The Panthers have made it very clear that they are looking at options to move down and, while they are unlikely to move down for the sake of doing so, this is going to be something that is a more proactive part of their draft strategy under Scott Fitter than is was under Marty Hurney or Dave Gettleman. With that in mind, it is worth spending a moment to consider what trading down from the 8th pick might look like, and the types of deals the Panthers might consider come the eighth pick.
The Shuffle
This is probably the most likely option for the Panthers, where they move back a handful of spots in return for good but not amazing compensation. If the top quarterbacks as well as the likes of Sewell, Pitts and Chase are off the board come the 8th pick then the Panthers will likely still get calls from teams looking for a wide receiver, cornerback or offensive tackle, but are unlikely to get the kind of compensation that has fans jumping for joy.
This doesn’t mean that this type of move wouldn’t be excellent business, however, as the Panthers have made it very clear they have a top tier of sixteen players and if they are able to move back four or five spots where at least some of those players will still be on the board while also adding perhaps a third-round pick both this year and next year then that should be celebrated by Panthers fans.
Apr 28, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Jack Conklin (Michigan State) with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the Tennessee Titans as the number eight overall pick in the first round of the 2016 NFL Draft at Auditorium Theatre. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
In terms of historic deals of this type, fans can look back to the 2018 draft when the Bucs traded back from the seventh pick to the twelfth pick with the Bills and added two second-rounders in return (though admittedly the Bills were moving up for a quarterback), or in 2016 when the Bucs also traded back this time from ninth to eleventh and picked up a fourth-round pick for their trouble. The best-case historic example, however, is probably the Browns-Titans trade from 2016 where the Browns traded from 8th to 15th in return for a third and a future second.
With respect to potential trade partners for such a move, the Eagles have made it very clear they might be interested in trading back into the top ten for a receiver and the Chargers could look to make a move to secure one of the consensus top two tackles, though teams like Dallas and even the Giants could be options depending on how they view their needs and how the board falls.
Oct 17, 2020; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) catches a pass after Georgia defensive back Tyson Campbell (3) fell. Waddle turned the catch into a 90 yard touchdown during the second half of Alabama’s 41-24 win over Georgia at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr/The Tuscaloosa News via USA TODAY Sports
The Punt
Given the Panthers’ statement about having sixteen first round grades, it seems unlikely that they would be too enthusiastic about moving back beyond the sixteenth pick region. However, as Matt Rhule made very clear last offseason, everything has its price and if somebody later in the draft were to make the Panthers an offer they can’t refuse then they would likely be willing to listen.
Any more like this would probably have to involve multiple first round picks and, while it would probably lead to the Panthers shifting focus more towards the 2022 season than the 2021 season, given this team is still relatively early in their build towards contention, this could be something they would consider for the right price.
Photo Credit: David J. Phillip/AP
For historical comparisons, the Panthers would certainly hope to get more back than the Steelers in 2019 who traded from ten to eight in return for a second and a future third. A better comparison would the Bills trade with Kansas City in 2017 where they traded down from tenth to 27th in return for a third and a future first. There aren’t a huge number of such trades in recent history for good reason, and so this is probably the least likely of the options for the Panthers.
In terms of potential trade partners, the Panthers would likely only be able to get such a return for a team with a title window it wants to maximize. The most likely options in this regard are therefore the Ravens or the Packers. Of those two the Ravens have the most draft capital to put on the table in any negotiation, but it would likely take both of the Ravens first rounds in 2021 and then some to get the Panthers to move as far back as 27th.
Nov 9, 2019; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; LSU Tigers wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (1) pulls in a touchdown pass over Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Trevon Diggs (7) during the first quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
The Blockbuster
This is the one that the Panthers hope materialises but is also the one most dependent on things out of their control. To get a move like this the Panthers would have to have one of the top four quarterbacks on the board with the 8th pick and have a team in the 15-20 range willing to be aggressive to go get them. While that could potentially put the Panthers outside of that sixteen-pick range, if one or two players off the board already are not in that sixteen and the Panthers have a lower grade on a few of the consensus top prospects then they could maybe be willing to trade down a little further.
Unsurprisingly for the best-case scenario, there is very little not to like about such a trade. The Panthers would get one of their top prospects while also receiving significant draft capital. It would also likely allow them to be aggressive in moving back up a couple of spots if they so wish given how much they would hope to get back in return.
North Dakota States Carson Wentz poses for photos after being selected by the Philadelphia Eagles as second pick in the first round of the 2016 NFL football draft, Thursday, April 28, 2016, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
In terms of potential returns, the Panthers could look to the Bucs-Bills trade from 2018 mentioned earlier, but they would probably be hoping for something more like the trades for quarterbacks in the top five picks that we have seen in recent years. While the Panthers obviously don’t have a pick that high, the depth of the 2021 quarterback class in terms of elite prospects is also highly untypical.
This means the compensation would hopefully be more like the haul the Colts got for the 3rd pick in 2018 where the Jets gave up the 6th pick along with two second round picks and a future second round pick for Sam Darnold. Or even like the Browns trade with the Eagles for Carson Wentz in 2016, where in moving back from the 2nd to the 8th pick in return for swapping a fourth and a sixth for two seconds, a third, a future first and a future third.
This would be a historic haul for the 8th pick but, given what the 49ers gave up to move from the twelfth pick to the third pick (and what Miami gave up to move from the twelfth pick to the sixth pick), this isn’t completely beyond the realms of possibility.
Photo Credit: Ralph Freso/Getty Images
The teams most likely to make a trade like this are the Patriots, the Bears and Washington. The Patriots have the most draft capital and the fewest other needs of these teams, and a move for the likes of Lance or Fields who they can develop behind Cam seems to be the most plausible options in this regard.
Ultimately, the details of any trade offer the Panthers might get are going to depend an awful lot on who is taken with the seven picks before the Panthers select. If one of the top quarterbacks are still on the board then this is going to significant increase what the Panthers are going to be able to get back in return. Whatever happens, the possibility of trading back is certainly something that Panthers’ fans should get used to with Scott Fitterer and Matt Rhule at the helm.
(Top photo via Rod Mar/Seattle Seahawks)
