The Panthers have a lot of legitimate reasons for their offense not to be completely clicking right now.
Even without their starting quarterback, left tackle and right guard and starting a sixth-round rookie at left tackle, it had been hard to overstate just how much the Panthers had struggled at putting long drives together through five weeks. Going into today’s 37-26 win over the Bucs, they had just one scoring drive of ten plays or more, ranking them 31st in long drives and 32nd in long drive conversion. The Panthers had done just enough to win over the past three games, but if they are going to push on and look to compete for the playoffs, they are going to need to sustain drives on offense. And after a pair of three-and-outs to start the game in London as their first six offensive plays produced -2 total yards, that’s exactly what they did.
But how?
Getting Some Breathing Room
The Panthers finished their 99-yard drive, only the fourth in franchise history with four consecutive runs, but they also started the drive with a pair of runs to get them off their own goalline and into a manageable third down. Neither of these runs were anything interesting from a schematic point of view, but the fact that the Panthers were willing to continue to run the ball knowing it wasn’t going to generate a chunk play but it might keep them ahead of the chains is something that makes a marked change from much of this season thus far.
As good as the Panthers were on the ground last week, they had a number of runs that didn’t keep pace with the chains in juxtaposition to the big yardage plays by McCaffrey and Bonnafon. On the drive against the Bucs, they didn’t have any of those long runs, but when you’re backed up on your own one yard line, getting to a third-and-4 should be seen as a successful pair of plays.
“It all started on that third down conversion,” said Kyle Allen. “Great run by DJ to get open and get that – it’s huge.”
Of course, getting to third-and-short is nothing if you don’t convert the third down, and while Moore got the ball ripped after he hit the ground, it was those quick outside throws that just weren’t quite there in the early going last week against the Jaguars. It might seem odd to celebrate one solitary first down, but the Panthers haven’t been great on third down this season (they’re 19th in the league) – when offenses start backed up in the way the Panthers did, getting that first first down is what then allows the offense to open up the playbook knowing they don’t have to worry about a safety.
“A defense comes on the field when you’re on the one yard line thinking safety,” said Allen. “Three and out, safety, blocked punt. When you continue to just churn out yards, churn out first downs, and just move the ball, it just wears them down”
“That was huge for us.”
Capitalizing On What The Defense Gives You
The Buccaneers’ defensive game plan was fairly clear from the first snap, with defensive backs down at the line of scrimmage and only one deep safety and the Bucs repeatedly going with two safeties close to the line of scrimmage. What this does is make it easy for the Bucs to crowd the box and prevent long rushing plays, knowing that even if a tackle is broken, there is always going to be a help defender nearby. In the passing game, it makes it hard to work the ball out quickly as the defense is able to condense the space and contract the throwing windows – making it harder to complete passes and increase the risk of such throws.
However, it also presents an opportunity, and it leaves a lot of space deep outside with safeties in no position to make plays on throws towards the sidelines – it was exactly this that the Panthers went after as they moved the ball down the field in a series of long outside passing plays. This was something that Kyle Allen talked about post-game as an area they had highlighted pre-match, based on what the Bucs had done defensively so far this season:
“I think it’s more scheme than anything,” said Allen. “This was a team today that we knew were going to play heavy inside leverage … and we were going to have to make those long throws, have to make those deep over route throws – credit to our receivers today.”
“He’s been very consistent for us – he made the plays we needed,” said Rivera about his quarterback. “When guys can step up when other guys are being focused on, that’s what we’re hoping for. They focused on Christian, Christian wasn’t going to beat them – that’s fine. The other guys around him were able to make plays [and] I think that’s what led to the victory.”
The Panthers tried and failed to work the ball outside the numbers on their second drive, with two incompletions where they asked the receiver to make a play against the defender and were left disappointed, but against this type of coverage, it is worth continuing to take those shots and trust that the averages will shift in your favor. The Panthers did, the averages shifted, and the Panthers got 60 yards on three plays as a result.
Initially, Kyle Allen found Greg Olsen breaking outside for a nice gain of 16, and after another first down via penalty, he was able to find Curtis Samuel for the long gain on the intermediate crossing route for 21 yards. This was then followed by a 23-yard throw to DJ Moore working against one-on-one coverage up against the left sideline.
Turning Yardage Into Points
Touchdown, CMC!
The Panthers had an opportunity at a similarly long drive last week against the Jaguars, but were held scoreless after a turnover on downs when they failed to get the defense to bite on a McCaffrey pass attempt and were then stuffed on fourth down.
This time it was different – by an inch.
The Panthers were able to pick up nine yards on a pair of carries to get the ball to the one-yard line. But this time, rather than looking to get the defense to bite on a play fake, they kept the ball in Kyle Allen’s hands and tried to sneak the ball over – without success.
You don’t need to be an analytics enthusiast to know that when you have a fourth-and-goal with inches to go, it makes sense to go for it. While there might be a temptation to get cute in such a situation, knowing they had a backup QB in the game and an MVP candidate at running back, the Panthers kept the ball on the ground and were able to get the ball across.
“Without question [it was] very disappointing,” said Bucs defensive tackle Ndamakong Suh. “Especially [after] we had them backed up – great situation, great job by our special teams and we’ve got to take advantage of those.”
This was not a drive highlighted by one spectacular play, or a miraculous third down or even anything that was particularly worthy of the highlight reel, but it was a consistent progression down the field – out of the 11 offensive plays, none went for negative yardage – in a season where the Panthers have been without their starting quarterback and could continue to be for some time, the ability to move the ball and control the clock are key.
If this is going to be a re-run of the 2013 defense-heavy season, it’s drives like this that are going to be the key.
