Welcome to the Week 14 edition of Panthers Picks & Props, where our friend Cort Smith will run down his favorite Panthers-related bets and fantasy plays each week. Cort is a lead writer at RotoViz and the founder of Bet the Prop, a site specializing in the emergent player prop betting market. As of July 26, sports gambling is legal at sportsbooks in Cherokee, North Carolina – even though the sportsbook isn’t technically open up there, that’s not to mention the myriad of online options emerging – we’re not here to judge, we’re here to make you some money.
It’s the end of an era, as the Panthers will play their first game without Ron Rivera at the helm since the 2010 season. For betting and fantasy purposes, this shouldn’t change too much — Norv Turner remains in charge of the offense and while his son Scott is calling plays, there’s no indication that a dramatic switch in philosophy is forthcoming.
Especially as they are 3.5-point underdogs to a Falcons team expected to get Julio Jones back this week, I’m expecting more of the same — plenty of passing attempts as the Panthers play from behind. That’s where we start with our first prop play of the week, before giving you a word on why we’re also fading Devonta Freeman despite his juicy matchup versus a leaky Panthers run defense.
And we’ll wrap up with some notes on a few primo Panthers DFS plays for Week 14.
We were on our way to another winning week when Greg Olsen was knocked, leaving us short on his yardage prop and having to settle for a 1-1 week. Our prop picks in this space are now 14-8 (64%) on the year.
Christian McCaffrey
Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-112 @ DraftKings)
Death, taxes, and Christian McCaffrey piling up air yards against the Falcons.
McCaffrey’s receiving chops have been heavily featured in each of the last three matchups between these division rivals. He more than doubles his output through the air when facing the Falcons, averaging an insane 14 targets, 12.3 receptions and 100 yards through the air.
Dan Quinn’s defense has been much better at defending RBs in the passing game this year than it has been in the past, but that doesn’t apply to McCaffrey, who hit them up for 121 yards on 11 receptions just a few weeks ago.
McCaffrey ranks first in targets and second in receiving yards among all RBs. In all, he’s gone over our target mark of 55.5 receiving yards in three straight games, and with the Falcons favored by 3.5 points, I love McCaffrey’s chances of again commanding 10-plus targets while playing from behind.
Devonta Freeman
Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-109 @ DraftKings)
The Panthers were already a run-funnel defense and injuries along their defensive front, which now include Gerald McCoy, have them getting wrecked in the run game even more of late.
It was the trend that had us playing the over on 34.5 rushing yards for Derrius Guice last week, and he hit 129 yards… on just 10 carries.
So while I understand why oddsmakers have set this line at 55.5 yards for Freeman this week, it’s still too high. He’s nowhere near as talented as Guice; in fact, he’s been among the least-effective RBs in the league this year:
- His 3.4 yards per carry ranks eighth-worst among all RBs averaging at least 8 carries per game, barely ahead of Peyton Barber (3.2).
- His 40% success rate on runs is fourth-last among all RBs.
- His DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) is seventh-worst, per Football Outsiders.
When active, Freeman’s been one of 20 RBs to receive at least 75% of his team’s rushing attempts. Despite all that volume, he’s averaging just 42.2 rushing yards per game. That’s far and away the worst mark in this “workhorse” group — Kerryon Johnson is second last in this cohort at 51.3 yards per game, 22% clear of Freeman.
It’s hard to get fed that much and produce so little, but Freeman and the Falcons are finding a way. While he’s managed a few outbursts, overall Freeman has been under this target mark of 55.5 yards in eight of 10 games this year.
At his 3.4 yards per carry average on the year, Freeman would need 17 carries to hit the over, something he’s done just twice all year.
Panthers DFS Notes
- Christian McCaffrey won’t come cheap at $10.300 on DraftKings this week, but we’ve already demonstrated his monster ceiling this week, so you’ll need to pay up or get left behind.
- The fantasy and betting markets are finally starting to catch on to what we’ve been telling you since the summer — DJ Moore is an elite WR. He’s priced up at $7,000 this week but is still a relative value as just the 11th-most expensive WR option, especially considering he’s the WR4 in scoring since Week 8. He’s in a smash spot again this week — Moore was targetted a career-high 15 times in their first meeting and the Falcons are giving up 2.2 fantasy points per targets to WRs, second-most in the league.
- With Greg Olsen out, Ian Thomas makes for a fine punt at TE at a price tag of just $2,500. He was targeted four times after Olsen left last week’s game with a concussion. In seven career games with Olsen out of the lineup, Thomas is averaging nearly six targets and 10 fantasy points per game.
