The loss to the Steelers was bad, like really, really bad, like burn-the-tape-style bad – but as much as the Panthers need to learn from their mistakes in that game in order to grow as a team, they also can’t afford to dwell on it and risk what will go down in the season stats as just one loss becoming a more significant impact on the trajectory of their season.
Luckily for the Panthers, their first opponent back off their mini-bye is not a team that is looking to make the playoffs and, having traded their starting receiver before the trade deadline, is likely looking to make it to the offseason and try to go again in 2019. However, no opponent should be taken lightly in the NFL, and while the Lions might not have much to play for in terms of playoff aspirations, they would most certainly enjoy ruining some other teams’ hopes along the way. So what do the Panthers need to do in order to come back from Detroit with a win?
Run The Ball, And Well
The Detroit Lions are not a good defense against either the run or the pass, but their run defense is not just bad – it has shown the ability to be bad over a large sample size. Four times this season, a team has been able to put over 150 rushing yards on the Lions, and the only times they have been able to hold a team to under 100 rushing yards were against the Bears, Patriots and Packers – two of these three showed the Lions grabbing an early lead and the opponent abandoning the run to chase the lead.
What is worth noting, however, is that last week’s game against the Bears was by far their best performance of the season in terms of run defense, and while the Bears rushing offense this season has been more about quantity than quality, the addition of Damon “Snacks” Harrison will also likely have helped the Lions’ run defense by creating more space for their linebackers.
That might sound like a reason not to run the ball against the Lions, but one player doesn’t suddenly transform a rush defense even to the extent that the Lions run defense could be described as good, and there is a very good reason for focusing on the running game against the Lions – their pass rush. The Lions have been one of the best teams in the NFL this season in terms of their pass rush, and while the Panthers’ offensive line has been solid this season, the Steelers game showed that this is still not a unit to hang your hat on – if the Panthers are able to move the ball consistently on the ground, that will not only work to slow down the Lions’ pass rush, but should also help to put the Panthers in situations where they can work off the run to create big passing plays down the field against a Lions’ secondary that ranks 31st in the NFL in terms of yards per completion.
Don’t Let Kerryon Carry On
Photo Credit: USA Today
Kerryon Johnson has been really good as a rookie; while his running style might not match Saquon Barkley in terms of spectacle, Johnson is actually averaging a far better yards-per-carry average on a similar number of carries. While some of this is due to the fact that he has been able to break a couple of big runs so far this season, he is genuinely an excellent running back who does a good job of reading rushing lanes and uses this vision combined with a nice burst and enough power to gain yards after contact to be an effective interior rusher.
Fortunately, the Panthers have actually been pretty good against feature-type backs so far this season, with most of their struggles in the rushing game being on draws and other plays that look to take advantage of when a defense gets too focused on stopping the pass. In terms of talent at least, the Panthers should fancy their chances of stopping Johnson – if they are able to clog the interior rushing lanes, what he hasn’t shown the ability to do is break the big play out of nowhere in the way that Saquon has done so well. It might not be exciting or hugely ground-breaking, but the most effective way to stop Kerryon is to maintain gap discipline and to tackle effectively. Do that well, and they have every chance of limiting Johnson and taking away the Lions best hope for a big offensive performance.
Take Off-Coverage Off the Play Sheet
While a lot of people have focused on the pass rush, the Panthers biggest issue against the Steelers was actually their overuse of off-coverages and the fact that the Steelers were able to exploit this, having clearly identified it as a weakness on tape. In this regard, the Steelers have given the rest of the NFL a blueprint of how to attack this Panthers’ defense in a low-risk, high-reward way. The question now is if the Panthers are able to adjust to this and prevent themselves being exploited in this way going forward.
The adjustment they need to make is actually very simple; they need to stop playing with their corners starting 10 yards off the line of scrimmage and move towards a more press-style coverage. This doesn’t mean the Panthers need to be playing man-press across the board on every play, but if they are going to give receivers 10 free yards on every play then they can’t complain when the Steelers – and the rest of the NFL – take this free yardage. This is not a weakness unique to the Panthers, but they are possibly the most extreme in the usage of these soft coverages.
While moving closer to the line will increase the risk of being beaten over the top, the Panthers have the best set of corners they have had for a while and need to trust their corners to cover deep and give the pass rush a chance to generate pressure, because if the ball is going to come out within two seconds of the snap, there is no chance for the defensive line to generate any form of pressure at all. It would be completely unfair to expect Eric Washington to be perfect in his first season as a defensive coordinator, but a major way in which he should be judged as the Panthers move forward is how he is able to learn and adjust from the mistakes he has made. He failed to make in-game adjustments against the Steelers and let’s hope that with a week to watch tape he has been able to make suitable adjustments – it could be a long second half of the season for the Panthers if they are not able to prevent teams from beating them in the way the Steelers did last week.
The Lions are far from the best team the Panthers will face this season, and while the road aspect will add a certain amount of difficulty to the proceedings, this is a game that the Panthers should expect to win. Move to 7-3 and they are right back in the driver’s seat for a playoff push, slip to 6-4 and far more serious questions might start being asked – let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.
