Welcome to the Week 4 edition Best Panthers Picks & Props, where our friend Cort Smith will run down his favorite Panthers-related bets and fantasy plays each week. Cort is a lead writer at RotoViz and the founder of Bet the Prop, a site specializing in the emergent player prop betting market. As of July 26, sports gambling is legal at sportsbooks in Cherokee, North Carolina – even though the sportsbook isn’t technically open up there, that’s not to mention the myriad of online options emerging – we’re not here to judge, we’re here to make you some money.
It was another good week for our Panthers Picks & Props. After an easy hit on our favorite bet of over 45.5 receiving yards for Greg Olsen (he ended up with 77 yards) last week, our player props record in this space moved to 4-1 (80%) on the year.
We also recommended inserting new starter Kyle Allen into your DFS lineups, and he paid off handsomely. His four passing TDs propelled him to the sixth-highest fantasy score among all QBs last week – not bad for a guy at minimum pricing.
On to Week 4 and a date with the 2-1 Texans in Houston. This week, we’ll focus in on one fantasy prop bet that I love involving Christian McCaffrey — that’s right, you can also bet on fantasy points now, not just yardage over/unders.
We’ll also tell you who to avoid among the Texans WRs in a tough matchup versus a fierce Panthers secondary this week, before finishing up with one of our favorite DFS Panthers plays of the week as well.
Let’s jump in.
Christian McCaffrey
Over 19.5 Fantasy Points (-113 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
This prop comes from the FanDuel sportsbook. The line has been set at 19.5 fantasy points, but keep in mind that FanDuel scoring is Half Point Per Reception, not Full PPR.
Whether it’s Half-PPR or Full, this line is too low. While the Texans aren’t the easiest test on the schedule, McCaffrey has proven himself matchup-proof at this point, dominating across all categories:
- 1st in total RB opportunities (rushes + targets)
- 2nd in rush attempts
- 2nd in rushing yards
- 3rd in RB targets
- 4th in receiving yards
- 8th in TDs
- 3rd in fantasy points per game
Most importantly in my mind is that McCaffrey ranks 1st in expected fantasy points. That means he’s been handed the most valuable workload of any RB and is perhaps even a little unlucky to be “just” the third-highest scoring RB for far.
How often does the third-year stud surpass 19.5 Half-PPR fantasy points?
Throw out a meaningless Week 17 game last year and he’s done it in 10 of his last 12 games, or 83.3% of the time. With a vig of -113 on this prop, we need to win just 53.1% of the time to break even over the long term. The gap between those two numbers means we’re getting a ton of value here.
The Texans present mediocre obstacle for opposing backs, ranking in the middle of the pack with 19.7 fantasy points per game allowed to RBs, slightly above the mark we have to beat.
Matchups for McCaffrey have become immaterial, however — his elite usage and game-breaking ability him a good bet to exceed 20 points on any given week.
Texans WR Will Fuller
Under 58.5 Receiving Yards (-113 @ Pinnacle)
Photo Credit: Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports
Note: A similar line for Fuller should also be available at a number of more widely accessible offshore books as the day progresses.
Fuller is going to explode for a big game at some point soon, but I fully expect the Panthers stout pass defense to shut him down Sunday. Carolina plays run-funnel, allowing the seventh-most rushing attempts per game, but just the second-fewest passing yards per game (166.3) behind only New England.
They’re particularly stingy on outside WRs like Fuller, who will be matched up against Donte Jackson after Ron Rivera was optimistic the second-year corner would be available in this one. Sporting 4.32 wheels, Jackson is one of the few corners in the league capable of keeping up with Fuller (also a 4.32 40-yard dash time).
The Panthers’ pass rush has been a strength as well, ranking in the top-10 percentile, while the Texans terrible offensive line ranks in the bottom 10 percentile at protecting the QB. Deshaun Watson is unlikely to have much time to dial up deep downfield shots for Fuller.
It also doesn’t help Fuller that he’s also now competing for targets with Kenny Stills, who has by far the best matchup in the slot versus Ross Cockrell.
Top Fantasy Plays
Cash Games
Greg Olsen ($4,200 on DraftKings)
Olsen remains awfully cheap for a guy who has more Air Yards than any TE not named Travis Kelce.
He also ranks in the top-10 in almost every statistically significant category we look at for fantasy scoring.
He’s second behind DJ Moore in share of team targets, garnering 22% of his QB’s pass attempts.
Olsen predictably smashed the hapless Cardinals for last week for 25.5 DK points last week, eclipsing the 20-point mark for the second-straight game.
This week’s matchup against the Texans (sixth-fewest DK points allowed) is tougher on paper, but they haven’t faced a featured pass-catcher at TE like Olsen yet. The veteran was peppered with seven targets in Kyle Allen’s first start of 2019, and as long as the volume stays high, Olsen should have no problem paying off at his bargain price on DK.
