Welcome to the Week 8 edition of Panthers Picks & Props, where our friend Cort Smith will run down his favorite Panthers-related bets and fantasy plays each week. Cort is a lead writer at RotoViz and the founder of Bet the Prop, a site specializing in the emergent player prop betting market. As of July 26, sports gambling is legal at sportsbooks in Cherokee, North Carolina – even though the sportsbook isn’t technically open up there, that’s not to mention the myriad of online options emerging – we’re not here to judge, we’re here to make you some money.
Fresh off the bye, the Panthers are rewarded with a trip west to face the undefeated 49ers, the only team that can challenge the Patriots for the claim of best defense in the league. Bookmakers seem confident that QB Kyle Allen can put in a competent showing against a secondary that has proven to be impregnable so far. I, on the other hand, am less confident.
We’ll get into that in our first prop selection of the week, followed by a look at a correlated receiving prop, before finishing off with a rundown at a couple of Panthers DFS plays for Week 8.
Let’s jump in.
Kyle Allen
Under 229.5 Passing Yards (-112 at DraftKings)
The Texas A&M product has snapped off five-straight wins in Cam Newton’s stead, completing 66% of his passes and averaging 225.6 passing yards per game. So on the surface, this over/under line of 229.5 makes some sense.
But this is likely to be the worst matchup Allen gets all year. Heck, it might be the toughest draw he ever sees, considering the 49ers are on pace to give up the fewest passing yards of any team since the strike-shortened season 1982.
QBs facing the 49ers are averaging 155.7 yards per game. That’s by far the lowest mark this year, and they’ve also allowed the fewest attempts and completions while racking up the sixth-most QB sacks with 20.
Andy Dalton is the only passer to eclipse 230 yards against this Richard-Sherman-led secondary, which has somehow held the last three QBs it’s faced to 100 or fewer yards.
Their offense plays a big part in that too, as the 49ers rank second in time of possession. As a result, teams facing them have managed just 57.5 offensive snaps per game, the lowest mark in the league. It’s a defense that is clearly due for some negative regression, but the 49ers are so good that they can take a step back and still keep Allen well under 230.
Jarius Wright
Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-115 @ DraftKings)
This play is has a clear correlation to the Allen under that we just laid out, but it’s also that Wright’s role in the Panthers offense is wildly inconsistent at best.
He’s tallied just one catch on those three targets in each of the past two weeks for a grand total of 12 receiving yards. Most notably, his snap count sank to a season-low 47% rate against the Buccaneers, a concerning figure versus a pass-funnel defense that is certainly friendly to WRs.
Wright is now under this line of 19.5 yards in four of six games, averaging 23 along the way. He gets no gifts in the matchup department this week. Running 80% of his routes out of the slot, Wright will face off against K’Waun Williams, who is PFF’s fifth-highest graded CB at 82.7, a few points better than even Stephon Gilmore (79.4), who is generally considered the best corner in the league.
This is a massive mismatch on paper and likely in real life too. Given Wright’s uneven play, there’s no reason for the Panthers to feed him more than a few targets.
Top DFS Plays
Cash Games
Christian McCaffrey ($9,200 on DraftKings)
Running and receiving TDs helped McCaffrey salvage a solid fantasy day in a game where the Buccaneers effectively bottled him up, holding him to 58 total yards on 26 touches.
That was a tough matchup, and this one might be even worse against a San Francisco defense allowing just 3.2 receptions and 23.1 receiving yards to opposing RBs — both the best marks in the league.
They’ve faced some good receiving backs, too, Joe Mixon and James Conner among them, but no one like McCaffrey, whose combination of opportunity and efficiency is unmatched. His recent “down” game, combined with the tough matchup, could put some people off of McCaffrey this week. That works just fine for us, as it gives us the rare chance to flex some ownership leverage over the field with fantasy football’s best player.
GPP Play
D.J. Moore ($4,900 at DraftKings)
I like Moore as a GPP play this week for a few reasons:
- The matchup is going to keeping his ownership low
- He is due for some serious positive regression in the TD department
Per RotoViz’s Michael Dubner, only nine WRs have had worse luck finding the end zone this year.
What this chart tells us is that based on his opportunity so far, Moore should have scored 2.8 TDs. The fact that he’s only scored one means that, if he maintains his rate of opportunity, these scoring numbers should eventually bounce back.
While the 49ers pass defense has been unbeatable so far, Moore at least gets the better matchup on the left side of the field. He’ll mostly avoid a resurgent Richard Sherman, who will instead be assigned to track Curtis Samuel.
Moore is too good and has been getting too much opportunity to continue the scoring drought for much longer.
