With the deadline for final roster cutdowns coming tomorrow, everybody and their grandmother seems to have a different view on what the eventual 53 man roster will look like, and while my grandmother has never watched a snap of the NFL, we watched the game together last night and formulated our own views on what the Panthers’ roster will look like when Sunday rolls around. She has a strong feeling Greg Olsen is making the team, but other than that, most of the analysis is mine.
Offensive Skill Positions
On the roster: Cam Newton, Taylor Heinicke, Christian McCaffrey, CJ Anderson, Cameron Artis-Payne, Alex Armah, Greg Olsen, Ian Thomas, Chris Manhertz, Devin Funchess, Torrey Smith, Jarius Wright, Curtis Samuel, DJ Moore and Damiere Byrd
Practice Squad: Garret Gilbert, Elijah Hood, Jason Vander Laan and Jamaal Jones
Cam Newton is going to start at quarterback, Christian McCaffrey and CJ Anderson are likely going to carry the load at running back, Greg Olsen and Ian Thomas look to be the tight end pairing for the foreseeable future and Devin Funchess, Torrey Smith, Jarius Wright, Curtis Samuel and DJ Moore are all but certain to be on the roster when the first game of the regular season rolls around; none of these should be controversial statements. Behind those guys, things are at least somewhat less clear.
While not quite entering this category, players such as Cameron Artis-Payne and Alex Armah have likely done enough to make the roster as well, with Artis-Payne’s production over the past few seasons being hard to ignore from an efficiency point of view, and Armah’s ability to contribute as a blocker, ball carrier and receiver from multiple positions giving the offense an appealing degree of flexibility when he takes the field. Chris Manhertz might not have seen the field during the preseason, but with Ian Thomas showing promising early signs the Panthers will likely keep him on the roster – none of the other tight ends have done enough to surpass him.
The two biggest questions when it comes to the offensive skill positions are with regards to the depth at quarterback and Damiere Byrd’s place as a sixth receiver. While the back-up quarterback battle is likely far from over, Taylor Heinicke appears to have overtaken Garrett Gilbert for the second quarterback spot, and with the depth issues on the offensive line, the Panthers could, as they did last season, initially cut down to just two quarterbacks. With Daryl Williams likely going on IR, at least for the short term, the Panthers could well look to add another quarterback who clears waivers, as they did last season with Brad Kaaya, but for the initial cut at least, Garrett Gilbert could find himself on the outside looking in.
When Byrd is concerned, I think the Panthers make room, as Byrd has shown the ability to contribute both as a receiver and as a return man, and while his production might not match this ability, it is unlikely that carrying a seventh linebacker or an eleventh offensive linesman will have the ability to make the same impact as Byrd can, as a returner if nothing else.
While this marks the end for the players I expect to make the active roster, there are of course practice squad spots to be won as well. Garrett Gilbert might not sneak his way past waivers; but if he does, the Panthers would probably be wise to bring him back to the practice squad, with the potential to bring him back if need be as the season develops – similar what they did a season ago. Kenjon Barner might have outshone Hood so far this preseason, but it would be surprising to see Barner clear waivers and Hood would give them an emergency option should something happen to Anderson, with the potential for him to develop into a genuine roster option in a year’s time. Vander Laan impressed during the early preseason, and his move to tight end having played quarterback in college is always going to give him the sparkle of untapped potential, and while he hasn’t done enough to surpass Chris Manhertz this offseason, with another year of work at the position he could be seen as a far more legitimate roster option come 2019. Finally, and coming as something of a luxury addition if they do carry six receivers on the roster, Jamaal Jones might not have put up huge numbers this preseason, but he has looked good throughout drills and given the injuries at wide receiver a year ago – it would be wise for the Panthers to have some insurance on the practice squad.
Offensive Line
On The Roster: Matt Kalil, Greg Van Roten, Ryan Kalil, Trai Turner, Taylor Moton, Daryl Williams, Jeremiah Sirles, Brendan Mahon, Amini Silatolu and Tyler Larsen
Practice Squad: Quinterrius Eatmon and Taylor Hearn
This is the bit that is seriously hard to predict, as the lack of return timetables for Matt Kalil, Amini Silatolu and Jeremiah Sirles leaves a lot of cards still up in the air. The interior of the offensive line at least possess some degree of certainty with Van Roten, Ryan Kalil and Trai Turner the expected starters and Brendan Mahon and Tyler Larsen all but certain to make the roster as depth pieces with the potential to contribute in more significant ways down the road. The Panthers are likely to carry another guard which will presumably be Amini Silatolu if he is set to return in the next couple of weeks, but should he be head to IR or free agency with a longer term absence, the question then moves on to Jeremiah Sirles.
Sirles is really the key to the offensive line group, as his ability to play both tackle and guard would go a long way to solving the Panthers short-term injury issues. If he can play, then he almost certainly makes the roster, either at guard if Silatolue misses out or at tackle. Similarly, if Matt Kalil is healthy to start opposite Taylor Moton at tackle, then the Panthers might well be happy to carry Sirles in the knowledge that he might not be back in time to face the Cowboys. However, if both Kalil and Sirles are going to be out against the Cowboys, then the Panthers are going to need to sign a new tackle, as Clausell has simply not developed into anything like an NFL starter.
Confused?
