After last weeks 35-27 escape against the New York Jets, the Panthers will need to find their rhythm on both offense and defense in order to beat the Saints, the team that began an eight game win streak when they beat Carolina in Charlotte and current leaders of the NFC South; since their Week 3 matchup, the Saints have found a strong running tandem in Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara and the defense has been among the best in the NFL due in no small part to rookie Marshon Lattimore. This matchup will go a long way in determining who wins the NFC South with both teams coming in with 8-3 records and the Saints owning the head-to-head tiebreaker due to their win at Bank of America Stadium. If they emerge victorious from New Orleans, the Panthers lead the division. Lose, and they are almost certainly fighting for a wild card spot. As always, our five-part preview:
Five Players To Watch
#26 Daryl Worley, Cornerback
Last time the Panthers played the Saints, Daryl Worley gave up two touchdowns and looked poor for large portions of the game. On the first touchdown, Michael Thomas threw him to the ground and Worley was the one who was flagged for pass interference. But on the second one, Worley bit hard on play-action which allowed Brandon Coleman to get behind him for an easy touchdown. Besides that play, he was caught off guard a number of times and was lucky that the rest of the defense was having just as hard of a time against the Saints or he would have been the scapegoat for the loss. If the Panthers are going to win this time around, Worley will have to play more disciplined and make a bigger impact in coverage than he did the first time around.
#20 Kurt Coleman, Safety
Alvin Kamara bounced a run to the outside and took the ball to the house to seal the win over Carolina in Week 3 and Coleman could have prevented it. Coleman took a sharp angle towards Kamara instead of playing it safe; because of this, Kamara had more or less a clean look to the end zone. If Coleman plays it safe and aims more for the sideline then Kamara either meets him in the open field or cuts inside where there are Panthers defenders waiting to pounce. Instead, Coleman goes downhill and Kamara uses Bradberry and his blocker to force Coleman to stop and change directions. This wasn’t the only instance that Coleman’s aggressive nature has cost the Panthers defense this season and if the Panthers are going to contain Drew Brees on Sunday then Coleman will need to find a better balance.
#22 Christian McCaffrey, Running Back
Christian McCaffrey had a breakout game against the Saints in Week 3 with over 100 receiving yards, while he has grown more comfortable in the Panthers offense and Mike Shula has slowly figured out how to utilize him better, he hasn’t recorded over 100 yards since. How McCaffrey does this weekend will give us a strong indication of how the offense has grown since September. If he can put together another game in which he totals over 100 receiving yards then the Panthers offense could be in a great place moving forward; however, if the Panthers still insist on using him on halfback dives and other rushes up the middle then we will know that the playcalling has not evolved over the last nine weeks.
#96 Wes Horton, Defensive End
With the news of Charles Johnson being suspended for four games due to performance-enhancing drugs, Horton becomes a must-watch player. Horton will be the player asked to anchor in place of Johnson and will need to step up against Ryan Ramczyk who has had a strong rookie campaign so far.
#75 Matt Kalil, Left Tackle
Kalil looked absolutely lost against Cam Jordan the last time the two met and if he can’t put together a strong effort against the ultra-talented defensive end then Cam Newton will be scrambling for his life once again. The best course of action is to give Kalil as much help as possible and hope that his experience with the team gives him better situational awareness which was what hurt him the most in Week 3.
Four Comparisons
New Orleans’ Passing Attack vs Carolina’s Passing Defense
The Saints have had a great amount of success passing to the right side of the field this season and particularly against the Panthers. In their Week 3 matchup, Drew Brees threw for 95 yards (7.3 yard average) and two touchdowns to the short right side of the field on 11/13 passing (85%), the only other area of the field that the Saints attempted more than three passes was the short left where Brees went 6/8 (75%) for 21 yards (2.6 yard average). The good news for Carolina is that besides that game, they have only given up a 63% completion rate, 4.9 yard average, 0 TDs and recorded three interceptions in the short right quadrant of the field. In other words, they have been relatively great defending that area of the field besides the game against the Saints.
New Orleans’ Rushing Attack vs Carolina’s Rushing Defense
The Panthers will have their hands full stopping the run this weekend. The Saints have averaged 8.8 yards per carry and scored four touchdowns off runs around the left end, while they rank second and third rushing behind the center and right guard respectively. In other words, the Panthers will need to not only stop a strong interior rushing attack led by Mark Ingram but they will also need to limit Alvin Kamara’s ability to attack the edges of the field. The Panthers defense may have lost Charles Johnson but his replacement, Wes Horton, has been a solid run-stopping defender and will need to step up big-time if the Panthers are going to win.
