There are dozens of small decisions that a coach makes on a week-to-week basis that are going to affect the outcome of a game. Sometimes, the magnitude of the moment is clear like a fourth-down conversion instead of a punt or a particular play call at a particular time. One of those moments occurred in New Orleans on Sunday; with the Panthers down seven points and 46 seconds left in the first half, Ron Rivera decided to run the ball twice and let the clock run out, content to go into halftime down by seven with the second-half kickoff coming his way.
In hindsight, this strategy clearly failed the Panthers, as they needed more points to keep up with New Orleans and ultimately lost 31-21; did Ron Rivera give up on his team or was he simply being the same analytical, conservative coach that we’ve seen for years? Hosts of the It Is What It Is podcast Zack Luttrell and Josh Klein have differing opinions on the decision.
Zack: Saints coach Sean Payton knew the importance of winning this game; that was obvious when he made the decision to go for a touchdown on fourth down on the Saints’ opening drive. then again later when he called a timeout with 66 seconds left in the second quarter even though his team was facing a 3rd and 17. In a game that was essentially for the NFC South title and possibly a first round playoff bye, you have to take the opportunities to put points on the board when they’re presented to you.
Especially for the Panthers who were trailing by seven at the time of the decision. They needed to try and score at the end of the half if not for any other reason than to give their franchise QB the opportunity to make a play and show him that the team has confidence in him and the offense; I think it goes without saying that Cam Newton wanted to go for it – he believed he could get his team into scoring position.
Cam is also a player who builds off of successful plays and gets better with confidence. By not allowing him to take a shot, Coach Rivera basically showed Cam that he didn’t trust him to get the team into scoring position. Points at the end of the half coupled with a strong scoring drive to open the third quarter would have been the momentum swing the Panthers needed to give themselves a chance to win at the end of the game.
Josh: If momentum is what you’re after, then trying for points and failing at the end of the half is exactly what you would not want to do, which is why Ron Rivera made the right decision. The reason Payton called timeout on that third down was twofold, not only because he thought his team could pick up the third-and-17, but in the event that the Panthers decided to go for it and failed (or had an ill-timed turnover), Payton wanted as much time as possible on the clock for Drew Brees to make a quick strike for points.
A turnover for the Panthers, via Cam Newton interception (by the way, the Saints are Top 10 in the NFL in defensive interception percentage and the Panthers are Top 10 in offensive interception percentage) or going three-and-out for points would have essentially ended the game for the Panthers heading into halftime down two scores; heading into halftime the Panthers had momentum, ending the half didn’t take it away, but a turnover that gave the Saints a quick strike would have given it all to New Orleans.
And speaking of quick strikes for points, what did you see out of the Carolina offense that made you think that they were capable of going 50+ yards in forty-five seconds? They had gone three-and-out on four of their six first half possessions, and while they had scored the last time they had the ball, that was on a broken coverage where Christian McCaffrey was completely alone on the left side of the field. After their first touchdown drive of 75 yards, the Panthers had 68 total on their next five drives. They were going to double that again in 45 seconds?
Zack: Well, at least give them a chance! I understand, as a historically conservative coach, Ron Rivera fears making any mistakes that will allow the opposing team to gain any sort of momentum, but Coach Rivera became “Riverboat Ron” by making well-timed, calculated aggressive decisions that his team needed to put them in a better position to win.
Josh: As many memes as you want to throw out, Rivera has always been extremely conservative. He’s had the ball with less than a minute left in the first half inside his own twenty-yard line 21 times since 2011, do you know how many times he’s thrown a pass in that situation?
Four.
Table: Pro-Football-Reference.com
Zack: Is that supposed to make me feel better or worse? After watching the Saints’ offense basically have their way with the Panthers’ D, it should have been enough information for Rivera to know he needed this to be one of those aggressive moments. The Saints were out of time outs – the Panthers could have easily thrown incomplete passes on first and second down attempting to get into field goal position, and if they were unsuccessful they could have taken a knee on third and run out the clock. If Rivera was truly worried about not making any sort of costly mistake, then running the ball (instead of taking a knee) seems counterintuitive.
For that matter, why not make the Saints punt the ball again after an illegal shift penalty? If you know you’re not going to go for points, why not give your punt returner (who had just scored for you last week) another shot?
Josh: See, now those points I’ll agree with; why run Christian McCaffrey into the line twice instead of taking a knee if you’re fine with going into halftime down seven? I’m fine with the decision to end the half, but running the ball twice is a weird half-measure that doesn’t make any sense; just take a knee twice and head to the locker room.
Zack: I feel like I’m convincing you that going for points was the right decision.
Josh: You’re looking at it from the wrong angle. Whether it was the right decision is not what I’m arguing; what I’m saying is that Ron Rivera has not been the kind of coach that would go for it in this type of situation, so expecting him to do something that goes against his coaching history and tendencies is always going to lead to disappointment. I wasn’t surprised by his decision because that’s the kind of conservative decision you’d expect from him.
For all of the “Riverboating” that we talk about, the Panthers have faced fourth-and-5 or less on 132 occasions since the beginning of 2015 and have sent their special teams out on 103 of those drives. For those counting at home, Rivera’s gone for it 21.2% of the time; the rest of the NFL goes for it 21% of the time.
Zack: Well, maybe I’m not satisfied with that. When Payton made his declaration that the Saints could get points on fourth down, the play of the New Orleans Saints for the rest of the game was a reflection of their coach – confident, aggressive, determined. You can’t tell me that the Panthers’ timidness, uncertainty, and poor execution was not also a reflection of theirs.
Who do you agree with?
That guy Zack sure knows what he’s talking about.