The draft is a time for optimism for every team, as with every player still on the board they – and certainly their fans – feel that they have a chance to add a future star at a key position of need. However, while there is a chance the Panthers walk away from the first round of the draft on Thursday with such a player, they also have to be prepared for the board falling in such a way as for that not to be the case. This is something that Marty Hurney spoke about in the pre-draft press conference, saying that the Panthers have a contingency plan for every eventuality – so with that in mind, if everything doesn’t fall nicely through the first 15 pick, what is the worst case scenario?
Trade Options
Hurney made it very clear in that same press conference that he would much rather be in a situation where he feels he can trade back than one where he feels he has to trade up. However, given that they are only likely to trade up for a player who they really like, it is hard to view this as the worst-case scenario, as it isn’t a move you can be forced into by outside circumstances.
From a trade point of view, the worst case scenario is one where there is either no option to trade back, or that which you are going to get back in return by trading back cannot compensate for the risk. Essentially, this is the situation where there is nobody on your board that you love and nobody else loves any of the options either. What would be insufficient compensation for the Panthers to consider trading back would depend on exactly what their board looked like at the time, and is something that one could write an entire book on, let alone an article, and so for now we’ll simply say that, from a trade point of view, the worst case scenario is one where the Panthers are forced to taking their highest rated player at 16 even with their top-five wants being gone, which really isn’t by itself too bad of an option.
So if the players at the top of the Panthers’ draft board have been taken – and you likely know who they are – which players might the Panthers consider that are further down their board?
The Offensive Line
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The Panthers have also made no secret of wanting to upgrade the offensive line, and probably the best case scenario for them is one where they are able to take an offensive tackle at 16 who can start from day one with a high ceiling – players like Jawaan Taylor, Andre Dillard or, even though I’m not as high on him, Jonah Williams. However, there is a fair chance that isn’t an option and all three of those tackles are gone before the 11th pick, so they would then be forced to chose between a player who has the potential but might need some work, a player who can start right away but who doesn’t have a great ceiling or an interior offensive lineman to compete with Greg Van Roten at guard with Daryl Williams and Taylor Moton starting on the outside.
In terms of interior offensive linemen, this really isn’t a hugely strong class, especially at the top, and while there are a couple of college tackles that people project might be good guards, that is only a projection; while Van Roten isn’t an ideal starter, there aren’t that many guards in this class who are locks to be better players for next season. By contrast, there are probably a couple of offensive tackles who would make this team better in 2019, especially given Daryl Williams’ injury concerns; with Williams a free agent in 2020, they may be able to start a player like this long-term. The downside with these players, however, is that they are unlikely to ever be great players, and could lead the Panthers to once again look to upgrade the position down the line – these would be players such as a Dalton Risner or maybe a Cody Ford, if viewed as a tackle – Ford would certainly be thought of as an immediate starter at guard and an intriguing option at tackle down the road.
The other option is somebody who might need some time to develop before they see the field, or who might experience some growing pains if played early but have the ability to become a franchise piece with time. The value of such players is tied significantly to how well they are able to learn with good coaching, and the Panthers may not feel that any of the players in the 2019 class who fit this description are worth the 16th overall pick, but given the stopgap nature of the left tackle position in Carolina since the retirement of Jordan Gross over five years ago, the potential to find a long-term solution may be more valuable than improving the quality of the stopgap. Players such as Greg Little or Tytus Howard would be examples of this kind of developmental tackle.
So that’s option #1.
Up Next: Secondary, Edge Rushers and Other Options
