A lot has been said already this offseason about the Panthers potentially moving from the 4-3 defense they have run under Ron Rivera since 2011 towards more of a 3-4 defense. There are several advantages to this, as well as some downsides, but given the Panthers’ struggles getting to the quarterback last season, this is something that certainly could help generating pressure on passing downs.
However, this change in defensive scheme will necessitate a change in personnel, some of which has already happened, some of which requires some tea leaf reading, and some of which could well be on the way in the upcoming draft – which is why the Panthers first-round pick may not be barreling full speed towards either an edge rusher or tackle as quickly as most think.
First, let’s look at the moves that the Panthers have already made, both in terms of the players they have brought in and the players they have let go. The only significant signing on the defensive line for the Panthers has been Bruce Irvin, and while he can play the EDGE in both a 3-4 or a 4-3 defense, his ability to drop into coverage and play in space make him better suited to playing in a 3-4 defense.
Similarly, by not bringing back Wes Horton at the same time as Julius Peppers retired, the Panthers have also made a clear move away from their base 4-3 defensive ends, with Horton being the least suited of their edge rushers to playing in a 3-4 defense.
This is a trend that they could continue in the draft, or work back against.
Drafting players like Brian Burns, D’Andre Walker or Christian Miller would signal a real commitment to playing this new 3-4 defense, while players like Clelin Ferrell, Anthony Nelson or Zach Allen – if viewed as EDGE rushers at least – would signal that maybe there is going to be more of a real balance between the two schemes. However, while there has understandably been a lot of focus on edge rusher for the Panthers this offseason, if the Panthers are going to move to a 3-4 defense, the more significant move might be what they do, or don’t do, on the interior.
The Panthers showed significant interest a few weeks ago in former Chiefs DE Allen Bailey by bringing him in for a visit, and while he eventually left without a deal, this is as close as the Panthers have come to addressing possibly the biggest issue with the current roster if they look to run a 3-4 defense: 3-tech defensive lineman.
In a classic 4-3 defense, a team has two interior defensive linemen, a 1-tech who lines up between the center and the guard and one 3-tech who lines up outside the guard. On rushing plays, this leaves the 1-tech responsible for the A gap on one side and the 3-tech responsible for the B gap on the other side. On passing downs, the emphasis is on the 3-tech who is positioned to be able to work one-on-one with the guard away from the help of the center.
Historically, the Panther have used the likes of Star Lotulelei, Dontari Poe, Colin Cole and Vernon Butler at the 1-tech with Kawann Short, Kyle Love and Dwan Edwards at the 3-tech, though Love can also play the 1-tech effectively at times. So what does this mean for a 3-4 defense?
In a 3-4 defense, a team has three interior defensive linemen – it’s right there in the name – with one 0-tech lined-up over the center and two 3-techs. The Panthers shouldn’t have an issue at 0-tech with Poe having played there previously with the Chiefs, Butler certainly having the profile of a 0-tech at 6-4, 330 pounds and Love having already been discussed as an option by Rivera in his press conference last week.
The issue, as alluded to earlier, is the lack of natural 3-techs on the roster.
Kawann Short can certainly start on one side, but as things stand right now, the Panthers would be forced to play somebody opposite him who isn’t really suited to the role – quite likely Bryan Cox, Jr. – with absolutely zero depth behind that; Love was mentioned as a 3-tech possibility as well, but even still – that’s not enough.
Generally, teams that run a full 3-4 defense carry two nose tackles (NTs) and four 3-techs, with four EDGE players as well, or at least something along those lines. At best, the Panthers currently have three 3-techs, with only one being a clear NFL-caliber starter – so if the Panthers are going to move towards a 3-4 defense, then that significantly increases their chances of taking a 3-tech early in the draft.
In my mind, there’s a real chance of the Panthers taking a 3-tech like Jerry Tillery or Christian Wilkins in the first round – make that doubly so if the top three tackles are off the board.
If they do this, this would be the strongest indication yet that the Panthers are committed to moving away from their base 4-3 defense, but if the Panthers fail to address the position in the draft or with a signing immediately afterward, this would be a similarly strong indication that the Panthers are in fact maybe not quite as committed to playing a 3-4 defense as reports to this point have indicated.
We’ll just have to wait and see.
