The first of four possible “all the marbles” games happens in New Orleans on Sunday, against a team that has been a house of horrors for multiple Panthers, from Cam Newton having perhaps his worst game of the year in Week 3 to Thomas Davis having the “worst tackling days” of his career against Alvin Kamara and the Saints. Can the Panthers bounce back and fulfill the false “it’s hard to beat a team three times” adage? Will the mistakes that have plagued this team throughout the year keep them from advancing, or will they continue the franchise tradition of making the divisional round of the playoffs in every appearance? As always, our five-part preview:
Five Players To Watch
#1 Cam Newton, Quarterback
Will we see Week 3 Cam or Week 13 Cam? In Week 3, Newton threw zero touchdowns to three interceptions; but by Week 13, Newton threw two touchdowns and no picks. While he only threw for a total of 350 yards between the two performances, his Week 13 play was significantly better than his play in the first Panthers/Saints matchup. If the Panthers are going to win, they will need Newton to play as well as or better than he did in Week 13. Even one turnover may be one too many against a Saints offense that is eager to capitalize on mistakes.
#26 Daryl Worley, Cornerback
Much like Newton, Worley’s play was very different between the two contests against the Saints this year. However, the difference for Worley was not due to inconsistent play, but rather due to Worley’s growth over the season. Early in the season, Worley looked like he had not changed as a player since his rookie year, but as the season progressed, Worley has shown growth; more importantly, he has been able to translate that growth into real production, namely in the form of turnovers. Worley will play a big role against the Saints due to his run stopping ability and his ability to play strong man-to-man coverage against bigger receivers like Michael Thomas.
#70 Trai Turner, Right Guard
There appears to be a trend when it comes to how the Panthers have done this season. Half of the team played strong at the beginning of the season, while the other half has played better the further into the season the team has gotten. Turner belongs to the former group and hopefully, his rest over the last few weeks due to his concussion means that he will be ready to perform like he did towards the beginning of the season. If Turner can find his form, then the Panthers offensive line becomes very dangerous with he and Williams on the right and Norwell and Ryan Kalil manning the middle.
#92 Vernon Butler, Defensive Tackle
No Panther has gone under the radar more this season than Vernon Butler; some have insanely labeled the second-year player a bust already, which is unfathomable considering he is ending his second season in the league while providing relief for one of the best defensive tackles in football. Butler has slowly seen an increase in snap counts as the season has progressed and has slowly seen an increase in production and impact over that time. If Butler can continue to show growth and perform at a high level against the Saints high-powered offense, then the Panthers defense will be able to keep players fresh and provide a consistent pass rush without giving up much against the run game.
#17 Devin Funchess, Wide Receiver
Since Kelvin Benjamin has been traded, Funchess has been inconsistent, at best, in terms of production. In Week 13, the Saints held Funchess to four receptions for 60 yards and made him more or less a nonfactor for a large chunk of the game, and that was without Pro Bowler Marshon Lattimore. Funchess will need to step up and give Newton a reliable target with Olsen and Newton not being on the same page since his return. If Funchess steps up and plays his best football, the Panthers offense should be able to move the ball against a stout Saints secondary.
Four Statistics That Matter
All four of the Saints rushing touchdowns against Carolina have come on runs off the right side of the line
This means that the Panthers need to load the right side and force the Saints to rush left since that seems to end better for Carolina; it also means that the linebackers will key in on the right side more which in turn means that the left cornerback (usually Bradberry) will need to tackle well in space and get off his block quickly in order to mitigate the lack of bodies on the left. The Panthers cornerbacks will be tested by Alvin Kamara’s ability to hit the edges all day, if the Panthers don’t tackle at the point of first contact, the defense will be in for a long day.
Three of their four passing touchdowns have come on passes to the short right
At this point it should be obvious, the Saints like to attack the right side of the field; as such, the Panthers will need to get great play out of their right cornerback on every play. The Panthers will also rely on the strong side linebacker, likely having a safety drift to the right in order to slow down the Saints attack. The biggest problem will come when the Saints decide to run play-action to the right and pass to the left, due to the fact that the Panthers linebackers will lean right; this leaves the left corner on an island, possibly without a safety over top, which is a quick way to give up a touchdown to Ted Ginn, Jr. This is how it happened in Week 3.
The Panthers rushed for 82 yards on 9 rushes around the left end, and have done a good enough job run blocking to not allow a single tackle for a loss on run plays.
