For most fans and general Panthers-watchers, the memory of the 2017 receiving corps will likely be the paltry performances against Tampa Bay, Atlanta and New Orleans in the final three games of the year; a receiving corps comprising of injured versions of Devin Funchess and Greg Olsen alongside the likes of Bersin, Clay and Shepard failed to create separation and generally stifled any potential the Panthers had for a deep playoff run. Coming off those last few games, it would be all too easy to jump straight to the conclusion that the Panthers are in desperate need of receiver help, but the truth might be that the situation is a lot less terrible than those painful performances indicate.
A Healthy Funchess
Speaking to people who were around the team after the New Orleans playoff loss, it becomes clear that Funchess’ injury was worse than many seem to realize: “I’ve never seen somebody look as injured as he did. He couldn’t even lift his arm to button his shirt after the game,” said our Managing Editor Josh Klein; this was an injury Funchess had been suffering from since the loss in New Orleans on December 3rd and while he managed to put up decent numbers during those last few weeks, including making a couple of crucial catches against Minnesota, there was a marked dropoff from his mid-season best. While this certainly wasn’t good for the Panthers playoff chances in 2017, it is important context when looking at how effective he could be in 2018.
In the three games between becoming the Panthers #1 receiver and getting hurt, Funchess managed 17 receptions on 25 targets for 286 yards and two touchdowns. Extrapolating those numbers over a whole season and you get something in the order of a 90-1,500-10 season with a catch percentage in the high sixties; these are numbers that, since data became available in 1992, have only been put up by Jerry Rice, Michael Irvin, Steve Smith, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Antonio Brown (via PFR).
That is very good company.
Of course, extrapolating a three-game sample over an entire season is strewn with issues, but this should give an idea of just how good Funchess was, and while he might not put up Hall of Fame numbers next season, if healthy, he looks to be a strong candidate to establish himself as a good #1 receiver. What is also encouraging is seeing how he was able to generate those numbers, using a combination of athleticism and technique that few receivers possess.
It should not be surprising that a player with Funchess’ frame is able to use his strength to create separation underneath; the following play is a textbook example of pressing into the frame of the defender and then using his strength to break away in order to create separation for the catch:
This is also useful on back-shoulder throws, where he is again able to use his frame and long arms to create clean receptions with a huge amount of natural separation:
While these plays are very promising, the Panthers do need to be careful not to fall into the trap they did with Kelvin Benjamin where they just threw the ball up and asked the receiver to make plays; while Funchess is good at this, these are still not always particularly high percentage throws and can kill drives if used at the wrong moment, such as the following short third down:
However, what Funchess is able to do that Benjamin never could is separate using agility and route-running savvy. On the following play, he makes a good sharp outside cut in order to create separation and come up with the simple catch:
He also shows a nice use of head and hip fakes, throwing the defender off the route and forcing them to hesitate or even misdirect in order to maximize the separation at the head of the route; on the following play, Funchess fakes the outside break similar to what he ran on the play above, but then breaks back inside with the defender completely out of the play for the long completion.
Plays like this are extremely impressive, especially for a player with the size and power of Funchess and seem to be indicative of his intelligence as a football player. A major part of the mental side of being a receiver is the understanding and feel for coverages; on this next play, Funchess initially breaks outside, but seeing the underneath zone, he then curls back into the open space for a nice reception.
Plays like this are valuable in that they allow for the same play to be used to attack multiple coverages and limit the amount of pressure put on the quarterback to identify coverages pre-snap; if these is symptomatic of a wider understanding of option routes by Funchess, then this could be a significant part of how he is used in that #1 receiver role.
The other advantage to Funchess is his ability to make plays even when he can’t separate. This should not be seen as a foundation of his game, as separation is always preferable, but does still have real value. A good example of how this useful is plays like the following two where Funchess is able to separate initially but a slightly late throw allows the defender to come back into the play; often, the defender is then able to knock the ball away for an incompletion, but Funchess is able to use his frame and long arm to come up with the catch regardless:
It also helps when the defense tries to jump the route in the event that they recognize the concept. The route Funchess runs on the following play isn’t bad, but as this is something the Panthers run a lot, the defensive back gambles on the slant and is able to make contact at the catch point; Funchess is still able to hold on and use his power to gain yards after the catch:
While Funchess isn’t a quick shift guy, his ability after the catch is still impressive and while this should not be seen as a foundational skill, it’s more of an added bonus. His combination of speed, agility and power allows him to break tackles, such as on the play above, as well as run away from defenders such as on the next two plays:
Given all this, there should be a reasonable expectation that Funchess will be able to emerge as a genuine #1 receiver in the 2018 season. Of course, a receiving corps requires a lot more than just one player, but luckily for the Panthers, they do have two exciting young receivers returning from injury for the 2018 season, and while their 2017 seasons were dominated by injury, they should definitely not be forgotten when trying to evaluate the Panthers’ needs at wide receiver.
