The history of NFL cornerbacks taken in the late first is not very good, but this is not exactly a new concept. What might be something of a surprise, however, is just how bad this history truly is. Since 1970, just three cornerbacks taken in the second half of the first round have gone on to average a career approximate value/season of seven or more. This is a level that 334 players in the NFL reached last season, and is certainly not an unreasonable standard for a first-round pick and I’ll repeat it for emphasis – just three corners taken in the second half of the first round since 1970 have managed to reach this level. These three players are Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib and Louis Wright, with Peters and Talib both only falling that far due to off-the-field concerns – this is not an encouraging statistic for those keen on the Panthers drafting a cornerback in the first round.
However, those people certainly appear to be in the Panthers’ front office and so the first round cornerback market cannot be disregarded simply on this basis. While predictions on where certain players will fall varies greatly, this piece will focus on Josh Jackson from Iowa, Jaire Alexander from Louisville and Mike Hughes from UCF, the three cornerbacks most likely to be high on the Panthers’ board come the 24th overall pick; I’ve also included Quenton Meeks, who I believe is an excellent corner who appears to be available in the middle rounds and could be an answer for the Panthers if they don’t pull the trigger in the first round.
Josh Jackson
Jackson’s upside is fairly obvious on tape; he has a remarkable nose for the ball – not only does this allow him to generate turnovers but allows him to deflect passes that most other corners would allow completions on. However, as enticing as that is, at the NFL level the opportunities for such plays are more limited, and Jackson will need to show the ability to be effective in coverage without relying on turnovers to be effective. On tape, he shows decent movement skills and good awareness in zone, but his running style is quite jerky and he could struggle against some of the better route runners in the NFL. Additionally, while he isn’t slow, he doesn’t have the elite deep speed (4.56 40-yard dash) that will allow him to cover all receivers on downfield routes. He will probably be best suited to a zone-heavy scheme at the NFL level and teams will likely want to work him out to ensure that his Combine stutters don’t speak to a larger learning problem which could limit his NFL development.
Jaire Alexander
Alexander is another fairly well-rounded corner, and has the ball skills, deep speed and lateral agility to at least offer a significant potential ceiling. However, as with Jackson he has an unusually jerky running style which could see him struggling for lateral agility against NFL receivers; Alexander missed much of 2017 and the games he did play were largely against teams without any significant receiving prospects – this doesn’t mean that Alexander can’t perform to an NFL level, but rather that he wasn’t ever pushed to his athletic limit on a snap-to-snap basis in his most recent college season and so it is hard to say with confidence that he will be able to take the step to the NFL level. Also, while he was a willing press corner, he did sometimes have to commit heavily to the punch as it appeared he might lack the upper body strength to affect larger receivers at the line of scrimmage. Alexander isn’t a bad prospect, but it’s hard to say for sure just how good he might be.
Mike Hughes
Hughes’s core skill set of deep speed and ball skills is valuable and his ceiling is very high, but he also has probably the lowest floor of the four corners being considered here. His tackling has been quite inconsistent and while he showed decent lateral agility when faced with standard college receivers, this could well be a limiting factor for him at the NFL level. He does show ability from press coverage and certainly has the physicality to be an effective nickel corner, a possible move given his height, but his success at the NFL level will almost certainly depend on his ability to be more effective out of his backpedal, historically not a very teachable skill.
These are, of course, not the only cornerback prospects in the 2018 draft class who could be in the mix to be taken by the Panthers, but it should be clear even from this sample size that the Panthers options, should they go this way, are varied. There will always be a balance with risk and reward with every pick, but as described earlier the risk with cornerbacks is historically high; should the Panthers draft a corner with the 24th pick, they should do so with caution and as detailed an evaluation as possible. Or, they could address another need with the 24th pick and wait until the middle rounds and select someone like…..
Quenton Meeks
Meeks is not the athlete that the three above might be, but what has does have in his bag is that he has played in a far more NFL-like scheme and has shown he can be effective in both man and zone coverage as an outside corner. At 6’2, 205 pounds, he has the size to match up against bigger targets and while he doesn’t have burner deep speed he is fast enough to cover most receivers. He also shows good ball skills, is a willing tackler and a coverage versatility that will appeal to NFL teams. Meeks might not have the ceiling of some of the corners in this draft, but his floor is likely one of the highest in the class. Teams that look to play a lot of man coverage will probably not be ideal fits.
