The Panthers are definitely going to the postseason following a lackluster win over Tampa Bay at home last week; however, in terms of the playoffs, seeding and future performance are still up for grabs. The Los Angeles Rams have announced that they are going to rest the majority of their starters, and facing an improving 49ers squad led by the second-coming of Joe Montana, the Rams may well be locked into the fourth seed.
With that in mind, a win against the Falcons on Sunday could land the Panthers as high as the second seed should everything go their way, but will most likely have them oscillating between the third and fifth, depending on what happens in Tampa Bay. What is certain, however, is that a win for the Panthers could count for a lot more than knocking a division rival out of the playoffs; how they play on Sunday will be a preview of how they’ll be able to withstand some of the high-octane offenses in the NFC as they attempt to make their way to a February game in Minneapolis.
Stopping The Rot
The idea that a strong defense is essential in winning a Super Bowl is hardly a new concept; that doesn’t make the thought any less true than it was decades ago when coaches began preaching it. While the Panthers defense started the year playing very well, their performances over the second half of the season have been something of a mixed bag. While the Panthers held the Buccaneers to under twenty points last week, to allow a team struggling with injuries that many trips inside the red zone is hardly an emphatic performance; the Falcons haven’t put up their gaudy numbers from a year ago, but they have been one of the better offenses in the NFL and should provide a tough challenge to get the Panthers’ defense back on track.
The major areas of concern for the Panthers over the past few weeks have been tackling on the second level and gap control up front. These are tendencies that teams will exploit in the playoffs and have already lost the Panthers at least two games during the regular season. Unless the Panthers can fix these issues, it will be hard to imagine them making a long playoff run.
In terms of gap discipline, this has been a consistent and indeed persistent issue throughout the season, especially against motion of pulling guards. On Barber’s long run on Sunday, the Bucs pull the fullback and the left guard outside the left tackle.
James Bradberry does reasonably well in sealing the edge but Mike Adams fails to adjust across to fill the gap outside of the fullback and, as a result, Barber is able to break off a long run. Truly, a veteran player like Adams shouldn’t be making such mistakes; the fact that he is making them this late in the season doesn’t bode well in terms of improvement and adjustment to scheme, but maybe with some focused coaching in this area in advance of the playoffs, the Panthers can have a stronger showing in this area on Sunday. Given how run-heavy many of the NFC playoff teams are, an exploitable run defense could all but end any chances of a long playoff run; the Panthers current ranking as only the 14th best run defense is likely not good enough.
In terms of tackling in the secondary, the issue is two-fold. First, and most obviously, when players have a chance to make a tackle in space, they must do a better job of bringing their man down. However, while that is quite easy to identify, basic technical skills such as tackling and catching rarely see significant improvements over the course of a week or so; given that many of the main culprits have been inconsistent rather than generally poor there is at least hope that some of Sunday’s lapses were in fact due to distraction. What is a more scheme-based issue is how easily the Panthers allow opponents to get the ball with the ability to run after the catch.
On the following two plays, Chris Godwin runs a simple post route with Worley offering him a huge cushion; on the first, Coleman is able to come up to make the tackle, but on the second, he is unable to do so and the touchdown is only prevented by Luke Kuechy’s (somehow) still under-appreciated athleticism.
On both plays, there is no reason for Worley to be so far off the line of scrimmage. Godwin is not especially quick and by allowing him this much space, the Panthers are going to find it hard to prevent such runs after the catch. Should they allow space like this to some of the better receivers in the NFL, such as they are likely to meet in the playoffs, they run the risk of being completely torched after the catch. While Julio Jones is the obvious star for the Falcons, the attention should also be on the other receivers, as many of the NFC playoff teams have good depth at receiver.
With Thomas Davis and Charles Johnson both returning for the Panthers, there should be an expectation of an growth over last week’s showing, but if the Panthers want to be seen as real contenders in the playoffs, they will need to show improvement compared to their inconsistent second half of the season.
Offensive Rebuild
Having lost Damiere Byrd to injury, the Panthers will need to look to rebuild their receiving corps for the third time this season. While the Falcons are a decent pass defense, they have struggled to stop the run all season and, should the Panthers be able to run the ball against them anywhere near as effectively as they did in their first meeting, there should be opportunities for the Panthers’ receivers to make plays on the outside as the game goes on.
The three main receivers expected to step up and contribute are Brenton Bersin, Kaelin Clay and Mose Frazier; while Frazier is an almost complete unknown at this point, there is enough tape from Bersin and Clay to have some idea about how they might look.
Brenton Bersin is somewhat of a known entity for Panthers fans, having been with the team on-and-off for longer than any other receiver on the roster. When Byrd went down on Sunday, Bersin was largely the one asked to take over his targets, with most of these coming on deep crosses such as those below.
This deep crossing or drag route is effective against zone coverage with Newton being asked to hit Bersin in the gaps between zones; when the Panthers went to the Superbowl in 2015, Philly Brown had a lot of success against zone defenses using this route. When it works well, it looks something like the third of the three above examples; on the second, the route works reasonably well only for Bersin to bobble the catch, leading to the interception. The first play is merely an example of Newton being exceptional, fitting the ball perfectly into a position where only Bersin can make a play on it against man coverage. However, the Panthers might struggle using this route in the playoffs unless they are able to establish a deep threat to prevent the safety being able to come down and make plays on the ball; that is where Kaelin Clay is expected to be a factor.
Clay’s performances have been very mixed so far this season. Highlighted by his punt return touchdown against the Jets, he also has had a costly fumble against the Saints as well as a number of drops; with that in mind, where he might be most effectively used is in the role that Ted Ginn had back in 2013. While over the past two seasons in Carolina, he was actually used as more of an all-around receiver, when the Panthers first acquired him he was mostly used on go routes, deep posts, seams, drags and screens. None of these routes require a high level of route running and provide a high reward when completed, which compensates for the higher drop rate. What these routes also do is help the offense even when the player isn’t targeted. By using Clay as a deep threat, the Panthers would be able to open up the underneath area allowing for the other receivers to be more effective.
With Trai Turner likely making his return as well, it should be expected that the Panthers’ offensive game plan will center around the rushing attack, with the focus being on toss and option plays to take advantage of a questionable run-defending Falcons secondary. However, looking beyond simply the Falcons game, if the Panthers are unable to include players not named Olsen, Funchess or McCaffrey in the passing game then that would certainly not bode well for continued success in the playoffs.
As much as this game is about winning, and it really is, much of what will be seen on Sunday should also be looked at in terms of its relevance to the postseason. While a strong Falcons offense is likely to put points on the board at home, if they are doing so through short field or defensive errors, that should be cause for concern. Look for Cam Newton to have a big day on the ground and for Bersin to get the ball over the middle against a zone-heavy Falcons defense.
