Welcome to the Week 4 edition of the Panthers DFS Guide. Before we dive into Week 4, let’s review last weekend’s win.
WEEK 3 RECAP
Between the low game total, the matchup and what we had witnessed from the Panthers offense during the first two weeks of the season, I was not overly enthusiastic about using any of them in my DFS lineups.
Christian McCaffrey will most likely always be in consideration for tournaments for me each week. CMC carried the ball 25 times – the third highest carry total of his career – for 108 yards. Unfortunately, the Panthers passing offense remained inept sans two plays from Laviska Shenault. CMC only caught two passes for seven yards on four total targets.
CMC scored 16.5 fantasy points on DraftKings and just 12.5 on FanDuel and Yahoo. For his salary on all three sites – you didn’t get what you paid for when taking CMC.
My call to fade the Panthers passing attack worked out. Baker Mayfield’s box score would’ve looked utterly horrific if Shenault had not taken a short pass to the house. D.J Moore and Robbie Anderson caught one pass apiece. While Michael Thomas only caught five passes for 49 yards, Chris Olave caught 9 passes for 147 yards and smashed his price tag on DraftKings with 26.7 fantasy points.
The Panthers defense scored 16 fantasy points by forcing three turnovers and scoring a touchdown.
While I wasn’t high on the Panthers offense in Week 3, I’m bullish on them for Week 4.
SLATE OVERVIEW
Photo Credit: Mitch Stringer/USA Today Sports
The main slate for Week 4 features 12 games, with 9 of them kicking off at 1p Eastern.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday morning, Buffalo (-3) at Baltimore features the highest game total at 51. This is the only game with a total over 50 on the entire slate.
Seattle at Detroit (-3.5) and Cleveland (-1) at Atlanta feature the second highest totals of 47.5. The Panthers (-1) and Cardinals have a total of 43.5.
For quarterbacks, three dual-threat options with the highest ceilings are the most expensive on the slate. Bills QB Josh Allen leads the way (DK $8,400; FD $8,900; Yahoo $40) and is projected to be the highest owned QB on each site. Jalen Hurts (DK $8,200; FD $8,600; Yahoo $37) is projected to be the second highest owned QB. Lamar Jackson (DK $8,300; FD $8,800; Yahoo $39) will be a more popular option on FanDuel as opposed to DraftKings. Marcus Mariota, Derek Carr & Geno Smith are projected to be the popular options for the cheaper end of the QB spectrum.
Injuries to D’Andre Swift and David Montgomery will make Jamaal Williams (DK $6,100; FD $7,400; Yahoo $23) and Khalil Herbert (DK $5,700; FD $7,200; Yahoo $19) attractive options for both running back slots on all three sites. That duo will likely be a popular combination in lineup builds.
Speaking of injuries, CMC is questionable but seems to be in line to play. Which Panthers are viable for tournaments this week?
Let’s take a look.
TOURNAMENT PLAYS
The Panthers Passing Attack
DraftKings
FanDuel
Yahoo
Baker Mayfield
$5,200
$6,600
$27
D.J. Moore
$5,300
$6,100
$17
Robbie Anderson
$4,700
$5,700
$14
Ian Thomas
$2,700
$4,500
$13
If there was ever a week for the Panthers passing game to get on track – this is it. By most simple and advanced metrics, the Arizona Cardinals defense stinks.
Arizona is allowing 8.0 yards per passing play, the most in the league.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) September 26, 2022
I do realize that the Panthers passing offense has stunk. The eye test and data backs that up.
The Panthers offense is averaging 38.3 offensive touches per game, the fewest in the league.
Base rate is 48.3.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) September 26, 2022
Drafting Baker Mayfield and stacking him with D.J. Moore or Robbie Anderson isn’t the most comfortable decision to make when building your tournament lineups; however, I’m willing to take a few swings on them in larger field tournaments this week based on how bad the Cardinals have been.
While Moore is projected to be played by 10% to 15% of the field, Mayfield and Anderson are only projected to be played by less than five.
The Cardinals have given up the most fantasy points to the tight end position so far this season. It must be noted though that they’ve faced Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and Tyler Higbee in three weeks.
Using Baker and a Panthers wide receiver in your roster builds will definitely give you a unique lineup. Paying down at QB and a WR spot can allow you to pay up at RB or another position. The Panthers passing attack is suitable for large field tournaments where you’re building more than one lineup.
Questionable CMC?
DraftKings
FanDuel
Yahoo
Christian McCaffrey
$8,700
$8,800
$38
CMC says he feels great and is expected to play on Sunday. He is projected to be played by 10% – 15% of the field as there are more popular and cheaper options at the position.
While he has gotten consistent work in the running game sans week 1 – the biggest issue with CMC has been lack of involvement in the Panthers passing game. He only caught two passes on four targets last week. As noted earlier, the Panthers passing offense has been putrid and they are not running a lot of plays, which limits potential volume.
I think CMC is viable in all tournament formats as he provides potential leverage off the more popular and cheaper options. I’m willing to bet on his talent – especially in this matchup against the Cardinals horrendous defense.
FADES
The Cardinals offense (Sans Ertz)
DraftKings
FanDuel
Yahoo
Kyler Murray
$7,600
$7,800
$33
Marquise Brown
$6,900
$7,700
$19
Greg Dortch
$5,000
$5,300
$12
Zach Ertz
$4,700
$5,500
$16
The Panthers defense has stepped up over the last two weeks.
If you’re looking to run back a Panthers stack with someone from the Cardinals, I’d lean Zach Ertz. While the Cardinals may get Rondale Moore back, they’re still without A.J. Green (injury) and DeAndre Hopkins (suspension). Ertz has received 21 targets over the last two games and Murray has looked for him often since the Cardinals acquired him in 2021.
Whichever way you go, good luck this weekend!
