The players on the Panthers defensive line, which had been so dominant against two young offensive lines with strong pieces in Buffalo and San Francisco, were licking their chops in the days leading up to their Week 3 matchup with the Saints. But while a Saints offensive line that was missing it’s two starting tackles played adequately, the Panthers beat themselves up with ‘self-inflicted wounds’ from missed tackles on the back end of the defense to poor gap discipline up front. When Luke Kuechly has issues with taking the right angle on the ball carrier, you know that the Panthers are going to need to play better in order to stop anyone. And it’s not just anyone that’s next on the schedule.
It’s Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and the defending Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots.
Here’s the good news: The Patriots offensive line has not played well in 2017. Tom Brady has been sacked ten times through three weeks; he was sacked 15 during the whole of last season. While none of the five starters have been playing well, much of the blame has been directed at left tackle Nate Solder; the veteran linemen has given up three sacks, five hits on Brady, and a forced fumble. He was responsible for the defensive touchdown for the Texans last week, and while the Texans defensive line is considered one of the best in the league, the Panthers’ have similarities across their front. They both have speed rushers on the outside, and while the Panthers don’t move Julius Peppers, Charles Johnson, and Mario Addison around as much as the Texans do with Whitney Mercilus, J.J. Watt, & Jadaveon Clowney, speed rushers like Mario Addison or Julius Peppers should be able to make some waves against Solder.
House call.#NoMerci #ClowneyComin pic.twitter.com/1XadY5SWK9
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) September 24, 2017
If Marcus Cannon is able to return from a concussion this week, he will be an upgrade over LaAdrian Waddle, who had trouble adjusting to the speed of Clowney and Watt on the outside. Cannon, to his credit, has given up two sacks and a hit in the two weeks he has played, so on either side of the line, the Panthers seem to have an advantage. Solder and Cannon were a solid duo keeping the pocket clean for Brady throughout their careers, so the first few weeks may have been aberration as opposed to the new reality; the defensive end group must play better than they did against the Saints and their two backup tackles than the four pressures and a sack they contributed in Week 2.
The interior lineman group of guards Joe Thuney and Shaq Mason along with center David Andrews aren’t playing much better, as they gave up two sacks and three hurries on the interior of the line last week against Houston. Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei should be able to get push, and Andrews especially is susceptible to quick moves off the line, so if Short (or Butler, who hasn’t showed a whole lot thus far in 2017) can get quick release off the line, they could disrupt Brady’s timing. Brady is one of the best in the league at changing his plays and protections at the line, so if the Panthers can get home only rushing four, it will make life much easier for the secondary.
Overall, if the Panthers can emulate the gameplan and execution the Texans’ put together last week, they can be successful against this Patriots offensive line. The combination of Mercilus, Watt, and Clowney combined for three sacks, seven tackles for a loss, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery for a touchdown and six hits on Brady; Texans defensive tackle Christian Covington is a similar player to Kawann Short and Covington was able to consistently disrupt the running game of the Patriots as well as force a fumble by Brady on a stunt in the third quarter.
When it comes to short-yardage, the Panthers should be able to stop the Patriots if trends continue; according to Football Outsiders, the Patriots are only converting 55% of runs on third or fourth down with two yards or less to go, that includes both goal-to-go and quarterback sneaks; the Panthers defense in the same situation has not allowed a first down conversion on the ground through three weeks. The Patriots are being stopped for no gain or behind the line on 21% of their carries, which ranks them in the bottom-third of the league; they have not been able to produce quality plays in short-yardage situations thus far.
The speed that Tom Brady has on the outside at wide receiver combined with his accuracy on deep balls means that not letting him be comfortable in the pocket is even more imperative than it was against Drew Brees last week. When Brees has four seconds throw, he is throwing for first downs.
When Brady has four seconds to throw, he is throwing touchdowns.