This was a little surprising, but the Panthers are better off when they rush around the left end than they are when they rush anywhere else. If the Panthers can attack the edges with more consistency, possibly with a backfield of Christian McCaffrey and Fozzy Whittaker, then they should see more rushing success.
Newton only completed 12 of his 25 attempts to the short left side, but those 12 completions resulted in 97 yards and a touchdown with 0 interceptions.
No shock here, Newton is at his best when he doesn’t throw an interception. In order for the Panthers passing attack to be a positive this week, they will need to rely on quick timing routes in order to beat the Saints quick secondary. The risks associated with timing routes include pick-sixes due to jumped routes and that’s why Newton will need to be at his best, if he can look off linebackers and disguise his intentions before delivering bullet-speed passes, the passing game should see an uptick in production.
Three Matchups
Disclaimer: Daryl Williams/Matt Kalil vs Cameron Jordan and Luke Kuechly vs Alvin Kamara will not be addressed here in an effort to look at the game as a whole. These two matchups are make or break matchups for both teams and have been the focus of much pregame analysis to date.
Michael Thomas vs James Bradberry
Thomas is a big strong receiver that is going to give the Panthers fits for years to come and it will be on James Bradberry to limit his involvement this Sunday. If Thomas wins this matchup, the Saints offense will be able to score at will, due to their combination of speed and size at most skill positions. If Bradberry can keep pace with Thomas and force Drew Brees to hold onto the ball longer, the Panthers might be able to create a turnover or two, which would create a huge swing in momentum and thus give the offense a needed boost.
Greg Olsen vs Manti Te’o
Olsen was visibly frustrated last week against Atlanta and if the Panthers are going to have success in the postseason, Olsen will need to get on the same page with Newton moving forward. Interestingly enough, Olsen would have been covered by his former teammate A.J. Klein had he not been put on injured reserve, and as such, this could be a matchup the Panthers look to frequently with reserve Manti Te’o taking Klein’s place. If Olsen can get the better of Te’o, then Newton will be able to spread the ball better and quicker, which in turn should open up the rushing attack and in turn allow the Panthers to move the ball better. If Te’o is able to make Olsen nonexistent and Olsen continues to show frustration, we could see the Panthers start limiting his role in the offense in the second half.
Ken Crawley vs Brenton Bersin
Devin Funchess is the Panthers X receiver, but that doesn’t mean that he is the most important receiver on the roster this week. Brenton Bersin has been the most productive receiver for Carolina over the last two weeks and he will need to step up against Crawley, who has been nothing short of amazing this season for New Orleans. If Bersin can find space, his chemistry with Newton will allow the Panthers to move the ball efficiently. If he can’t, then Newton will be in trouble and the Panthers may need to push McCaffrey into a bigger role as a wide receiver.
Two Games in Review
Week 3:
The good news from the Week 3 loss is that it is in the past and the Panthers are a different team than they were in September. Newton looked terrible at times and his supporting cast didn’t help much; one player in particular looked great, though, and that was Christian McCaffrey. He had a field day as a receiver and seemed unstoppable, yet the Panthers didn’t feed him too much during the game. On the other side of the ball, Mario Addison and Julius Peppers seemingly couldn’t get to Brees with any consistency and Daryl Worley looked like he was out of his league in the secondary. All in all, the offense and defense turned in some of the worst football that they played all season.
Week 13:
Week 13 showed marked improvement across the board for both units but the improvement wasn’t enough to stop the Saints. Newton looked significantly better, especially as a passer, which can be attributed to his shoulder being healthy. Outside of Newton, the offense didn’t look different, but the defense saw improvement from multiple positions that seem to be continuing to grow as the Panthers enter the playoffs. Vernon Butler, Daryl Worley and Mike Adams all saw marked improvement that made it harder for the Saints to put up points in bunches; their growth in terms of role in the Panthers defense should provide the Panthers an edge against the Saints’ potent offense this week. If those three players along with Mario Addison can turn in strong performances while the rest of the defense plays standard, the offense shouldn’t need to score thirty points to win this week.
One Prediction – The Panthers hold the Saints under 24 points and Win
This defense has been slowly growing and molding to face off against some of the best offenses in the NFL and none have been harder to corral than the Saints. Their red zone performance in the second half of the season has been nothing short of spectacular as they’ve only allowed eight touchdowns in 25 trips for opponents. If they can limit the Saints to field goals instead of touchdowns, they may be in a position to slow the Saints down, especially if they can force a turnover.
