Party Like It’s 2016
While the 2016 version of Derrius Guice isn’t a world apart form the player he looked to be last season, he did seem to lose a little quickness and deep speed in 2017; that added burst had an effect on his overall game as well. That burst allowed him to be even more effective at continuing to add yards through contact, such as on this play:
He also seemed more capable at breaking tackles rather than just bouncing off them:
What is possibly most important is that he showed the ability to turn those moderate gains into long scores, such as on the following plays:
This doesn’t represent some quantum leap in his ability as a running back, but rather a slight value increase which could well be the difference between being a second-round pick and a top 40 pick. Guice could well return to his 2016 form with some time to heal up, but as with a lot of draft projections, it’s almost impossible to say that for certain.
The Added Extras
As well as being effective as a runner, running backs in the current NFL need to be able to influence the passing game as well, either as a pass catcher or as a pass blocker – preferably both. Guice is actually one of the better pas- protecting running backs in the class, but as with almost all college running backs, this is still an area he will need significant work on once he gets to the NFL. He does set a nice base, and even uses his hands well:
Guice can sometimes struggle for awareness of both other blockers and his responsibilities as a blocker. This will require him to spend some time working on his pass sets, but he is in about as good a position as running back entering the 2018 draft in this regard.
Guice caught just 32 passes in his entire college career, but he does seem to at least be able to catch on tape:
LSU even used him as a receiver on rare occasions, usually on this simple out pattern:
However, his route running could hardly be described as advanced, and his change in direction isn’t hugely impressive; while he isn’t terrible in this regard, he is not the next Christian McCaffrey, as defenders showed an ability to mirror his routes with ease, allowing for contested catches and even interceptions:
Guice is unlikely to ever be a dominant receiving option coming out of the backfield, but he shows at least enough ability to have the ball dumped off to him at times, and offers enough as a blocker to be useful in red zone situations and long third downs.
Guice is quite hard to tie down in that he doesn’t have one dominant trait, but rather a nice combination of skills which allow him to be effective on a consistent basis. It is hard to imagine him ever being a dominant running back at the NFL level, but he should be a immediate impact player for almost any franchise.
Best Case NFL Comparison: Kareem Hunt
Worst Case NFL Comparison: Zac Stacy
One Sentence To Tell Your Friends On Draft Night: “Guice runs like a bull in a china shop, and when he has a couple of steps to get up some speed he can be a very effective inside runner.”
Grade: B
