Yes, Aaron Rodgers is back. Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on how you want to look at it) for the Panthers, he’ll be the third quarterback this season that is a lock for the Hall of Fame that they’ll face; the good news is that the Packers’ offensive line should have some real issues protecting Rodgers, especially a version of the two-time MVP that is fresh off “put 13 screws in my clavicle” surgery. But overlooking a desperate team with talent on both sides of the ball would be a mistake; a team that can rely on Rodgers throwing to Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb is capable of putting up a lot of points. Can the Packers stop Jonathan Stewart and a rejuvenated Panthers running game that has gone over the 200-yard mark in three of the last five weeks? Can the Panthers carry over their six-sack performance against the Vikings against an offensive line that has allowed their quarterback to be sacked 43 (yes, 43!) times in 13 games? Will Greg Olsen have an impact? Can the Panthers get deep on the Packers? A lot of questions to answer this Sunday; as always, our five-part preview to help you sift through the keys to the game:
Five Players To Watch
#58 Thomas Davis, Linebacker
After sealing the game by picking off Aaron Rodgers the last time these teams played, can he turn in another strong performance? He will need to be on his A-game this year due to the Packers rookie Jamaal Williams, who has quietly been a fantastic back the past month, averaging 109 total yards in the five games since he has become the feature back. If Davis can slow Williams down as a rusher and keep him in check as a receiver, the Packers offense will have a much harder time moving the football
#65 Amini Silatolu, Guard
Trai Turner is officially out for Sunday’s matchup and Amini Silatolu will start in his place. Can Silatolu replace Turner adequately? Will he be able to play similarly to how he did in 2014 when Turner was a rookie? Will he eventually be replaced by Taylor Moton or Tyler Larsen if he struggles? Will Daryl Williams be able to survive without Turner, his security blanket, next to him?
#99 Kawann Short, Defensive Tackle
The Packers have been phenomenal at rushes up the middle this year, it will be up to Short to penetrate the backfield and wreak havoc. How Short performs will have a big impact on the Packers game plan with Rodgers just coming back from injury; if Short can turn in a great performance and get to Rodgers early and often, the Packers will be forced to call more quick passes and screens which can be dangerous if the defense knows it is coming.
#59 Luke Kuechly, Linebacker
Kuechly had an uncharacteristically bad game last week, which he can’t have this week and expect the team to win. If Kuechly has another off day then the rest of the defense will need to step up in a big way to slow Rodgers and company down; if Kuechly comes back strong then he takes away the Packers best passing lane, which happens to be the middle of the field. Furthermore, watching Kuechly and Rodgers battle pre-snap should be phenomenal; the battle between Kuechly and an all-pro quarterback is consistently fascinating.
#1 Cam Newton, Quarterback
Newton has been having a difficult time connecting with his receivers on deep passes this season and if the Panthers are going to find success against a good Packers’ defense that is going to need to change. Newton is a must-watch player almost every week simply because of his unique skillset and the Panthers’ reliance on his talents to lift the offense, but this week, it isn’t due to his rushing ability but his lack of chemistry with his receivers on deep balls. If Newton can find a rhythm and connect on a few passes downfield, that will open up the offense significantly. If not, then the Panthers will need to get a strong performance out of Jonathan Stewart to keep the defense on its heels.
Four Comparisons
Packers Passing Offense vs Panthers Passing Defense
With Rodgers coming back, it is hard to pin down where exactly on the field the Packers will attack in the passing game. In all likelihood, they will stick to what has worked, which is getting the ball in the hands of their playmakers quickly. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are a great duo that will give the Panthers fits, but if Carolina plays more press against the two they should see more success against short passes which is the Packers likely plan of attack.
Packers Rushing Offense vs Panthers Rushing Defense
Jamaal Williams changed the Packers entire offense, which has lacked a true rushing threat for years, and has made them a more dangerous offense; prior to week 14 the Packers had allowed only one tackle for a loss while rushing behind the center and showed a penchant for finding success rushing up the gut in general. If the Panthers are going to contain Williams, it will start with Short and Lotulelei stuffing lanes and forcing Williams to bounce outside which is where he is more likely to be taken down for a loss or minimal gain.
