Keep The Pressure Coming
The Jaguars offensive line isn’t amazing from a pass protection point of view – but it isn’t awful either – so they should offer somewhat more resistance than either the Cardinals or the Texans, both of whom have struggled to protect the quarterback for a while now. Now, this doesn’t mean that the Panthers won’t be able to get to the quarterback on Sunday, but rather that doing so will require more effort, and will be just as crucial in terms of getting a win.
Gardner Minshew has been pretty good for a rookie quarterback – he is unlikely to win the MVP but he also isn’t throwing the ball to the nearest defender every time he drops back. However, like with almost all rookies, the speed of the game is something he is still getting used to, and while he comes from a Washington State offense that likes to get the ball out quickly, the Panthers will hope they will be able to do more to disguise coverages and pressures than the average Pac-12 team – this will then put the pressure on the front seven to convert that extra second or so into more consistent pressure and, if all goes well, rushed decision making.
Given that they Jaguars tend to play with more tight ends on the field than the teams the Panthers have faced in recent weeks, this should also give them a chance to show just how effective this multiple defense can be in generating pressure schematically. Of course, this schematic pressure will only serve to augment the pressure the Panthers are able to generate through the talent they have on the defensive front; if the Jaguars game does mark the first time that everybody is healthy – not something that appears likely – it will also serve as a nice indication of just how good this pass rush can be.
The final thing to watch for in this regard is how the Panthers continue to adapt to the loss of KK Short, as with him now on IR, they are going to be asking Vernon Butler and Efe Obada to take on larger roles than were likely expected to be the case as the start of the season. It isn’t fair to hold either of these players to the very high standard of fully replicating what Short is able to do, but given both players are in contract years, this is a great chance for one – or both – of them to establish themselves as a potential option to step into McCoy’s shoes when he also hits free agency next offseason.
The success or failure of the pass rush this week shouldn’t be whether they are able to maintain the frankly ridiculous sack totals from the past two games, but rather in the consistency with which they are able to force throws under duress and the degree to which they are able to speed up the clock in the quarterback’s head. For the Panthers to really contend this year, they are likely to need a strong effort from the defense, and that has to start with consistent pressure up front – as it did in the 2013 season where the Panthers were able to contend without a juggernaut offense.
Making The Most Of Good Opportunities
The Panthers managed a decent 50% on third down against the Texans, but for the season they are still at below 40% and in the bottom half of the NFL. The most worrisome part of this has been how they have struggled to convert more manageable third downs – the Panthers were just 4-7 on third-and-short (four yards or less to go), and one of those involved a spectacular contested catch by Jarius Wright. Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t some calamitous issue for the Panthers but, along with the fumbling issues, one of the reasons why the Panthers only managed 16 points on Sunday was their inability to make the most of good situations on third down.
Some of this is about situational awareness, as on a couple of third downs Kyle Allen threw an incompletion trying to throw the ball deep rather than taking a shorter completion with a high chance of picking up the first down. Again, he is a young quarterback who has been thrust into the starting role due to injury – and it’s important to have a sense of perspective when talking about these things – but he could stand to show a greater awareness of the situation and focus on picking up the first down rather than taking a chance on trying to hit the deep ball.
The other thing at play is being willing to run the ball on shorter third downs.
All seven of these short third downs were pass plays, and while the Panthers might well be forced into this somewhat by defenses looking to put the ball in Allen’s hands on key situations, unless teams are absolutely stacking the box on every short third down, they should be more willing to run the ball here occasionally – partly because it puts the ball in the hands of their best offensive player, and partly because if they don’t at least feign a rushing attempt, it makes things much easier for the defense.
The Panthers offense isn’t going to be throwing the ball around in the way it did against the Cardinals every week, and the Jaguars will certainly be a challenge defensively, but if the Panthers can continue to be effective on early downs in the way they were against the Texans and are able to convert a few more of those chances, they will stand a real chance of putting up enough points to give the defense a chance to win them the game.
That might sound like a negative tactic, but that is the format that saw this team go 12-4 in 2013 – and if there is a Ron Rivera team that this 2019 squad should be looking to replicate, the 2013 Panthers are a far more suitable choice than the all-conquering 2015 squad.
