Welcome to the Week 5 edition of Panthers Picks & Props, where our friend Cort Smith will run down his favorite Panthers-related bets and fantasy plays each week. Cort is a lead writer at RotoViz and the founder of Bet the Prop, a site specializing in the emergent player prop betting market. As of July 26, sports gambling is legal at sportsbooks in Cherokee, North Carolina – even though the sportsbook isn’t technically open up there, that’s not to mention the myriad of online options emerging – we’re not here to judge, we’re here to make you some money.
Jacksonville’s disgruntled stud CB Jalen Ramsey has been ruled for Sunday’s game against the Panthers, and his absence has a huge effect on the outlook of this game. Ramsay is so dominant that his absence trickles down through the entire defense — just ask Joe Flacco, who was the QB8 in fantasy scoring last week against a Ramsey-less secondary.
That improves the outlook for all Panthers pass catchers, most notably Curtis Samuel, whose underlying numbers hint at an imminent explosion.
We’re maintaining a white-hot pace in this space with another 2-0 prop betting card last week. Our Panthers picks are now 6-1 on the year for an 86% hit rate.
Let’s see if we can do it again this week, shall we?
Jarius Wright
Over 2.5 Receptions (+141 @ Pinnacle)
Note: If you don’t have access to Pinnacle, a similar line should be available at other domestic (DraftKings & FanDuel) and offshore sportsbooks as the weekend progresses.
I like targeting Wright’s reception prop in this one for a couple of reasons:
- Even with Ramsey out, Wright rates to have the easiest matchup in the slot
- We’re getting an outstanding price at +141, meaning we risk one betting unit to win 1.41 units
At that price, we only need to win this bet 41.5% of the time to break even in the long run.
Wright has played 82% of his snaps from the slot this season, an area where Bouye rarely travels. He’ll draw D.J. Hayden, who is no pushover, but is allowing a catch on 70% of the targets thrown his way this season while earning a mediocre 67.7 grade from PFF.
Wright’s usage has been a bit boom or bust this year regardless of who is under center for Carolina.
With that kind of inconsistent usage, betting the over on 2.5 receptions is certainly a risky proposition, but the plus price makes up for the extra variance we’re taking on here.
I think Wright is involved in this one and sees around 4 targets, enough to give us a solid chance at cashing this bet.
Gardner Minshew
Under 223.5 Passing Yards (-115 @ Pinnacle)
Photo Credit: Harry Aaron/Getty Images
Despite facing a killer lineup of QBs which includes three first-overall draft picks, the Panthers pass defense has shut down everyone this far this season, holding all of them to under 210 passing yards.
- Jameis Winston: 16-25, 210 yards
- Jared Goff: 23-39, 186 yards
- Kyler Murray: 30-43, 173 yards
- Deshaun Watson: 21-33, 160 yards
It’s a defense that is happy to give up some easy looks, ranking 15th in completions allowed, but almost nothing in the form of chunk yardage. Carolina ranks No. 1 in passing yards allowed, giving up 13.8% fewer passing yards than the next-closest team — all the more impressive considering who they’ve faced.
Minshew looks like the real deal, but he’s only surpassed this passing total of 223.5 yards once, in that opening week shootout with the Chiefs.
With the Panthers boasting perhaps the best pass defense in the league, it would make sense for the Jaguars to continue lean heavily on Leonard Fournette, who is coming off a career-high 225 rushing yards on 29 attempts.
Carolina surrenders the ninth-most rushing yards against (130.8 per game). They’ve allowed 4.79 yards per carry to opposing backs, third-worst, making it the obvious weak link to target for the Jaguars coaching staff.
That could mean another relatively quiet day for the rookie QB.
Top Fantasy Plays
Cash Games
Christian McCaffrey ($8,700 on DraftKings)
Spin CMC
No earth-shattering insight here — Christian McCaffrey is the best fantasy running back in the NFL and likely the best one in real life too.
The Jaguars are similar to the Panthers in that they allow very little through the air but are more vulnerable on the ground. As we’ve discussed previously in this space, McCaffrey’s elite usage makes him matchup-proof anyway.
He tops the list of nearly every RB statistical category and excluding a meaningless Week 17 game last year, has now topped 20 fantasy points in 11 of his last 13 games.
That safe floor makes him a must play in at least some of your DFS cash lineups, despite his hefty price tag.
Tournaments (GPPs)
Curtis Samuel ($4,500)
Curtco
Samuel is dirt cheap on DK and the tough matchup means that he’ll likely be low-owned in tournament formats.
But here’s the thing: With Ramsey out, Samuel is likely to run routes against CB Tre Herndon, an undrafted CB who is fresh off giving up six catches for 119 yards and two TDs versus the Broncos last week.
Kyle Allen has targeted Samuel 14 times, more than any other wide receiver. Most tellingly, Samuel’s underlying numbers suggest a breakout is imminent. His 464 Air Yards are the eighth-most in the league and more than DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham.
Receivers who rack up a bunch of Air Yards but have relatively low yardage totals are always a good bet to break out.
Likely to be low-owned and coming with a cheap price tag in DFS, putting Samuel in your lineup gives you plenty of potential leverage in big fields.
