Welcome to the Week 6 edition of Panthers Picks & Props, where our friend Cort Smith will run down his favorite Panthers-related bets and fantasy plays each week. Cort is a lead writer at RotoViz and the founder of Bet the Prop, a site specializing in the emergent player prop betting market. As of July 26, sports gambling is legal at sportsbooks in Cherokee, North Carolina – even though the sportsbook isn’t technically open up there, that’s not to mention the myriad of online options emerging – we’re not here to judge, we’re here to make you some money.
The Panthers and Buccaneers meet up in an early-morning island game as they wrap up their divisional series at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.
Carolina looks to win its fourth game in a row while avenging their 20-14 Week 2 loss to Tampa Bay on national TV.
Speaking of losses, we finally tasted defeat last week ourselves as variance caught up with us and we went 0-2 in this space. We look to improve on our overall 6-3 props record (66.7%) on the year by going right back to the Curtis Samuel well.
I’ll also bring you one other top prop and break down my favorite cash game DFS play for this one as well.
Curtis Samuel
Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-114 @ Pinnacle)
Note: If you don’t have access to Pinnacle, watch for a similar line at offshore and domestic bookmakers (DraftKings & FanDuel among them) throughout the weekend.
I know, I know.
I told you that the Curtis Samuel bust out was coming last week against the Jaguars – but I was just a week early. He did have a healthy six targets, to be fair, but the Jacksonville secondary proved to be too much.
Week 6 brings a mouth-watering matchup with one of the league’s most extreme examples of a pass-funnel defense, a Tampa unit seemingly going out its way to allow wide receivers to run wild.
The Buccaneers have allowed:
- The most passing yards per game (336.8)
- Second-most total completions (27.6/game)
- The most yards to WRs (214.8/game)
- The most receptions to WRs (15.8/game)
All this while allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game (56) on the second-best yards per carry against (3.04), practically forcing the opposition to take to the air.
Most wide receivers to face the Bucs have been gifted with season-best stat lines.
Even including that weird Week 1 game against the 49ers where Richie James’ 39 yards led the team, Tampa has surrendered an average of 10.6 targets, 8.2 receptions, and 114.8 yards to the opponent’s top receiver.
Samuel has been near enough to the top dog when facing Tampa Bay, commanding 11 and 13 targets over their last two meetings. If he sees anywhere near that kind of volume again, cracking 52.5 yards is well within his range of outcomes.
And given that he ranks eighth among all WRs in air yards but just 43rd in actual yards, a little bit of positive regression means a true explosion game is in the cards, too.
Jameis Winston
Under 274.5 Passing Yard (-115 @ Pinnacle)
Gardner Minshew was the rare QB to post big passing numbers against the previously stingy Panthers pass defense last week (366 yards on 44 attempts), but Winston is a more familiar rival with a more exploitable track record.
This one should be a much tighter affair, unlike last week when Minshew was in catch up mode all day.
Winston’s track record against Carolina isn’t great, facing them six times over the last three years and hitting the 275-yard mark just once.
| Date | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int |
| 2019-09-12 | 16 | 25 | 208 | 1 | 0 |
| 2018-12-02 | 20 | 30 | 249 | 2 | 0 |
| 2017-12-24 | 21 | 27 | 367 | 1 | 0 |
| 2017-01-01 | 20 | 35 | 202 | 1 | 1 |
| 2017-10-29 | 21 | 38 | 210 | 0 | 2 |
| 2016-10-10 | 18 | 30 | 219 | 1 | 0 |
Winston is averaging 242.5 yards over that stretch with a median result of 219 yards.
The book is out on the former first-overall pick — he’s notoriously struggled against all zone defenses, not just Carolina’s, and I’m betting that the mix of zone looks and a Panthers’ pass rush that might be the best in the league will make for another long day for Winston.
Had been Tweeting out the wrong link (sorry).
Teams producing sacks/QBH at the highest rate when rushing 4 or fewer:
1. Panthers
2. Patriots
3. 49ers
4. Bucs
5. SteelersLowest:
28. Raiders
29. Chiefs
30. Seahawks
31. Eagles
32. BillsMore here: https://t.co/rynWrYvCSW
— Sheil Kapadia (@SheilKapadia) October 5, 2019
The weakness in the Panthers defense lies in the run game. They’re allowing more than 100 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs – and I see the Bucs using that as a vehicle to keep the pressure off of their QB.
Top Fantasy Plays
Cash Games
Christian McCaffrey ($19,500 Captain Price on DraftKings)
Juke CMC
Note that because week’s Panthers game is kicking off early at 9:30 EST, it’s only available in DK’s Showdown: Captain Mode, the same as if it were a primetime game.
That means we can put McCaffrey in the Captain’s spot and get a 1.5x bonus on his fantasy points. And given that he’s by far the top-scoring player in PPR formats, with 23% more points than the next-closest player – that’s a spot we want to take advantage of when we can.
Yes, McCaffrey was stifled for 7.3 fantasy points when these teams met in Week 2, but he’s now scored 21 or more fantasy points in 12 of his last 14 non-Week 17 games, including cracking 30 points twice against the Bucs last year.
That Week 2 dud may even work to reduce his ownership in cash games this week, giving you even more leverage over the field if he goes off.