In a best case scenario, both Kalil and Sirles suit up to play the Cowboys and the Panthers go with the grouping above, but if either of them are unable to go and almost certainly if neither can, expect somebody to make way for a healthy body, at least in the short term; most likely that would be Sirles or Silatolu heading to the waiver wire.
In terms of practice squad spots, the Panthers don’t appear to have anybody on the roster who could be stashed as emergency depth or else they’d be on the active roster, but Eatmon has been quietly impressive when getting reps at tackle throughout the preseason and Hearn appears to be the clear next choice at guard despite some wobbles. That being said, this is something of a stab in the dark as the offensive line depth chart, behind the immediate starters, is highly unclear.
Front Seven
On the Roster: Mario Addison, Wes Horton, Julius Peppers, Marquis Haynes, Daeshon Hall, Zach Moore, Kawann Short, Dontari Poe, Vernon Butler, Kyle Love, Luke Kuechly, Shaq Thompson, David Mayo, Jermaine Carter, Jared Norris and Andre Smith.
Practice Squad: Efe Obada, Bryan Cox and Kendrick Norton
Ineligible: Thomas Davis
As with the offensive skill positions, a number of these players are certain to be on the week one roster. Addison, Horton, Peppers, Short, Butler, Kuechly and Thompson all return as established contributors, with Dontari Poe also being safe as a high value free agent. While not quite as high status, players like Love and Mayo are also highly likely to make the roster, as are 2018 mid-round picks Haynes and Carter. Given that the Panthers are unlikely to carry more than sixteen or so players from the front seven, that only leaves four places left up for grabs.
While Daeshon Hall has had somewhat of an understated preseason, he has looked solid on tape and given that he was a developmental third-round pick a year ago who missed a season with injury, it would be something of a surprise for the Panthers to move on from him so soon, especially given the lack of proven production around him at defensive end. At linebacker, with Thomas Davis missing the first four games due to a suspension there is likely a chance for the Panthers to extend the battle for the final linebacker spot to the point where they have to make space for Thomas Davis, and that likely means a battle between established special teams ace Jared Norris and athletic developmental pick Andre Smith. Long term, Andre Smith is almost certainly the better option, but the question is likely to come down to whether they feel handing Smith a significant special teams role from the get-go.
DE Zach Moore
The final front seven spot is certainly going to be close, Efe Obada and Bryan Cox, Jr have both had decent preseasons, but with Obada being able to be stashed as an international prospect for another season and Cox lacking immediate impact with Horton and Peppers on the roster, Zach Moore has a real chance to sneak onto the 53. Moore might not be the biggest name on the Panters’ roster, but he has seen a lot of snaps throughout the preseason at both defensive end and defensive tackle, and given the suggestions that Eric Washington is going to play with defensive line formations more than in previous years, Moore’s ability to line up everywhere from 4-3 defensive end to 3-technique will likely come in handy. There is an outside chance that Ben Jacobs makes the roster, but if he couldn’t make the roster against a far thinner group in 2017 it seems unlikely that he will sneak in in 2018.
In terms of the practice squad players, Obada, should he clear waivers, will almost certainly be designated as an international development option, and should Cox do so as well, it would be hard to imagine the Panthers not wanting to bring him back. Kendrick Norton might not have done enough to surpass Kyle Love as the fourth defensive tackle, but he has made some nice plays during the preseason games and has a high enough ceiling to merit continued interest. If he clears waivers, he should be a obvious choice for the practice squad.
Defensive Backs
On the Roster: James Bradberry, Donte Jackson, Captain Munnerlyn, Kevon Seymour, Corn Elder, Rashaan Gaulden, Mike Adams, Da’Norris Searcy and Colin Jones
Practice Squad: Lorenzo Doss and Demetrious Cox
Bradberry and Adams return as unquestioned starters, and day two draft picks Donte Jackson and Rashaan Gaulden are almost certain members of the 2018 roster. Searcy almost certainly makes the roster as affordable safety depth at the very least and it would actually cost the Panthers an additional $2.5m to release Munnerlyn this season. Add to that the fact that the Panthers have used Colin Jones as the clear fourth safety throughout the preseason and that Ron Rivera all but stated that Seymour job was safe on Tuesday and the defensive back group is almost set in stone going into the roster cutdowns. The one uncertainty that remains is who will make the roster as the fifth cornerback.
This has been something of a close battle between Elder and Doss, and while the latter started off strong, the former has performed more impressively during the preseason games and likely has the edge at this point. However, should he make his way past waivers, the Panthers would almost certainly love to have Doss return as a practice squad member; the Panthers’ coaching staff also seem to like the potential they see in Cox, and while he has done little of note so far this preseason he has as good a chance of making the practice squad as any other safety on the roster.
Special Teams
On the Roster: Graham Gano, Michael Palardy and JJ Jansen
Yep, no surprises here.
This is hardly a scientific process, but a lot of the Panthers’ roster is likely set in stone at this point – while the injuries on the offensive line have thrown a spanner into the works and a few fringe position battles remain, there is quite a lot of certainty about what the 2018 Panthers’ roster will look like. Whether this prediction ends up being right or not, the fact that the Panthers are likely to end up having to cut somebody who would or did make the roster last season should be seen as a real positive as the regular season opener approaches.
