We’ve been talking all week about the directions the Panthers could go at the free safety position – it’s one of the few positions on the roster where the cabinet is actually bare at the moment; would they look to an inexpensive free agent option like Tre Boston? An early draft pick like Chauncey Gardner-Johnson? A day two pick like Darnell Savage? Or would they choose from the multitude of other safeties in the middle rounds – check out my big board for some additional options in that regard. You can also check out this week’s episode of our podcast, which talks where the Panthers are at safety and why it’s so important that they improve.
While the Panthers would undoubtedly like to address the free safety position before the final day of the draft, this is not something that can be guaranteed. If they do find themselves entering the fourth round and beyond without a free safety, however, there are some prospects who are likely to still be available at that point who might make sense for the Panthers, even if they aren’t the elite prospects the Panthers would get in an ideal scenario. One such player is Boston College’s Lukas Denis, so why would he make sense for the Panthers and why is he likely to still be on the board at the beginning of day three?
Athleticism and Coverage
The major reason why Denis is likely to still be on the board in the middle rounds is that he just isn’t the elite athlete that teams ideally look for in their free safeties. He ran a 4.64 at the combine, and while he showed the ability to run with slower receivers on tape:
He just doesn’t have the closing speed to make every play, and there are going to be instances in the NFL where he just can’t get there quickly enough:
This also shows up in terms of quickness, as while he has the ability to break down to the ball well at times:
Quicker NFL players are likely going to be able to run away from him at the head of routes:
Denis isn’t a terrible athlete – but he isn’t a great one, either. There are going to be plays in the NFL where he just can’t get there fast enough and he likely won’t be able to be used to cover faster or quicker receivers; they will be able to just run away from him. So what does he do in coverage to make up for his mediocre athleticism?
Well for a start, he actually has some of the best footwork of any of the safeties in the draft, and is one of the few who have a real chance of being able to spend some time in the slot in man coverage. He moves his feet well at the line, thereby limiting early separation:
He transitions nicely into his backpedal:
And comes out of his backpedal well:
While I strongly suggest that whoever ends up with Denis doesn’t do this at the NFL level, it was very telling that for much of their game with NC State, Boston College put Denis on NC State’s #1 WR and presumed top-50 pick Kevin Harmon on the outside. With that said, he can struggle against bigger receivers who are able to use their size at the head of the route:
Denis certainly isn’t an elite man coverage player, but he has solid footwork and decent quickness and agility, which in combination should allow him to play in the slot at times against slower receivers and smaller tight ends. The other thing that allows him to make up for his lack of speed is his awareness in zone, something that is especially impactful as a deep field safety. He does a really good job of recognizing where the ball is going, allowing him to close large distances despite the lack of elite speed:
He also shows a good understanding of what teams are looking to do, such as on the following play where he recognizes the crossing pattern early and – despite being in a deep zone – is the first player to the receiver:
He also has the ball skills to make plays on the ball if teams make the mistake of throwing it at him:
Even if he isn’t likely to convert to receiver:
Overall, Denis isn’t an elite cover safety – but he is able to make up for a lot of his athletic deficiencies with his ability to process the game and his movement skills, which also give him a level of versatility that teams will like. He likely wouldn’t be the deep safety that the Panthers would have in an ideal world, but he’s almost certainly an upgrade over Da’Norris Searcy in that regard.
Up Next: Run Defense And Player Comp
