Third Round Grades
First, a little something on why I’m already talking about third-round graded players inside my top 32 prospects. As I have said before, I grade players in a way that aims to replicate the number of players who reach a certain level as pros, not based on the number of picks in each round; I actually have roughly the same number of second round grades as last year and more third round grades, but I just don’t think the very top of this class is very strong. Sometimes this happens – if you can name five elite players from the 2013 NFL draft, you’re doing pretty well.
This doesn’t mean that this class is terrible, once you get beyond the top 30-40 prospects, I think it’s actually one of the stronger classes in recent years, but that the top tier talent just isn’t there in the numbers it usually is. This is compounded by the abnormal density of developmental prospects in this draft class. There are a lot of players in this class with the potential to be great, but who need a lot of technique work to make the most of that potential; a handful of these players will become great pros, but working out which handful is not something that is possible from tape alone, though the relative chance of each player reaching that point is something I take into account with my grades.
In short, just because I don’t have first or second round grades on the likes of Montez Sweat, DK Metcalf or Noah Fant doesn’t mean that I don’t think they have elite potential, but rather my attempt to also acknowledge that, if they aren’t able to develop significantly beyond who they are now from a technical point of view then they won’t be particularly valuable NFL players.
Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma; 5’10 207lbs
I can see why Murray is the presumptive #1 overall pick. He is able to make throws that nobody else in this class can and his elusiveness with ball in hand is remarkable, but there are also issues. He has a tendency to take off if his first couple of reads don’t get open early, and there are also some ugly misses to go with his highlight throws. If a team thinks that he can function well in an NFL offense without resorting to scrambling under pressure, he can be a great player – but there could be some ugly seasons in his future if he isn’t able to work inside the constraints of the offense on a more consistent basis.
DK Metcalf, WR Ole Miss; 6’3 228lbs
Metcalf has flaws, he’s underdeveloped as a route runner, has some issues against press and drops the ball far more than you’d like, but he can get deep well, offers value after the catch, competes at the catch point and flashes the potential to be a good route runner, even if he isn’t there yet. That goes a long way, and while Metcalf runs a real chance of busting, if he is able to put it all together, he can be an elite #1 receiver. That’s a risk that somebody is going to be willing to take, but it is a risk.
Rashan Gary, DL Michigan; 6’4 277lbs
Gary is a very hard prospect to tie down. There is clear upside and flashes of production on tape, but he currently lacks a clear position and needs significant technical refinement. He has the quickness to be a real threat as a gap penetrator in the run game, and with improved hand usage could become a good pass rusher, but his lack of bend will likely force him inside in the NFL and could struggle with pad level and hand usage in the short term. The talent is there, but there’s a lot of work to do.
Greg Gaines, NT Washington; 6’1 315lbs
Greg Gaines is going to be a player who some schemes have no real use for, and even in the schemes were he is suited, his impact is never going to be fully represented in the box score. He isn’t going to rack up TFLs or QB hits and likely won’t even get many tackles, but his ability to hold his ground at the point of attack even against double teams and to push the pocket against solo blocks will have value for teams that want to free up space for second level defenders. Star Lotulelei might have been overpaid by the Bills, but players of this type do have real value in the NFL.
Mack Wilson, LB Alabama; 6’1 240lbs
There are enough concerns with Wilson on tape to drop him compared to where his potential should suggest, with the biggest concern being whether he can hold up physically inside in the run game, but players with his movement skills at his size are going to be in demand in the NFL – and Wilson has the potential to be an excellent matchup piece on defense; 4-3 teams will likely be willing to live with his lack of technique as a run defender, but if he doesn’t improve in this regard his value will be limited as an all-around player.
Take all of these grades with a grain of salt; players with a third round grade will almost certainly be selected in the first round and a player like Johnson will likely still be available on Day 3. These are grades of the players as prospects and how they might translate to the NFL rather than where I expect them to be drafted; as always, scouting is a subjective science – for more on my scouting process involving hundreds of hours of watching tape, check out this article.
