There have been many positives for the Panthers so far this season; an elite defensive front, improved play from the secondary and Cam Newton making Cam Newton Plays to name just a few. However, for all these positives, the Bills game on Sunday highlighted a significant concern for all Panther fans: if the Panthers can’t score touchdowns then it will hard to win consistently against the better teams in the league.
So far this season the Panthers are one-for-six in the red zone, and have had another two drives stall in the opponent’s 25. Those numbers would have ranked the Panthers as the worst red zone offense in 2016, with a percentage less than half that of any other team. There are many potential reasons why an offense might struggle in the red zone; play calling, blocking and skills position execution being the most likely; and this piece will hopefully determine which of these is being the Panthers’ early struggles.
Shaking off the Rust
Having only thrown two passes during the preseason, it should really come as no surprise that Cam has shown some signs of rust during the first two games. This looked to be better for much of the game against the Bills, but ultimately his overthrow of McCaffrey was the best chance the Panthers had to score.
While not unexpected, Cam’s rust is still an issue, albeit one with a reasonable expectation of being resolved in the near future. However, this year’s offense looks to lean heavily on Cam once again, so any lingering issues would be extremely limiting. While Cam looked to run the ball effectively for the most part against the Bills, there were still a couple of plays in the red zone that again showed some rust.
On this play, Trai Turner is meant to force his man outside to create a central running lane. However, Kyle Williams is able to establish inside leverage and so stuffs the play. Clearly, some of the responsibility lies with Turner, but Newton should notice this and look to bounce the run outside. Some of this will be improved with more game reps, and Cam’s rust shouldn’t have fans hitting the panic button, but it certainly isn’t helping put points on the board at this point.
The final aspect where Cam appears to be rusty is in some of the reads that he is making. While this play is far from perfectly designed, there are two man beating routes; to Olsen and to Benjamin; with McCaffrey also getting open against the linebacker late in the play. With one high safety, Newton needs to read the safety and then hit the correct receiver in either the center or corner of the endzone.
For whatever reason, Newton looks to try and force the ball over the middle to Benjamin, leading to an incompletion and an unnecessary hit on the receiver. This throw will sometimes result in a touchdown, Benjamin nearly manages to hold on, but can also lead to incompletions, interceptions, and possibly an injury to the receiver. Whether this will be improved by more game reps is less clear, but if not, then the Panthers will be rolling the dice every time they enter the red zone.
Blocks in the Road
The offensive line play last season was, to be frank, absolutely abysmal. While injuries certainly didn’t help, if the Panthers cannot show a marked improvement this season then they will have significant difficulty in avoiding long third downs and probably worse.
There are times in the red zone when teams simply have to be able to punch the ball in. Some of what goes on in the above play is due to poor technique or lack of power; Greg Olsen shouldn’t be blocking defensive linesman on goal-line runs; but a lot of it has to do with communication.
This play looks as though Stewart should punch the ball in by running behind Ryan Kalil and Williams over the left guard. Matt Kalil and Norwell do a decent job of clearing out the left side, and Funchess does a good job of sealing off the edge rusher. However, Turner fails to hold his block and Stewart is forced to bounce the ball outside.
While Turner’s missed block is an issue of technique; he sets himself too high and is driven up; but the more significant issue it the apparent lack of coordination. Williams doesn’t seem to know who it is he should be blocking and as a result doesn’t end up effectively blocking anybody. If Turner makes his block, then a seam could have been created by Williams pulling behind him and helping Ryan Kalil to clear a seam.
These apparent communication issues were certainly not aided by Ryan Kalil’s injury before the Bills game. On the first play, Matt Kalil just completely fails to block the edge rusher allowing quick pressure on Cam and so prevents the easy completion to McCaffrey. While this might look like ineptitude on Kalil’s part, something that cannot completely be ruled out; it is far more likely to be a failure to communicate responsibilities, with Kalil thinking that McCaffrey was meant to be blocking the edge defender.
The communication issues manifested in the run game as well. On this play, Williams makes a nice block on the pull and while Kalil largely whiffs, that should have been largely inconsequential. What actually prevents this play from being a much longer run and possibly a touchdown was Larsen’s failure to push up to block the linebacker. He looks uncertain as to his responsibility and as a result ends up allowing the crucial tackle.
Communication issues like this should be fixable with reps, but the return of Ryan Kalil will hopefully go a long way in terms of assignments. There were repeated issues with pass protection and run blocking against an admittedly strong Bills’ front, and this should be a real concern, but in reality this had a limited effect in the red zone, though this may have been more luck than anything.
Skills Need to be on Show
When teams get down to the red zone, it becomes important for every player on the field to contribute in some way, as space becomes far from limited. Something that has let the Panthers down in the red zone during the past two games has been the execution by the skill position players.
Some of this is simply understanding the situation, which for McCaffrey should come with experience. While it is hard to be too critical of McCaffrey on this play, it is indicative of how he can sometimes look to create big runs at the expense of consistent yardage. This isn’t a huge issue in general, but can be a real problem in the red zone. On the play above, he should recognize the corner penetrating and be content to cut inside of him and drive up the field.
While this is unlikely to result in a huge gain, it would go a long way in preventing negative plays in a position where they can be least afforded. Of course, the blocking on the edge is also an issue on this play and several others
This play looks as if it was designed to be a simple dive run, but as the Bills are able to penetrate early on, Stewart is forced to bounce the run outside and does a decent job of not going down for a loss. However, he might have stood a chance of getting into the endzone had Manhertz been able to block the outside defender out of the play. In the red zone, even if a player doesn’t expect to be a major part of the play, they still need to work on the assumption that they might.
Limited Options
For all the blame that can be attributed to the players, some of it must fall at the feet of the coaches. On a number of plays in the redzone, Cam’s options throwing the ball were extremely limited. Sometimes this was by design, as on the following play:
Plays like this should be used in moments of last resort, not as a regular part of the red zone offense. This doesn’t mean fades in general, but running a fade to the far side of the field without any accounting for defender’s positioning is extremely risky. Although this play drew a flag from the defense, it could just have easily resulted in an interception.
Equally as troubling are the plays where there was nobody open, even as the play progressed. On the following play, the Panthers simply run all four receivers vertical with McCaffrey running a slow-developing out route. There is no benefit in all four receivers being used in the same way, and had just one of them run a short zone-beating route then the sack would likely never have occurred.
As should probably have become clear at this point, there are several areas in which the Panthers need to improve if they want to be an effective red zone offense. There should be a reasonable expectation that some of this will change as Cam gets more game reps, and some will be greatly helped by Kalil’s return, but there are other issues identified here that will take conscious change to be rectified. This Sunday’s game against a weak Saints’ defense presents a fantastic opportunity for the Panthers to get plenty of practice in the red zone; though how they fare is very much in their hands.
