While the Panthers will be looking to lean on their ground game as their quarterback shakes off the rust from offseason shoulder surgery and only one preseason drive, the performance of the pass catchers will be important in San Francisco, just as it is every game. The run game works best when the defense can’t key in on it, and being able to take the top off the defense and edge the safeties out of the box will go a long way towards opening holes for the Panthers running backs. If the Panthers pass catchers can outplay the 49ers secondary on however many pass attempts Mike Shula and the Panthers coaching staff choose to utilize, the offense will be successful. New defensive coordinator Robert Saleh will try to improve a pass defense that finished in the top fifteen in passing yards allowed in 2016 (4,013), but that figure may be misleading, as the run defense was so porous last season that opponents often didn’t pass as much. The defense ranked 28th in net yards per passing attempt, a much more telling statistic.
Before we dive into some specific matchups, let’s take a look at the overall strategy of the 49ers secondary. I had a chance to ask Dezmen Southward, a safety on the Panthers practice squad, what he was seeing on tape as he tried to emulate their defense in practice sessions leading up to Sunday:
“I think they run a bunch of single-high, they’re a fast, physical, athletic group; they run a whole lot of Cover 3, I think they’re gelling well together, they look pretty nice on film. But I think that we match up well against them.”
-Safety Dezmen Southward on the San Francisco 49ers Secondary
While running some variant of Cover 3 is a popular defense (not surprisingly, Atlanta ran it last year in addition to Seattle and Jacksonville), many teams opted to work more man-to-man coverage in as they played further into 2016. This may not be the case with the 49ers, as their cornerbacks are young and may not be trusted one-on-one against top-tier receivers; this may sound familiar because the Panthers ran a lot of zone coverage last year to mitigate their top two cornerbacks’ inexperience. The Cover 3 protects well against the deep ball, as that area of the field is split into thirds instead of in half, as in Cover 2.
In a single-high alignment, a safety plays closer to the box to help with run defense; in this case, the talented Eric Reid will be playing the “Kam Chancellor” role. Expect Reid to be in on a lot of tackles and to impact the game from a physicality standpoint. He will be patrolling the middle on certain plays looking to make a big hit on a crossing route or trying to limit short passes along the sidelines. Matchups between Reid and tight end Greg Olsen and running back Christian McCaffrey will be interesting to watch.
Olsen down the middle against the Texans
The 49ers starting cornerback group of Rashard Robinson, Dontae Johnson, and K’Waun Williams (nickel) is a young one, but much like the Panthers defensive backfield, they show a lot of promise. As the team transitions into a press-heavy, “Seattle-style” Cover 3, Robinson and Johnson should be able to use their physicality and improve. Robinson, drafted in the fourth round last year, only allowed a 50% completion rate in coverage during his rookie campaign, and he has the raw tools to become an elite corner in this league. His outside counterpart Dontae Johnson won the starting job during training camp, and has been an overall disappointment since he was drafted in 2014. Johnson struggles in man-to-man coverages, especially against quicker wide recievers (paging Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel) and quality route runners. If a Carolina receiver is matched up with Johnson and presnap motion reveals man-to-man, don’t be surprised to see Cam Newton audible to find the correct route to take advantage of the situation.
K’Waun Williams will be on the field a lot as the nickel back, and the diminutive (5″9′, 183 lbs) corner will find himself overmatched if he gets slotted against a bigger wide receiver like Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess, or Greg Olsen. Look for the 49ers to invest a linebacker (perhaps first round pick Reuben Foster) to help on inside sit-down routes, but, as with Johnson on the outside, if it’s man-to-man coverage, these should be matchups the Panthers wide receivers can be successful against.
The way to beat Cover 3 is with short outside throws and throws up the seam, so look for Cam Newton to take advantage of both his new weapon (Christian McCaffrey in the flats) and his old (Greg Olsen up the seam) throughout the day. The most exciting thing for Panthers fans is that the openings on Cover 3 will be near the line of scrimmage, where McCaffrey should be able to catch the ball in space, and do what he does. See below for an example of a play that can beat the Cover 3, courtesy of Ted Bartlett at IAOFM.
Diagram: Ted Bartlett/IAOFM
“Here, the Double Post side on the offense’s left isn’t really in play, unless the free safety dives hard to the three-receiver side on the right. What this concept is doing is forcing the strong safety [Eric Reid for the 49ers] to make a decision where he’s always going to be wrong.
The tight end releases outside and runs a 12-yard out route, running away from the SS at the very top of his zone. The Z wideout runs a deep skinny post to occupy the left cornerback, and make him turn and run. The running back chips on his way out, and runs to the flat.
The weakness of Cover 3 is in the flats, because the shallow outside defenders (NB and SS) are reading for the curl first, and then working outside to the flat secondarily. If you run two receivers to the same short outside zone at 10 yards’ difference in depths, it’s uncoverable.
The best outcome is if the SS gives up completions in the flat a few times, starts to guess on the pattern, and then tries to split the difference. Then, the tight end can really start dominating.”
In short, the base defense the 49ers run allows for short throws in the flats with space for the running back to make his move, until eventually, the defense adjusts, allowing for room for the tight end. Sounds like that is a good matchup for the Panthers when the 49ers are in their base defense.
Check out some other Week 1 positional previews of the battles in the trenches, as well as the Roaring Riot’s plans in San Francisco, below.
