Each week this offseason, we’ll be focusing on one position and how the Panthers may choose to address their needs; whether they’re in the market for an upgrade at starter or just a reliable backup, every player on the 53-man roster is going to be important in 2018.
This is Tight End Week.
Should the Panthers decide not to take a tight end at the top of the draft, another option would be to draft somebody on the second day who they can develop as a potential replacement for Greg Olsen while also being able to contribute as a role player in the short term. If Mark Andrews is the only tight end off the board when the Panthers look to add this developmental tight end, the decision should be an easy one because when it comes to developmental prospects, there aren’t many more exciting than South Dakota State’s Dallas Goedert.
Blocking
Coming out of a smaller school such as SDSU, it is hardly surprising that Goedert isn’t a fully polished NFL prospect, but what he demonstrates in spades is undeveloped talent. As a run blocker, this is best exemplified in terms of power, with Goedert frequently showing an ability to drive his man backwards.
This raw power Goedert demonstrates here is very promising, and on many plays he also shows a reasonable level of technique; on the following play, he appears to set a decent base and get reasonable hand placement.
However, at times, that desire to overwhelm defenders leads to him getting himself off-balance and allowing his defender to break free on occasion. On the following play, Goedert drives his man well out of the play, but nearly allows him to come back into it in his attempt to drive him off the field all together.
This sometimes rudimentary technique shows itself most when he is asked to block in-line, as while he again demonstrates his natural power as a blocker, he has a tendency to get slightly high and to narrow his base.
These appear to be technique issues rather than physical limitations. Obviously, as with any developmental prospect, the Panthers would be wise to work Goedert out in order to gauge how teachable they think he is and where his athletic limits might lie. What is certainly true is that as with almost all college tight ends, Goedert was almost never used in pass protection and when he was, it was usually on play-action fakes.
On both of these plays, Goedert shows that same narrow base but also an over-aggressive nature more suited to run blocking. If he is to develop as a pass protector, he will need to be a lot more patient with his hand usage and set a better base in able to maintain stability. From these plays, it would seem fair to say that Goedert is a poor pass protector at present, but given these were some of the only snaps he was asked to protect in this way, it is also fair to say that he may well improve significantly with coaching.
Even as things stand, Goedert is probably one of the better run blockers in the 2018 class and with some technique work, could be a genuinely excellent blocker in the NFL given both what he has shown already and his athletic abilities.
Core Receiving Skills
As with his blocking game, Goedert’s receiving game is as much about what he can become as what he already is. At 6’4″ and 260 lbs, Goedert is unlikely to be running past cornerbacks at the NFL level, but he did show an ability to separate vertically in college and will likely be able to run away from most linebackers in the NFL.
If Goedert is able to force matchups against safeties and possibly corners, he will be able to use his size to his advantage, but this ability to get vertical against slower defenders or zone coverage is an important skill for NFL tight ends. The other key athletic trait that Goedert demonstrated in college is his excellent ability to catch the ball.
As with all players, there were the occasional concentration drops, but they were truly occasional; Goedert showed generally reliable hands with the ability to make plays on poorly-thrown passes away from his frame. On both of the following plays, Goedert is able to extend well away from his frame to come up with the ball:
This skill is especially valuable in the red zone, where Goedert is able to use his length and good hands to be a matchup nightmare in the way that Rob Gronkowski and Tyler Eifert have shown to be highly effective at the NFL level. What Goedert also showed was the ability to adjust to balls thrown behind him, such as on the following play:
Goedert also showed flashes of the spectacular: the ability to come down with one-handed catches, even while in traffic:
Plays like these are not going to be the staple of a player’s game at the NFL level, but Goedert’s combination of size, speed and excellent hands gives him an enormous amount of upside at the NFL level; however, as with many college tight ends, what will likely determine his NFL ceiling is his ability to be effective as a route runner.
Route Running
While Goedert ran a reasonably varied route tree in college, it was still far from what he will be asked to do at the NFL level. Like almost every tight end in the draft class he will need to develop in this area, but there are some nice things on tape that should at least provide some idea of how Goedert might develop as a route runner. Unlike Mark Andrews, Goedert’s receiving game is not based on nuanced route running, but rather physicality through his route with a decent ability to change direction as his routes develop.
The following plays are a staple for Goedert: he simply runs to the head of the route and then breaks sideways, using his frame to shield the defender from the ball and his quickness to create enough separation to make the catch:
This style of route can possibly be seen best from the back angle, as it is clearer how Goedert is able to use his frame to shield the defender and make the catch:
While Goedert is unlikely to ever be able to get wide open against man coverage using this tactic, the ability to effectively bully defenders throughout a route has been shown to be successful at the NFL level. The next play is an example of how Goedert is able to use his physicality to generate separation, even if the ball isn’t thrown his way:
That is not to say that Goedert isn’t capable of some shift route moves as well. On the following red zone play, he is able to freeze the defender at the route head before breaking outside on the fade.
It is clear that Goedert will need to develop as a route runner in the coming years, both in terms of broadening his route tree and adding some subtleties to his route running, but his shear physicality makes it hard for smaller defenders to prevent him from making catches while his speed will be a matchup issue for larger NFL linebackers and safeties. The uncertainty in Goedert’s ability to separate at the NFL level is likely the biggest barrier to him being taken earlier in the draft, but for a team looking for a developmental piece on the second day, there is enough from Goedert on tape to view him as a risk worth taking.
A Little Extra Something
As mentioned in an earlier piece on Mark Andrews, the ability to make plays after the catch should be seen more as a bonus than as a core skill, but it is certainly true that Goedert is able to add yardage after the catch on a consistent basis. Whereas Andrew’s ball carrying ability is largely based on agility, Goedert’s is very much based on power.
Goedert does show a decent change on direction on this play, but his ability to bulldoze through tacklers to add extra yardage is a more regular part of his game. Additionally, he also shows a reasonable level of vision as a ball carrier, as while he is in a lot of space in both of the following plays, he does show a nice ability to navigate blockers in order to maximize the yardage he is able to gain:
What will really appeal to teams though, is that ability to break tackles and muscle himself forwards.
It is clear that Goedert has a high ceiling, but whether the Panthers view him as an early or late second-day prospect will largely be decided by how easy they think it will be to bring that potential out. That is not something that can be judged from tape, but if the Panthers don’t have a pre-draft workout/meeting with Goedert, it would be surprising to see the Panthers ultimately draft him.
NFL Best Case Scenario: Rob Gronkowski
NFL Worst Case Scenario: Nick Boyle
Summary: “A dominant physical presence who could be a match-up nightmare, especially in the redzone. However, will need to develop as a route runner and blocker if he is to maximise his potential”
Grade: B
