Welcome to the Week 3 edition of the Panthers DFS Guide. Before we dive into week 3, let’s review last week.
Week 2 Recap
Photo Credit: Carolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey racked up 19.8 DraftKings points and 14.8 points on FanDuel and Yahoo. While he didn’t hit paydirt, he did secure the three-point bonus for rushing over 100 yards on DraftKings. Although the Panthers aren’t running a lot of offensive plays, CMC’s usage remains strong.
It looked like D.J. Moore could have a strong game after the first drive of the second half in New York – but that didn’t come to fruition. He scored the Panthers lone touchdown and had 13.3 DraftKings points and 11.8 points on FanDuel and Yahoo.
Baker Mayfield (13.3 points on all three sites) was inaccurate with the ball and was not helped out with drops from Shi Smith. My call to fade the Panthers tight ends worked out as Ian Thomas and Stephen Sullivan only caught a combined two passes for 26 yards.
No Panthers found their way into the winning lineups in the biggest tournaments that each site offered. Will that change this week? Let’s dive into the Week 3 preview.
TOURNAMENT PLAYS
Christian McCaffrey
Photo Credit: Chanelle Smith-Walker/Carolina Panthers
DraftKings: $8,800 (-$100 from Week 2)
FanDuel: $8,500 (-$500 from Week 2)
Yahoo: $36 (-$2 from Week 2)
Pricing is extremely tight for Week 3. The main slate features elite and expensive quarterbacks such as Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts. As you can imagine, players will want to stack their QBs with respective wide receivers on their team. The field will likely try to pay down at the running back spot in order to pay up at QB and WR.
As of Saturday morning, CMC is projected to be played by 8 to 10% of the field on DraftKings. He may come in closer to 20% on FanDuel as his price is considered somewhat low.
The Panthers and Saints have a total of 41 (per DraftKings Sportsbook) as of Saturday morning, which is the second lowest total on the main slate Sunday.
CMC received five targets each in Weeks 1 and 2. If he can get 7 to 10 in this game, he has a chance to have a ceiling game. I think CMC is suitable as a tournament play, especially if a majority of our competitors are not going to play him on DraftKings. He’s still getting the usage that we want and carries an elite ceiling.
Michael Thomas (DraftKings: $5,900; FanDuel: $7,300; Yahoo: $23)
Chris Olave (DraftKings: $4,500; FanDuel: $5,500; Yahoo: $15)
I don’t enjoy touting the competition but to channel my inner John Fox: “The other teams are practicing and getting paid, too.”
After two injury plagued seasons, Thomas leads the Saints in targets (17) and touchdowns (3) this season. Olave is second on the team with 16 targets and is the Saints primary deep threat. I would not be shocked to see the Saints attempt multiple deep shots to the rookie on Sunday.
FADES
The Panthers passing attack
D.J. Moore (DraftKings: $5,600; FanDuel: $6,400; Yahoo: $20)
Robbie Anderson (DraftKings: $5,000; FanDuel: $5,700; Yahoo: $13)
Baker Mayfield (DraftKings: $5,200; FanDuel: $6,600; Yahoo: $23)
Although the Panthers have been passing more than anyone expected, they haven’t exactly been efficient. This stat from Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis isn’t exactly an endorsement of the Panthers passing offense:
Carolina is 2nd in the NFL in early-down pass rate 67.8% in neutral game scripts.
Just 17.1% of the Carolina 1st & 2nd down plays have resulted in a 1D or TD, the lowest rate in the league.
Carolina is averaging needing 8.4 yards to gain on 3rd down, the most in the league.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) September 19, 2022
D.J. Moore has had big games against the Saints in the past and he would be my pick if I decided to play one Panther wide receiver. For this particular slate, I want to try and get elite wide receivers from games with higher totals if possible.
The Panthers Defense in Tournaments…for now
As of Saturday morning, the Panthers defense is projected to be played by over 20% of the field on DraftKings thanks to their price ($2,600) and Jameis Winston’s multiple back fractures and tendency to turn the ball over.
If Justin Herbert is ruled out and Chase Daniel starts for the Los Angeles Chargers, I would expect that the Jaguars would become the most popular play as they are $300 cheaper and every dollar matters this week.
At the beginning of the week, the Chargers were favored by 10.5 points by some books and that line has shrunk down to 3.5 on Friday after Herbert did not practice.
The Panthers haven’t forced a turnover yet this season and if they were ever going to do it – this would be the week. The Panthers defense is better suited for cash games (head to head’s, 50/50’s and double ups) as opposed to tournaments. This could all change if we find out Herbert is ruled out.
If Herbert is ruled out, then the Panthers defense would be a better play in tournaments as most of the field will likely play the Jaguars – if Herbert is ruled in, I would not play the Panthers defense in tournaments.
