Ron Rivera and Norv Turner have made their intentions for the Panthers offense clear – it’s time we start listening.
Two weeks ago, Turner echoed Rivera’s remarks when saying it’s realistic for Christian McCaffrey to get 25-30 touches a game. Last Friday, we saw it for the first time as Turner calls the plays for the Panthers offense, albeit in the preseason; we didn’t see McCaffrey get a full complement of touches – only six for 40 yards in 14 snaps, but what we did see is how Turner intends to install him as the foundation of the offense — because that’s the plan.
Christian McCaffrey had 222 touches last season, so the coaches will look for a jump of at a minimum 150 touches, 9.4 additional touches per game – 25 of those touches came from return duty – that’s a job McCaffrey will likely relinquish as his focus shifts to being the workhorse for the offense.
The NFL record for touches in a season, 492, was set in 1984 by Tampa Bay’s James Wilder. He’s the only man to average 30 touches a game for a season in the history of the NFL. The highest number we’ve seen in recent years was in 2014, Demarco Murrary’s last season in Dallas, when he averaged 28 touches/game (449 total). In fact, only four other NFL players have ever topped 28 touches per game for a season: Edgerrin James (2000), Eddie George (2000), Larry Johnson (2006) and in his second year, LaDainian Tomlinson (2002) – with Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator.
To give some more context, here’s the league leaders in touches the last ten seasons:
DeMarco Murray – 2014 (449)
Chris Johnson – 2009 (408)
Le’Veon Bell – 2017 (406)
Arian Foster – 2010 (393)
Arian Foster – 2012 (391)
Maurice Jones-Drew (386)
Adrian Peterson – 2008 (385)
David Johnson – 2016 (373)
LeSean McCoy – 2013 (366)
Adrian Peterson – 2015 (357)
While the assertion that CMC gets 25-30 touches in a single game might be realistic, he may not end up with that average at the end of the season, but between 22 and 24 per game is on par with the foundational running backs of recent years.
Pop quiz, hot shot – which Panther holds both of the top two seasons in yards from scrimmage during the Cam Newton era?
If you think he wore #89 and had quite an attitude, you’re absolutely right as Smitty had 1,450 yards in 2011 and 1,201 yards in 2012.
Those marks will almost certainly be under assault if CMC and the offensive line can hold up their ends of the bargain. As for touches, Jonathan Stewart was over 200 touches in four of six seasons with Cam, but he topped out at just under 20 touches/game (2015). As a rookie, McCaffrey had the team’s fourth-highest touch season since 2011.
After filling in admirably for Cam’s security blanket last season, there’s no questioning McCaffrey’s ability to catch out of the backfield. With the return of Greg Olsen, McCaffrey should have more space to operate after catches and without a clear-cut top wide receiver eating receptions, both Olsen and McCaffrey figure to be at the top of the Cam’s targets list. Even if McCaffrey improves on his 80-catch rookie season, to be the feature back the coaches are saying they want him to be, he’ll need to tote the rock more than twice what he did a year ago when he carried the ball just seven times a game. That number will need to jump by at least ten carries per game in order to hit those magic touch numbers everyone keeps mentioning.
The ability to effectively absorb those carries is the biggest question mark in the coaches’ plans, particularly come the fourth quarter when they will want to rely on running the ball to run the clock; McCaffrey succeeded in this role at Stanford, but he’ll still need to prove it now playing on the highest level. The Panthers have an insurance policy in the form of CJ Anderson, but it would appear that their intent is to give McCaffrey a crack at being the franchise back.
When Christian McCaffrey was drafted, then-general manager Dave Gettleman said the eighth pick in the draft reminded him of Curtis Martin. Martin was never the biggest back, but was absolutely a feature back, posting three 400-touch seasons, tied with Tomlinson for second all-time behind the NFL record of four seasons held by Eric Dickerson and Emmitt Smith. This is not an attempt to vault CMC prematurely into this class of running back, but rather to emphasize the type of usage being discussed; we’ve not seen a single Panther get this many touches in a season since Stephen Davis in 2003; Davis’ largest workload actually came in 2001 – when he averaged 24 touches per game.
This jump in workload will be significant for McCaffrey, but the payoff for the rest of the offense will be greater. If it works, Cam Newton will have the most complete weapon he’s had in his quarterbacking career. The pass rush will have to be aware of CMC, slowing their rushes against a depleted offensive line, while Olsen and McCaffrey take turns creating space for one another. With the primary focuses of the offense in the middle of the field, the wide receivers should be able to find favorable matchups to win as well.
At least, that’s the plan.
