When the Panthers drafted Christian McCaffrey eighth overall, it was immediately clear how he could help the Panthers between the twenties. His speed and agility coming out of the backfield would create mismatches against linebackers, allowing for Cam Newton to dink-and-dunk down the field if teams looked to take away the deep ball. The coaches and players spoke incessantly throughout the preseason about “taking the layups” by checking down to McCaffrey; the rookie’s ability as a ball carrier was almost secondary in this regard.
The Panthers could simply use McCaffrey as something that can be used to keep defenses honest if they overcommit to stop the pass and let the player who broke Barry Sanders’ NCAA single-season all-purpose yardage record do his thing. What was less clear was how he was going to be able to contribute significantly in the the red zone, something important if McCaffrey was to fulfill the “feature back” role.
While he shows good vision at times and gets upfield quickly after making his cuts, his inability to do much after contact limits his effectiveness as a ball carrier in the red zone; with teams not having to worry about being beaten over the top so far this season, it becomes harder for underneath receivers to get open. However, McCaffrey has now shown an ability to stretch teams in the redzone, but not vertically.
Horizontally.
Getting The Edge
Just because McCaffrey’s speed is a known entity doesn’t mean that it won’t create headaches for every defense that the Panthers will face; in a straight line, he can outrun almost every linebacker in the NFL over a moderate distance. An easy way the Panthers are able to take advantage of this is on swing and wheel routes, where, against man coverage, the linebacker is forced to chase McCaffrey to the boundary and, in the case of the wheel route, turn and follow him up the field. In order to use this to it’s full effect, the Panthers vacate the space that McCaffrey is going to run into, with route combinations such as the following:
Here, they run the outside receiver up the field to draw the corner away and then run Olsen back inside to create a vacated zone, highlighted by the yellow circle. While the outside linebacker does a good job on this play of giving the pass a higher degree of difficulty, Cam is still able to put the ball in a position where McCaffrey is able to catch it and pick up a big gain.
While this play is noticeably not in the red zone, the threat of such a play has consequences in terms of how a defense looks to take such plays away.
The Touchdown
Whether Clay Mathews was bluffing about the wheel route or he really did try and alert the defense to that play is impossible to know, but when the Panthers run plays that involve McCaffrey getting to the edge, it forces the defense to hold the outside.
Assuming the edge rusher comes, which he does, the Packers have a three-on-three on the right side of the formation; by dragging Funchess across the formation they are able to both counter any zone blitz while, against man coverage, drawing the outside corner across the formation to the middle of the field, thereby leaving Olsen and McCaffrey against the linebacker and safety. By running Olsen up the field, they force the safety to follow him, leaving McCaffrey against the linebacker.
What is clear from this clip is how effective Olsen’s natural pick is; McCaffrey would likely have been open on almost any cut he chose. What might be less clear is how the threat of the wheel route is able to aid in the setting of this pick. Had the linebacker Blake Martinez been committed to stopping the underneath reception, whether angle or swing, he would likely have dove under the pick (denoted by the red arrow) rather than trying to go behind the pick as he did to guard against the wheel.
However, had he dove under the pick, he would almost certainly have exposed himself to the wheel route. In order to not let McCaffrey get behind him because he is sure of what the route will be, he tries to go around the pick and gets tangled with Olsen.
Matthews thought he had watched enough film to recognize what play the Panthers would be running and point it out to fellow linebacker Martinez, but instead the threat of McCaffrey’s speed, along with on-field mics picking up Cam Newton’s trash talk, created a break-the-internet video of the Packers’ mistake.
Clay Matthews: It’s that wheel route, it’s that wheel route
Cam Newton: You been watching film, huh?
Matthews: Yeah
Cam: That’s cool. Watch this
Cam: Slant to McCaffrey TD
I can’t stop watching this.pic.twitter.com/PZcfiayC7T
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) December 18, 2017
The issue for the Packers, and indeed any team the players play, is that McCaffrey has shown the intelligence to allow for option routes in these circumstances, with the determinant for whether he runs an angle or a wheel route being how the linebacker reacts to the pick. If the Panthers can pair these man-beating routes on one side with the Funchess zone-blitz beater and zone beaters on the near side, they can use one play to attack multiple coverages by stretching the defense horizontally.
It doesn’t matter if the defense know what play is coming if they don’t have a coverage to stop it.
