Each week this offseason, we’ll be focusing on one position and how the Panthers may choose to address their needs; whether they’re in the market for an upgrade at starter or just a reliable backup, every player on the 53-man roster is going to be important in 2018.
This is Quarterback Week.
Quarterback may not be the biggest need for the Panthers going into this offseason, but with Derek Anderson an aging free agent and no obvious backup to Cam Newton on the roster, the Panthers may well be interested in a young QB once the draft enters the middle and later rounds. With that in mind, what might the Panthers options be in this 2018 Class?
Quarterback Big Board
The brutal truth is that most draft prospects don’t make it, and for many of the prospects on the board above (those listed as being draftable, according to NFL Draft Scout) will not have long NFL careers. Of course, scouting of tape in this way is not an exact art, and at some positions this is only made worse by the significant step up in competition from the college level; quarterback is one of those positions. Many of those above will be limited by their physical ability to make throws but for many, the barrier to entry for most prospects will be their ability to run an NFL offense. This might not be the 3-D chess game that it is sometimes made out to be, but it isn’t easy either.
As a team will only ever have one player at quarterback on the field at all times, quarterback prospects tend to fall into tiers in a way that most prospects don’t; a rotation quarterback doesn’t really exist like a rotation cornerback or defensive tackle who may only see a certain amount of snaps per game. For many quarterbacks, their lack of arm strength will likely limit how far up the board they can climb; a player who simply cannot throw the ball deep effectively is always going to be somewhat limited as a starter. While the 2018 QB draft class is strong at the top, the number of players who are at least hindered by their arm strength is possibly higher than usual. Apart from the top three guys, there are perhaps only seven others who have a chance of developing into starters, the rest are likely going to be career backups of varying gradations. So what about those seven?
Wake Forest QB John Wolford. Photo: Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports
Gradations of Mediocre
NFL teams will use an interview, if not several, to try and grasp how well a prospect is likely to do at the next level. For the rest of us, all that is available is tape to watch, but in many cases a lot can be gleaned from what is on film. Josh Rosen showed a consistent ability to master passing concepts even when under pressure while at UCLA; he stands atop my draft board as a result. Both Kurt Benkert and Sam Darnold have at least some red flags when it comes to the mental side of their games and those seven remaining prospects all have at least some concerns in this area.
JT Barrett and Luke Falk both show significant issues processing reads, and while Mason Rudolph is better in that area, there are still enough times where he struggles on tape to question how well he will be able to transition to the NFL. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have both played in quite simplistic offenses where their reads have been kept quite simple; neither are the elite passers to cause them to be anything other than speculative prospects, though speculative prospects do have a history of working in the NFL. Carson Wentz was a speculative prospect and he was a torn ACL from winning the MVP in his second season. John Wolford has shown some really nice things as a senior, but his ability to process reads is somewhat uncertain.
That leaves Baker Mayfield.
Every year, there seems to be a quarterback prospect who divides opinion as to whether he is the second coming of Tom Brady or just a guy. This season, that seems to be Baker Mayfield; on tape, Mayfield shows a good arm even if his touch does seem to come and go. While he has decent accuracy and an ability to make plays with his feet, where he falls down is when it comes to his ability to function as part of an offense. He exhibits the very worst bits of Brett Favre, the desire to throw the ball deep at any opportunity; while this means that he makes a fair number of spectacular plays, he also passes over a number of open receivers underneath. Unless you have the talent of Brett Favre, it is hard to be successful in the NFL without adhering to the plays as they are designed to work; Mayfield might be fixable in this regard, but his Jekyll-and-Hyde performance against Georgia was more typical than some might be willing to admit.
Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield. Photo: Sports Illustrated
Outlook
Rosen and Darnold will almost certainly be off the board in the top ten picks, and Jackson, Mayfield, Allen and Rudolph have all been mocked as high as late in the first round. From what’s left, the Panthers may well be left with the scraps, but both Benkert and Wolford could be on their radar as a project. Benkert has the making of a draft riser, given his powerful arm; should he still be there come the middle rounds, he could be excellent value as a backup to Cam Newton. John Wolford is far more likely to be around at the end of the draft, and given Hurney’s comments about taking chances on quarterbacks, the Demon Deacon could well be somebody the Panthers look to take a chance on either in the late rounds or as an UDFA.
It should be stressed that I am neither a psychologist nor a doctor; any concerns with a player either off the field or medically will not be taken into account in these articles.
