If you are able to use a calendar, or have any sense of time, you will be aware of the fact that the 2020 NFL draft is a long, long way off in the future.
However, it’s always good to be prepared, and what’s more, with there being quite a lot of college football games, if you find yourself flicking between UT Chatanooga at Arkansas State and Colorado State at UMass, this article should hopefully help in picking a game where you have a chance of watching somebody who the Panthers might be looking at come March.
Part one covered the offense, now let’s look on the defensive side of the ball. College Football kicks off this Saturday.
Keisean Lucier-South, EDGE (UCLA, Senior); 6’4 235lbs
Photo Credit: Kirby Lee/USA Today Sports
Brian Burns looks good – really good – and while there are likely to be some growing pains at some point in his rookie season (almost every rookie hits some sort of wall, however small), he is going to be starting for the Panthers sooner rather than later. Christian Miller has been less spectacular during camp, but should also be expected to see a significant rotation role if nothing else going forward. The Panthers also have a pair of veterans in Mario Addison and Bruce Irvin, as well as a number of rotation pieces vying for a spot on the roster going forwards in Efe Obada, Marquise Haynes and Bryan Cox. Given all that, why would they look to add another edge player next offseason?
Well, for a start, Addison, Irvin, Obada and Cox are all some form of free agent after this season, and while one or more may return, it is unlikely that all four find themselves on the 2020 roster. Add to that the fact that while the three edge players who are under contract through the next three seasons do all have a lot of potential – especially Burns and Miller – none of them have shown anything at the NFL level thus far, and while that doesn’t mean they won’t be good players – to be clear, I think both Burns and Miller have a chance to be very good – but the odds of all three working out are pretty low. What this all means is that while the Panthers have no need at edge rusher right now, but unless they are able to bring everybody back and every developmental option works out, they are likely to need to add some more depth, if nothing else, next offseason. Also of note is that if the Panthers are going to move more fully to a 3-4 defense, they are likely to need to continue to add edge rushers who have more experience dropping into coverage.
Keisean Lucier-South’s time at UCLA can hardly be seen as anything other than a little disappointing. Having arrived as a five-star recruit, Lucier-South was expected to be the next hyper-athletic edge option, with his speed and length being perfect for the pass-happy Pac-12. However, having redshirted, he struggled to see the field as a freshman and only won a starting role partway through his sophomore season. There are, however, a couple of redeeming features, first that UCLA’s coaching situation has been a complete mess in recent years and that as a team they have been wildly disappointing and second that he has shown improvement throughout his college career. This improvement can best be seen in terms of his statistical development as much as anything, as having combined for all of one sack and two passes defended during his first two seasons at UCLA he managed to log four sacks with five passes defended as a junior, along with an interception. This isn’t exactly gaudy statistical production, but at least he is moving in the right direction.
It’s hard to get an exact handle on Lucier-South’s draft stock, as if the draft happened right now it would be a surprise to see him taken before the fifth round, but given his athleticism, it wouldn’t be a shock to see an improved statistical season and a good showing at the combine earn him day two grades. As a late round pick, Lucier-South offers intriguing upside, but unless he shows marked technical improvement he isn’t somebody the Panthers should have interest in If his stock does rise sharply between now and the draft.
Marvin Wilson, DT (Florida State, Junior); 6’5 311lbs
Photo Credit: Logan Stanford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Panthers’ defensive front for 2019 looks extremely potent. Teams will be forced to pick between KK Short and Gerald McCoy all while leaving Poe single-blocked on a consistent basis. However, McCoy is a free agent after this season and if he doesn’t show a marked decline, he will likely cost too much for the Panthers to bring him back without making sacrifices elsewhere. Additionally, they don’t have a ton of natural depth at the position with Vernon Butler being more of NT and Kyle Love really being better suited to playing in a 4-3 defense and also getting up there in age. Finding somebody who can start opposite Short should McCoy leaves is a must-do, and even if they are somehow able to bring McCoy back then they will need to add quality, scheme-suited depth.