Fast and Faster
Curtis Samuel’s rookie season was almost completely lost to injury, and while there are some lingering concerns about his health going into the 2018 offseason, there was a lot to like from the few games he did play. Unsurprisingly for a guy who ran a 4.31 40-yard dash at the combine, speed was a big part of his game. The play that ended his season is an excellent example of how dangerous he can be as a vertical threat as he is able to simply run past the defender before failing to make the reception:
This next play isn’t a straight vertical route, but he is again able to simply run away from his defender before having to slow down to avoid running out of field:
This speed is also useful in allowing him to create separation underneath; on both of the following plays, the defender has to allow a large cushion in order to cover deep and so when Samuel breaks to the outside he creates a lot of separation for relatively easy completions, such as the following:
He is also able to use this in more classic comeback routes, where he is able to use his speed to force the defender to break out of his backpedal before coming back to the ball; while he doesn’t get thrown the ball on the following play, he is able to create a reasonable amount of separation and a well-timed pass would likely have led to a completion.
While this speed is valuable, and something the Panthers should look to do a better job of making use of next season, what Samuel has also showed the ability to do is create separation underneath with solid route running. On the following play, he is able to force the defender to hesitate at the break point before he breaks outside for good separation which is unfortunately undone by a late throw.
On this next play as well, he makes an excellent cut back outside for what should have been a long completion if Alford hadn’t been able to get away with a fairly flagrant hold; both this and the play above will not show up in the stats sheet for Samuel, but with small improvements elsewhere and some better luck, could represent a good chunk of potential yardage.
What is really exciting about Samuel’s route running is the violence of some of his cuts and while this is something it would be nice to see on a more consistent basis, there are examples of it from his tape last year as well. The following play demonstrates both this violence but also his feel for zone, as he can be seen backing away from the defender slightly in order to create a little more room to make the catch on this next play:
Of course, there is still a reasonable amount for Samuel to work on as a route runner, but for a rookie who largely played running back in college, these flashes are encouraging and there should be a reasonable expectation of him being able to contribute in a more significant way next season. The other player that the Panthers will likely have coming back off an injury-filled season is Damiere Byrd, who spent the previous few seasons developing on the practice squad. The 25-year old looked to be taking on a more significant role with the Panthers before being hit with a pair of injuries that took him out for most of the season.
As with Samuel, a major foundation of Byrd’s game is his speed and he showed the ability in the games he did play to run away from defenders:
Also similar to Samuel was his ability to turn the threat of that deep speed into underneath separation, such as on this next play:
Where Byrd possibly separates himself from Samuel at this point is in his route running on underneath routes. On plays such as the following, he shows the ability to get into the frame of the defender and then uses a nice hesitation to freeze the defender’s feet before using his change of pace to separate:
The same is also true on his now-famous butt-catch, and while it is all too easy to focus on the circus finish, the cut he makes at the head of the route to get open is excellent and had Newton had him as an earlier read, the circus catch likely wouldn’t have been needed:
He also has added little nuances such as the following inside-out move, where he fakes the inside move and then breaks outside:
What this play also shows is the upside of players like Byrd and Samuel; their ability to turn short passes into long gains due to their ability to make defenders miss and pick up yards after the catch; this does sometimes come in the form of screens and plays of that ilk, but if the Panthers are going to commit to the short passing game, the ability to turn short passes into long gains will be hugely valuable, evidenced by the following plays:
After Kelvin Benjamin was traded, both Byrd and Samuel played approximately two and a half games apiece before going down with injuries but in those combined five games, they managed 17 receptions for 161 yards and 2 touchdowns between them. Over a season, those numbers would be good for a combined 109 receptions for 1030 yards and 13 touchdowns. These numbers are good rather than great, but it should also be noted that they did this at an extremely high catch percentage and are still very young. With more experience and more targets, these numbers could get even better, and are still comparable with the NFL average for combined #2 and #3 receiver numbers.
That is not to say that the Panthers don’t have a need at receiver, they do, but maybe that need is not as big as some might think; the Panthers have the foundations for an excellent receiving corps already in place, they just need the finishing touches. Ron Rivera may agree.
“It would be kind of cool to be able to find a guy with kind of the background that Jericho Cotchery had for us in 2015, a guy that had been there and had that kind of success because again, I think that helps the young guys,” said Rivera at the Combine. “It is a pretty young room, so it would be nice to have a guy that’s got that kind of experience.”
This doesn’t reveal the exact blueprint for what can be expected of the Panthers’ wide receiver ambitions in free agency, but it does speak to a larger point about finding somebody who fits the Panthers existing receivers, not just the best player available. Given the youth of the Panthers’ receiving corps, an experienced veteran would make sense. Additionally, what the Panthers lack is not speed or big play ability, but rather an outside possession receiver who can help to move the chains on a consistent basis. Who that could be is still somewhat unclear, but is worth bearing in mind as free agency looms.
