It would be very easy for the Panthers to overlook the New York Jets, having won three straight games, including a record-setting offensive performance in their previous tilt with the Miami Dolphins before the bye week, and a date with division rival New Orleans looming next Sunday. The Jets are led by journeyman 38-year-old quarterback Josh McCown, may not have running back Matt Forte, and their leading receiver is Robby Anderson; these names don’t strike fear into the hearts of defenses, but the 4-6 Jets, who were expected to be among the worst team in the league, play a hardnose style of football that has a “jack of all trades, master of none” mentality. The Jets will be more than happy to hand the Panthers an upset loss if they are looking past them and make the kind of mistakes that cost them a win in Chicago; if the Panthers can avoid turnovers and mental mistakes, they should be able to keep pace with New Orleans. As always, our five-part preview:
Five Players To Watch
#24 James Bradberry, Cornerback
One thing that has been worrisome about the Panthers passing defense this season is their penchant for allowing players to get behind them. Bradberry has had this happen to him a number of times and thanks to a little luck, he hasn’t really given up much deep. If he allows Robbie Anderson to get behind him on a consistent basis, the Panthers could be in for a shootout. As such, how Bradberry covers deep will have a huge impact on the outcome of the game.
#88 Greg Olsen, Tight End
How does he look in his return? Will we see him take 100% of the offensive snaps as he usually does or will Mike Shula work him in slowly in an attempt to keep Olsen from reinjuring his foot? How big of an impact will he have in the passing game? Will Newton force him the ball? How many run blocking snaps will Olsen see?
#68 Andrew Norwell, Guard
How does he do against a strong defensive interior led by Muhammad Wilkerson? Can he and Trai Turner control the Jets’ defensive ends or will Newton be scrambling for his life? If Norwell can win against the Jets’ interior defense, the Panthers should see success rushing the football between the left tackle and guard which they did very well against the Dolphins, partially because of Alex Armah and partially because of Andrew Norwell.
#22 Christian McCaffrey, Running Back
With Samuel out, will he be used as a receiver more? Can he make it three games with a touchdown? Will he see more rushes than Jonathan Stewart? How much of the offense will run through him with Olsen returning and Funchess stepping up?
#97 Mario Addison, Defensive End
A strong performance by Addison would go a long way this week. He should be in a position to pressure Josh McCown frequently which in turn could lead to turnovers or at the very least poor decisions that could benefit the Panthers defense greatly.
Four Comparisons
The Panthers passing defense versus The Jets passing offense
The most important area of the field this week will be the deep right area, the Jets have attempted 24 passes in that direction and 57% of Jets passing TDs (8 of 14) and 36.4% of all of their touchdowns (8 of 22) have come from deep right passes. Conversely, the Panthers have had 24 passes thrown to the deep right section of the field and have given up one touchdown and have only allowed 21% of passes to the area to be completed. In other words, the Panthers have done a great job of limiting teams passing deep right, which happens to be where the Jets go to when they need a big play. The Jets have a 79% completion rate on short middle passes on first down for an average of 8.5 yards while the Panthers give up a completion rate of 70% and an average yardage of 9.0 yards on first down passes to the short middle. In order for the Panthers to win, they will have to rely on Luke Kuechly limiting the Jets backfield from finding room in the middle of the field.
The Panthers passing offense versus The Jets passing defense
Opponents have found success passing over the middle of the field against the Jets and in general have done well in the short passing game. The Panthers should run crossing route combinations and other concepts that clear the underneath coverage which allows for easy completions and good yardage. Christian McCaffrey is likely the player who will see the most success as a receiver against the Jets because of the fact he is used as an underneath receiver that attacks the center of the field while his teammates pull defenders to the sidelines and deep. If the Panthers are going to take shots downfield they need to avoid throwing to the deep right section of the field because the Jets have allowed a completion rate of 32% compared to the Panthers 27% completed passes to that section of the field. In other words, it is highly unlikely the Panthers complete a pass deep right in this game.
The Panthers rushing defense versus The Jets rushing offense
The Jets don’t have a great rushing offense which could end with the Panthers having an easy time defending the run; since the Jets put up 256 rushing yards against Jacksonville earlier in the season they have only rushed for 100 yards one time against Buffalo in Week 9. The biggest thing that the Jets do well in the run game is make defenses pay for poor tackling technique and discipline; if the Panthers play disciplined run defense and keep the Jets running backs from successfully bouncing outside then they should control the game.
The Panthers rushing offense versus The Jets rushing defense
Rush up the middle, not the edges appears to be a successful strategy against the Jets, so we could see a lot more CAP, Armah, and Stewart because of this. The Jets have allowed opponents to rush for over 100 yards in six of their ten games this season, but have allowed seven plays of 20 yards or more and three of 40 yards. In other words, they have done a great job of containing rushing attacks but have allowed a handful of large plays that make their statistics look worse than they actually are. If the Panthers can take advantage of the Jets’ poor rushing defense along the right edge of the line then it could open up the passing attack downfield for Cam Newton on play-action.
Three Matchups To Watch
Kurt Coleman vs The Deep Ball
As mentioned above the Jets have had a fair amount of success throwing the ball deep; this generally happens when they can force one-on-one situations along the boundary. The best way to stop this is playing disciplined zone coverage which would allow Coleman to make a play on deep passes without giving up much in terms of deep coverage. Coleman will need to create a turnover or two and, more importantly, help keep the Jets’ passing attack from pushing the ball downfield in order for the Panthers to win on Sunday.
Muhammad Wilkerson vs Tyler Larsen
Wilkerson has been the driving force behind the Jets defensive front for years. If the Panthers are going to get their rushing game going for the third week in a row, they will need Larsen to step up and make an impact as a run blocker. In the event that Larsen’s injury leaves him inactive it will be up to Andrew Norwell to take on Wilkerson one-on-one while Greg Van Roten and Trai Turner team up against Steve McLendon. With both players questionable, not to mention Ryan Kalil, this matchup will be in flux right up until game time.
Bilal Powell vs Thomas Davis
Powell has done well when linebackers take poor angles trying to tackle him and when his offensive line has found him room to gain momentum. If the Panthers are going to control this game, Davis will need to step up and keep Powell from jump-starting their offense.
Two Plays That Will Matter
Jets’ Offense: Go Route On Right Side
If the Panthers leave Robby Anderson on an island with James Bradberry, and he gets the “dirty eyes” and starts looking into the backfield, Anderson will blow by him for a long play. The Panthers need to tilt their coverage towards Anderson, but if they’re using a single-high look or blitzing a member of the secondary, Bradberry needs to be sure not to let the speedster behind him. The second-year player has five scores this year, and would love to add another one this weekend.
Panthers’ Offense: Read Option
If the Panthers continue to use the read-option effectively, they may be able to break some big plays in the running game for either Cam Newton, who had a 69-yard scamper against the Dolphins in which the entire defense looked fooled, or either of their running backs. Newton’s tendency to hold the ball for longer this season has caused even more confusion for defensive ends, and this has once again become a huge part of the Panthers offense.
One Prediction: Christian McCaffrey records another receiving touchdown
McCaffrey is the Panthers best route runner and likely the biggest beneficiary of the Jets’ poor short middle passing defense. If anyone can capitalize on passes over the middle it will be McCaffrey.
