he sees the far-side inside linebacker commit outside and then comes back to the slant on the back side. On the second, he recognizes zone coverage and hits the sit-down over the middle.
These plays show more than just a basic instinct not to throw it to covered receivers and at least suggest a greater understanding of coverages and route concepts. Another promising sign of Rosen’s scheme understanding is the anticipation he shows on several throws; by understanding scheme and coverages, quarterbacks are able to hit increasingly tight windows by anticipating a receiver getting open based on the coverage, releasing the ball so that it arrives to the receiver when they get open, rather than having to see them open before throwing the ball. On both of the following comeback routes, Rosen is able to time the pass so that as the receiver comes out of their break, the ball is there for them to catch:
Where Rosen’s anticipation is most impressive, however, is when he is pressured; pressure forces quarterbacks to make quick reads to diagnose where the open receivers are, if they are able to do so in time, there are often yards to be had. On the next play, Rosen recognizes the linebacker blitz and hit the inside breaking route for a first down:
In this example, he sees the corner bail on the outside route and quickly hits the outside breaking route for another decent gain.
Anticipation throws like this require the quarterback to be confident in their reads and have a thorough understanding of the passing concepts. Of course, this confidence can be misplaced, but Rosen has shown the ability to make quick reads like this, making him a nightmare for teams when they look to blitz. A bonus on both of these plays is how Rosen is again able to place the ball away from the defender in a position where the receiver can run with it after the catch.
Any team looking to draft a quarterback would be foolish not to spend time with Rosen at a whiteboard going over passing concepts to make sure how he thinks about and diagnoses them is correct, but based on tape alone, Rosen seems to have the concepts as down as any quarterback in recent memory.
The Downsides
Nobody is perfect, and Rosen is no exception. The two concerns which stand out from his tape are his lack of mobility and elite arm strength. For many teams, the lack of mobility is not an issues, and it is certainly true that many of the NFL’s best quarterbacks have been pocket limited. Still, any team that involves the read-option in its offense may need to remove it should they draft Rosen….
With that being said, Rosen does show good pocket awareness; he is able to avoid pressure by being able to step up or around in the pocket rather than by looking to scramble. The arm strength is another issue that is certainly not a deal breaker, his arm is likely average for a starting NFL quarterback; he is not Brett Favre or Matthew Stafford. This doesn’t show up on underneath throws, but on some deep passes he can overthrow or underthrow receivers as he attempts to either overcompensate for his lack of strength or fails to compensate enough.
Conclusion
Quarterback is one of the hardest positions to assess from college tape alone due to the significant mental aspects to the position, but Rosen shows good scheme understanding based on the reads he makes. What can be said definitively (based on his tape) is that Rosen shows excellent short and intermediate accuracy, nice touch and an ability to pick apart the blitz. There have been better quarterback prospects, but not very many. Barring some significant developments during the draft build-up and given the high value placed on signal callers in the modern NFL, it would be a surprise if Rosen wasn’t atop everybody’s draft boards come May.
NFL Best Case Comparison: Philip Rivers
NFL Worst Case Comparison: Sam Bradford
My Draft Grade: A
One Sentence To Tell Your Friends: Has the mental capacity and pure passing ability to be an All Pro quarterback; may be held back by his lack of elite arm strength, but not enough for teams looking for a leader to pass on him.
Likely To Be Drafted: Top Five