Marvin Wilson saw his first season as a regular starter last year, and while his statistical production of 4 TFLs including 3.5 sacks doesn’t really jump out, the tape tells a somewhat different story. His game is very much built more around power than speed, looking to use his remarkable strength to try and force blockers off-balance before using this to his advantage. Of course, given his length, in order to consistently generate push he is reliant on playing with a consistently good pad level, and while this is something he generally does well, he does struggle against double teams in particular where the two offensive linemen are able to work together to drive him upwards and therefore negate his power advantage. Working against solo blocks, however, he is consistently able to drive blockers backwards and off balance.
What is really impressive about Wilson, however, is how he is able to use that power to his advantage in other ways. He locates his hands very well, consistently getting inside location with long arms making it hard for blockers to get to his frame and so making it easier for him to release from blocks when he wants to. Against the run, this makes him extremely effective when asked to fit into gaps or to two-gap, and as a pass rusher this then opens up a range of pass rushing options. Wilson also flashes fast, strong hands, meaning that when he is able to initially drive a blocker off balance he is then able to capitalize on the opportunity, primarily through the use of a well-developed rips move, but he also flashes a promising power swim move to work around blockers.
Wilson needs more development, his pad level could be more consistent and his pass rushing repertoire, highly promising though it is, could do with some polishing, but he is already a very good 3-tech and could offer the Panthers an immediate impact player opposite KK Short going forward who still has room to develop further and become a legitimate star. If the Panthers do keep McCoy around after this season, it will be hard to draft another interior defensive lineman as high as Wilson is likely to go, but regardless of what happens elsewhere with the Panthers, Wilson would fill a need for the Panthers.
Antonio Jones-Davis, LB (Northern Illinois, Senior); 5’11 220lbs
Photo Credit: NIU.com
The Panthers need at linebacker ultimately comes down to whether Shaq Thompson stays or goes after this season. If he stays, the Panthers have a pair of high quality starting linebackers with affordable quality depth in Jermaine Carter and Andre Smith. However, if Thompson doesn’t return, the Panthers will likely look to start Carter alongside Keuchly, which will in turn will create depth issues, especially if they also want to use Carter and Smith as outside linebackers in the 3-4 defense from time to time. If the Panthers plan to keep Carter as a depth piece without resigning Thompson, they will likely have to spend a significant amount of either cap space or draft capital to do so, but if they simply need to add affordable quality depth behind Carter, that is something they could well look to do in the later rounds of the draft, similar to what they did in 2018. Enter Antonio Jones-Davis.
Of course, whenever you look to add players on the final day of the draft you do so knowing that they are unlikely to be a fully-developed complete player, and Jones-Davis is no exception. He needs to improve as a run defender in particular, as at his size he needs to show far more consistent technique with his hands if he wants to avoid getting swamped by blockers at times. Like most college linebackers, he will also have to adjust to the greater complexity of the NFL game, as while he showed a lot of promise in coverage, he will be asked to play in a greater variety of coverage forms in the NFL compared to what Northern Illinois ran.
What he does well, however, does give him a lot of upside for a player that is likely to be drafted on the final day of the draft. He shows good quickness and pursuit speed, allowing him to cover the full width of the field as a run defender and also makes him a real threat as a blitzer against both the run and the pass. He shows good tackling form, though this could also do with some work when he gets to the NFL; he shows generally good gap awareness and discipline. In coverage, his speed allows him to run with tight ends and running backs, and while he isn’t as athletic as Thompson in this regard, he has more than enough range to play inside in a 3-4 defense as a three-down players. Crucially, he also shows good lateral agility, allowing him to break on routes and mirror receivers in man coverage.
There is also a slight hesitation when projecting players who have been highly productive at smaller schools to the NFL, and while Jones-Davis’s 2018 stat line of 130 tackles with four sacks and six passes defended is impressive, it is his skill set that should be more intriguing to NFL teams than his college production. The Panthers probably will have bigger needs than linebacker next offseason, hence looking more at late round options here, but Marty Hurney has made it clear over the past couple of drafts that he is always looking to find players in the later rounds who can develop into contributors down the line, and Jones-Davis certainly falls into that category.
Up Next: Options To Improve The Secondary