Panthers Passing Offense vs Packers Passing Defense
The Packers have been the worst team in the league at defending passes to the short left area of the field. If the Panthers offense is going to move the ball they will need to find success throwing quick passes to the left; the Panthers best plan to find success throwing the football is to force the defense to spread horizontally and then take shots down the field. If Cam Newton can hit Greg Olsen deep, the Panthers offense should find momentum and be able to carry the defense if Rodgers is able to find success on the offensive side of the ball. The matchups show that Carolina should be able to score points against this Green Bay defense, while the defense should (emphasis on should) be able to slow down Rodgers to keep their total lower than the Panthers.
Panthers Rushing Offense vs Packers Rushing Defense
This is where the most important matchup of the game comes from; the Packers 3-4 defensive front is extremely talented and the Panthers offensive line just lost one of their best run blockers in Trai Turner. The Panthers offensive line will need to be able to open up rushing lanes for Jonathan Stewart in order for the offense to really move; the best way to do this will be once again to spread the defense horizontally with a number of pitches and off tackle rushes before flipping back to power runs up the middle once the defense is forced to account for the horizontal playcalls.
Three Matchups To Watch
Julius Peppers vs David Bakhtiari
Oh you thought that I wasn’t going to mention the former Packer this week? Well, don’t worry, because this matchup between former teammates should be one of the best matchups all year. Peppers has turned back the clock and has looked like a 27-year old for most of the season, while Bakhtiari has been one of the best offensive tackles in football; when these two collide it will be a truly masterful dance after the amount they have practiced against each other over Peppers’ years in Green Bay and the fact that they have both been on top of their game for what seems like ages. This matchup is must watch TV and, more importantly, who wins it will go a long way in deciding which team comes out on top.
Daryl Worley vs Jordy Nelson
With James Bradberry likely facing off against Randall Cobb or Davante Adams, Worley is left with a huge task in defending Jordy Nelson. These two will be a rough-and-tumble matchup that may look more like linemen facing off due to both players size and Worley’s physicality. If Worley can win this matchup, the defense will be in a much better place in general; if he consistently loses this matchup, the Panthers will need their linebackers to step up in order to allow their safeties to help over the top. The last thing the Panthers want is for Rodgers and Nelson to get into a groove; remember the Chicago game that everyone is talking about? The one that Rodgers returned to after missing seven weeks with a broken collarbone and led the Packers back into the playoffs? Nelson had 161 yards receiving.
Matt Kalil vs Nick Perry
Kalil had a strong performance last week against his former team and will need to step up once again this week due to the Packers overall defensive strength on the edge. Nick Perry and Mike Daniels will likely be the players that Kalil will need to keep in check, both offer a real challenge and Nick Perry is a strong linebacker that needs room to work; if Kalil can keep him from running the arch and creating his own space then Cam Newton should stay upright this week. However, Perry possesses the strength and agility to force Carolina to double team him if they are worried about Kalil losing to him; if this happens then the rest of the line and in particular Amini Silatolu on the other side of the ball will need to step up and win their matchups.
Two Plays That Matter
Packers – Wide Receiver Screens
The best way to protect a quarterback that is just coming back from injury is to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible. The Packers have been utilizing wide receiver screens while Rodgers has been out to give Brett Hundley confidence and allow the offense to run through their talented skill position players. Look for them to continue to lean on them this week, another example of why press coverage will be necessary this week to contain the Packers receivers.
Panthers – Play-action Passes with twins/trips
The best way for Carolina to attack the Packers defense will be in the form of play-action passes and, in particular, passes that load one side with receiving options. These plays have seen great success against Green Bay due to their safeties biting on running plays and the amount that they use zone-coverage concepts. If the Panthers run game can get moving and Carolina can find a man open deep on one or two occasions, they should be in a position of power all game.
One Prediction – Julius Peppers records 2 sacks
The last time Peppers faced the Packers in a Carolina uniform, way back in November of 2008, he recorded two sacks and they eventually won. Since he looks ten years younger, it is reasonable that he could have a similar stat line. I’m not the only one making bold predictions; Devin Funchess thinks he’ll have an even bigger day.
Julius Peppers speaking to reporters in the locker room today, has to pause as Devin Funchess walks by and yells “THREE AND A HALF SACKS ON SUNDAY!”
— The Riot Report (@RRiotReport) December 14, 2017
