Two games is hardly a streak. Julius Peppers and Kawann Short have both gone two games without a sack, Cameron Artis-Payne has had a carry in two straight, and Devin Funchess has had exactly five catches the past two games. None of these are indicators of how Sunday’s game against the Jets might go; however, in each of the past two games the Panthers have manage to exceed the 200-yard rushing mark, and performances like that can’t be ignored. How can the Panthers look to continue to run the ball effectively again this week in New York?
For the season, the Jets are allowing 4.1 yards per carry, good for sixteenth in the league, or spot-on average. While that might not sound hugely intimidating, that is slightly higher than the Dolphins 4.2 yards allowed per rush; the Panthers just hung 294 rushing yards on them. It’s significantly better than the Falcons at 4.5, against whom the Panthers also broke the 200-yard mark in Week 9. While numbers like this do give a general indication of a run defense’s ability, they fail to account for the strength of the opposition. Against top-10 rushing offenses this year, the Jets have allowed a combined 152 yards per game at 4.4 yards per carry.
Perhaps most interesting about these numbers is how the Jets have struggled to defend quarterbacks rushing, even those thought to be largely pocket passers. Against Blake Bortles, Kevin Hogan, DeShone Kizer and Matt Ryan, the Jets allowed nearly 40 yards a game at 5.7 yards per carry. Given a significant factor in the rejuvenation of the Panthers running game has been the increase in read-options and quarterback called runs, this could be a significant statistic when previewing what might be a successful day for Cam Newton on the ground.
How the Jets deal with a true mobile quarterback is harder to discern, as the only team that truly fit that description so far on the Jets schedule has been the Bills; their two games against Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy were very different. The first saw the Jets give up 190 yards at 4.5 yards per carry, while the second saw them hold the Bills to 63 yards and under three yards per rush. So what can the Panthers learn from this?
Freaky Front
Unlike the Panthers past two opponents and much of the league at this point, the Jets still run a classic 3-4 defense for the most part. This involves three down lineman playing inside the tackles with four linebackers behind; this formation has its various strengths and weaknesses but it is, in theory, fairly simple to attack on the ground. By placing all three down lineman inside the tackles, the Jets make themselves vulnerable to outside runs, where all three lineman are effectively trapped inside.
This puts pressure on the guards, who are either asked to maintain leverage or pull around the end. On the following play, the Bills’ guard hesitates in blocking the tackle, allowing for penetration which in turn prevents the tight end from being able to pull to the run side. Penetration is a strength of the Jets defense; any run which relies on the running back hesitating behind the line will run the risk of being completely blown up, which is what happens here.
The inverse problem can also be an issue, where the end is able to get outside the blocker, allowing for the linebacker to come inside unblocked. This play does seem to lack a coherent strategy (watch the right tackle block literally no one), but the advantage of a 3-4 is that it is easier to disguise which player is attacking which gap, so maintaining leverage is extremely important for blockers.
The final example of the importance of leverage and the ineptitude of the Bills, is the following play. The left side of the line is meant to crash left, sealing off the three down linemen while the right tackle closes the edge. The fullback, tight end, and right guard are then expected to clear the way for the running back going left, but two things go wrong. The first, and hopefully most relevant, is that the center overcommits outside, allowing himself to be beaten back to the inside where the runner is headed.
What is probably more evident is that the right guard decided not to block one of the two defenders but instead flattened the tight end from behind, leaving two unblocked defenders to make the tackle. Plays like this could be hugely successful for the Panthers, especially outside of the red zone where the safeties shouldn’t feature significantly. However, as should hopefully not need to be said, if they fail to execute better than the Bills do here, they are unlikely to reach 100 yards, let alone 200!
Keeping the Options Open
It cannot be overstated how the use of option plays and designed quarterback runs has helped the Panthers’ running game over the past two games. The threat of Cam Newton the runner tends to force the edge defender to hesitate allowing for the running back to get upfield. Conversely, the edge defender might crash the line and Newton is able to tuck the ball and run.
Plays like these might not look hugely complex, but they can be hugely effective. Against the Jets 3-4 defense the Panthers should be able to force New York’s inexperienced linebackers to make decisions like this, allowing for easy yardage.
What they will have to be careful of is their use of the triple option. This isn’t something the Panthers have relied heavily upon, but the Jets defense does have good speed at linebacker and safety and can defend these types of plays well. The Bills tried to run a couple of triple option plays and had limited success, such as on the following play.
It doesn’t help that Thomas Logan (#82) for the Bills completely fails to block his man, but even so, the Jets linebacker is able to run down the play from the back side. While Newton’s tendency to pull the ball late might allow him to get outside here, the second level speed for the Jets defense will allow them to hedge inside in this way. With Greg Olsen hopefully returning, the Panthers can likely expect to see better blocking than this from the tight end, but this speed does have other implications.
At a fundamental level, the 3-4 defense is about creating disruption with the front three and then having the speed behind to make plays on the ball. To have success against this front, the Panthers will need to counter that speed with some of their own and get downhill quickly, something they have done well the past two weeks.
The Jets are not the rollover team that some expected them to be this season, but if the Panthers can keep their game plan relatively simple and execute consistently, then they should be able to have another strong day on the ground.