Carolina’s Passing Attack vs New Orleans’ Passing Defense
The Panthers have done rather poorly when throwing to the short right area of the field, averaging 5.3 yards per pass which ranks 22nd in the NFL, and should avoid said area of the field on Sunday. The last time these two teams matched up, the Saints recorded two interceptions when Newton targeted the area of the field and outside of that matchup, the Saints have recorded three other interceptions on passes to the short right. Instead, the Panthers should consider taking shots downfield in particular to the left side due to their 4:1 touchdown to interception ratio and 15.2 yard average which ranks third in the NFL in that area.
Carolina’s Rushing Attack vs New Orleans’ Rushing Defense
The Saints have been among the worst teams at stopping inside runs this season and the Panthers offense has rushed inside on 54% of their rushing plays and have seen significantly more success rushing the football since the Saints game. The Panthers only attempted two rushes behind the right guard the last time they faced the Saints, but should make a concerted effort to rush to the right and in particular behind Trai Turner due to the 6.6 yard per carry the Saints have given up to rushes behind the right guard, which ranks third most in the league.
Three Matchups
Luke Kuechly vs Drew Brees
Every time these two face off against each other, they will be a matchup to watch. Kuechly and Brees have produced some of the best battles since Kuechly came into the league and this week they are primed to be the decisive battle. If Kuechly can identify the play quickly enough and get his men in a position to make a difference, the Saints offense will sputter; if Brees can keep Kuechly off-balanced and guessing, the Panthers offense will need to step up in order for the Panthers to win this game.
Devin Funchess vs Ken Crawley
Crawley has the size to match Funchess and the speed to mirror him; as such, how Funchess performs against him will tell us a lot about the Panthers passing attack. If Funchess can find open space against a cornerback seemingly tailor-made to stop him, the future is bright and Cam Newton should have a better day than his three interception performance the last go around. If Crawley can mirror Funchess and bully him, then Newton will have to look elsewhere for help in the passing game and with Olsen a possible scratch his only options could be Kaelin Clay and Russell Shepard, neither of which have been inspiring so far this season.
Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara vs Thomas Davis/Shaq Thompson
This is a double matchup for a number of reasons, the biggest being that both Ingram and Kamara, as well as Davis and Thompson are best utilized as tandems. Ingram’s strength and balance combined with Kamara’s explosive nature and speed have created a dangerous backfield in New Orleans that the Panthers may not be able to stop. However, if the Panthers are going to stop these two it will be because of Thompson and Davis who both possess power, speed, instincts, and agility. Davis and Thompson will need to contain Kamara as a receiver and limit his ability to hit the edges of the field while also keeping Ingram from powering through the middle of the defense. If they succeed in doing those three things then the rest of the defense can focus on stopping Drew Brees which is a hard enough task on its own.
Two Plays That Matter
Saints – Twins Right Trips Left
The Saints don’t have a specific play that will be a key to the game; instead, they have a route combination that they utilized well against the Panthers and will likely rely on this week. When the Saints have two receivers wide right and a bunch formation of some kind on the left they like to run high/low concepts where the outside receiver will either curl, run a fade or cut inside while the inside receiver will curl or break outside. This concept works especially well against the Panthers because it overloads the right zone and forces defenders to either abandon their zone to help or leave those player open in order to maintain zone integrity. The Panthers will need to run more man-based coverage concepts against the Saints if they want to limit these types of plays, but if they do play man more, the safeties will need to be on top of their game or else Brees and company will start stretching the field vertically.
Panthers – Triple Option
The Panthers have been fairly successful running the triple option this season and it produced a few of their biggest plays in Week 3; Jonathan Stewart, Christian McCaffrey, and Cam Newton are all dangerous rushers and defending all three of them is something opponents are still trying to figure out. If the Panthers can find success rushing the football out of the triple option, they might be able to expand the passing game with run-pass options and play-action passes both of which Newton has ran well since entering the league.
One Prediction – Daryl Worley Records an Interception
Worley has been a hit-or-miss corner for the better part of the season and Week 3 was no exception. Brees will likely try to pick on Worley this week as well but if Worley can keep his balance, he should be in a position to make a real impact this time around.
