Both the Bills and the Panthers head into Week 2 undefeated with similar storylines coming out of their first game. Were the positive takeaways from their performances undeniable looks at the identities of the team for the 2017 season, or did they take advantage of an inferior opponent to produce eye-popping statistics? Will the Panthers’ defense be the type of defense that allows single-digit point totals throughout the season or were the San Francisco 49ers a young team learning an entirely new offensive scheme? Has the Buffalo pass defense actually improved from a group that allowed less than a 60% completion percentage in 2016, or did they face a hapless Jets team that was starting two wide receivers that hadn’t been on the team the week prior?
Let’s begin with our weekly scheme preview from Panthers safety Dezmen Southward, who plays on the Panthers practice squad and tries to imitate the opponents’ scheme to help the Panthers during the week heading into Sunday:
“They’re pretty much the spitting image of our defense, as far as the scheme; they run the same things that we run. There’s little differences here and there, but it’s going to be good this week, because we’re really just able to run our calls. We go and we line up and we do what we do, because that’s what they do. These guys are going to attack you, they’re going to blitz you, they’re going to play some Cover 3, some Cover 4, and they’re going to try and play really, really tight coverage.”
-Dezmen Southward
The Bills boast a completely revamped secondary, signing safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer in the offseason while spending a first-round pick on LSU CB Tre’Davious White and trading for E.J. Gaines. Gaines was in a dogfight for the starting cornerback position in the preseason and beat out current Carolina Panther Kevon Seymour for the job before Seymour was traded to the Panthers ahead of Week 1; the recovery from a 2015 Lisfranc injury for Gaines has been slow and steady for the former LA Ram, and his lack of both speed and size can be an issue on the outside. Gaines is just 5’10” and only weighs 185, so he can be bullied by bigger wide receivers (paging Kelvin Benjamin), and the rookie White tends to have the same issue at only 5’11”. White struggled with being boxed out by bigger wide receivers in college, especially from the slot, so if you see him matched up one-on-one with Benjamin or a split-out Greg Olsen, the Panthers have a recipe for success.
The Bills run a mostly zone scheme designed to confuse the quarterback (check out Vincent Richardson’s detailed tape breakdown of the Bills defense here) with blitzers, which hides some of their flaws in the secondary, but this is a talented group that plays with physicality and speed. Safeties Poyer and Hyde each had an interception last week against the Jets, and McDermott may try to counter the Christian McCaffrey matchup by dropping one of them into the box, as the linebacking corps does not excel at coverage nor tackling, which is a recipe for disaster against a shifty pass-catcher like McCaffrey. While the Bills excel at limiting yards after catch once the ball is caught, if the Panthers can protect Cam Newton and give him time to properly dissect the zone defensive looks, the Panthers should be able to have success in the passing game.
On the other side of the ball, the Bills have a bit of a conundrum. It is universally agreed that the best part of Tyrod Taylor’s passing arsenal by a longshot is, pardon the pun, his ability to take long shots. He throws one of the best deep balls in the game, which is a terrific skill to have if you have speedy wide receivers to sprint after them; unfortunately, the Bills traded Sammy Watkins in the offseason for (effectively) Jordan Matthews, who plays more of a slot, zone target type of game. The closest thing the Bills have to a deep threat is former Panther Kaelin Clay, who was inactive last week against the Jets; if Clay gets a jersey and is inserted into the game, watch out.
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While they may not have a deep threat, the Bills utilized their tight ends last week to the tune of eleven targets; whether that is a statistic that arose from scheme or a point of emphasis for the season will reveal itself on Sunday. The Panthers zone-blitzing scheme aim to confuse the quarterback and Tyrod Taylor has issues when he can’t immediately diagnose the coverage; a healthy dose of pressure will make life a lot of easier for the Panthers’ secondary.
Running back LeSean McCoy led the team in receptions against the Jets and trailed only Charles Clay in targets, statistics that reveal where the Bills are with their wide receiver group. Only a 47 yard catch-and-run by Jordan Matthews which featured both egregious overpursuit and poor tackling by Buster Skrine prevented each of the Bills’ wide receivers from finishing with exactly one catch for 22 yards or less. The Panthers’ secondary should be able to contain the Bills’ pass catchers if they close quickly to the ball and be sure to make tackles at the point of first contact.
