Having taken their first road win of the season last week in Philadelphia, the Panthers now return to Charlotte with the aim of keeping their spotless home record intact. Despite the not-so-flashy 4-3 record, the Ravens are possibly the best team the Panthers have faced to this point, with the NFL’s highest ranked defense and a top-10 offense, and while that sounds like something of a daunting prospect, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. So how can the Panthers come away with a W against the Ravens?
Commit To The Run, And Stay Committed
The Panthers under Ron Rivera have always proclaimed themselves to be a run-first team, and for much of that time that has rung true. However, in the past two games the Panthers have had just 15 combined running back carries, and while some of that can be put down to them trailing for much of those two games, the Panthers will need to stay disciplined in sticking to the run to have success against the Ravens. That is not because the Ravens are bad against the run, they rank fourth in the NFL, but because they will need to avoid making themselves one-dimensional if they want to prevent the potent Ravens’ pass rush from being able to pin their ears back and go after Cam Newton; the Ravens said that last week the consistent rushes by the Saints tired out the talented defensive front by the end of the game.
The Ravens’ best defensive performance this season was their shutout on the road against the Titans, a game in which the Titans had just 12 running back carries. By going away from the run game early, the Titans allowed the Ravens’ pass rush to go all-out after Mariota without having to worry about the run game; this ended badly for the Titans. Even if the Panthers aren’t able to have early success on the ground against the Ravens, they need to keep trying at least occasionally in order to keep the pass rush at bay.
Of course, if the Panthers are going to keep running the ball they will need to be able to churn out solid yardage in order to keep moving the chains, and with the speed on the Ravens’ defense it will be important for the running game to focus on getting downhill quickly. They might only use three down-linemen, but with an extra linebacker on the field, any stretch runs are going to struggle for success. While McCaffrey has shown the ability to be successful as a downhill runner, the Panthers would be wise to mix in CJ Anderson as well at times; his more direct running style is well suited to grinding out consistent yardage in the way needed to stay ahead of the chains against a very good defense.
Keep Your Options Open
Going back and watching the Ravens dismantle the Titans offense, one thing that stood out for the Titans as a positive was their ability to have success off of play action, especially from the shotgun. A common and effective form of this, and something the Panthers have run in the past, are run pass options, with an in-breaking route on the read side of the field forcing the underneath defender to choose between defending the run and the pass. If the Panthers are able to use run fakes and option attacks to force some doubt into the minds of the Ravens’ defenders, that momentary hesitation could give Newton time to work the underneath routes.
The other card the Panthers can play is Cam Newton’s ability as a ball carrier. Not only does this help to mitigate some of the Ravens’ pass rush, but it can also be used to help the rushing game as a whole. Despite having one of the more mobile quarterbacks in the NFL, the Titans failed to use this to much effect against the Ravens and paid the price for their lack of imagination or bravery. The Panthers’ offensive line is unlikely to fare much better than those who have already faced the Ravens in terms of getting push, but if they can use Newton’s rushing threat as part of an option attack, they might have more to show for their efforts than the 3.8 yards-per-carry that the Ravens have allowed to this point.
The advantage of using an option running game is that forces the Ravens to defend every player on the offense, as even if the Ravens have more defenders in the box than the Panthers have blockers, then the unblocked Ravens’ defender is still forced to try and defend both Newton and the running back. To counter this, the Ravens have to bring even more defenders into the box, opening up screens and quick outside passes. The other advantage of option rushing attacks is that they put a greater focus on gap integrity as opposed to pushing people downfield; this simplifies the blocking scheme for the offensive line, allowing a mediocre offensive line to have success even against a good front seven.
The option attack isn’t some miracle cure that will allow the Panthers to somehow overcome the Ravens, but it would be foolish for the Panthers not to make use of one of the best rushing quarterbacks in history, and while the option offense relies on the threat of Newton keeping the ball, this is not the same as him having to carry the ball a lot. If they can build some RPOs on top of the option rushing attack, then all the better.
Prevent Defense
Despite playing some excellent defense, the Ravens are 4-3 for a reason, namely that their offense hasn’t been as spectacular as a top-10 ranking might suggest. They have done an excellent job of not turning the ball over on offense, but they rank 27th in completion percentage, 18th in yards-per-completion, 31st in yards-per-carry and 27th in yards-per-play. This is not an offense that has shown the ability to methodically build drives on a consistent basis, and while some of this is a result of having consistently good field position due to the play of their defense, this offense just isn’t that good.
Their offensive line is average and currently banged up, Joe Flacco is far from a top-tier QB, Alex Collins is a fairly mediocre starting running back and they lack outside receiving options with a heavy reliance on tight ends in the passing game – the combination of Nick Boyle, Maxx Williams, and Mark Andrews has 41 receptions. Because of that, the Ravens run a lot of multiple tight end formations on offense, which should play into the hands of a Panthers’ defense which is far stronger at linebacker than it is at corner, at least beyond the first couple of names. If the Ravens are going to have success against the Panthers, it will either be to an atypical performance by either team, or through a small number of big plays.
Therefore, what the Panthers can’t afford to do is allow the Ravens to get big gains out of short plays. This means solid tackling, good gap discipline and good communication on the back end. At times this season, the Panthers have been undone by excellent play – Eli’s pass to Odell and several catches by Tyler Eifert spring to mind – but the Ravens don’t have the talent to make these spectacular plays with any consistency. Instead they rely on the defense making mistakes to create their big plays, and that is something the Panthers have struggled with at times this season.
The Panthers’ offense is going to struggle to put up a chunk of points on the Ravens, and so for this team to come out of this weekend 5-2 they will need the defense to do their job and hold the Ravens’ offense in check. They don’t need to be amazing to do this, but what they do need to be is consistent and error-free. Keep the Ravens under 20 points and the Panthers have a real chance of winning this game.
The Ravens have some real strengths, and if the Panthers fall behind early as they have the past two weeks, that will only play into the hands of the Ravens’ defense and their vaunted pass rush, but if the Panthers can stay ahead of the chains with any consistency – whether this involves the option offense or not – while forcing the Ravens to build drives on offense then they should be able to extend their home winning streak a little bit further.
