The Panthers play host to perhaps the hottest team in the NFL, a team that hasn’t lost since Case Keenum took the reins at quarterback from Sam Bradford in Week 5 and have won eight straight to bring their record to 10-2. While it will be an uphill battle on Sunday, the game may not be as one-sided as statistics like “The Vikings are Top 5 in both offense and defense” and “The Vikings are #1 in the NFL at third-down efficiency, again, both offensively and defensively”. If the Panthers can avoid mistakes and play their brand of football, they just may be able to get out of Charlotte with a win and keep pace in both the NFC South and the wild-card race. As always, our five-part preview:
Five Players To Watch
#99 Kawann Short, Defensive Tackle
So far this season, Short has been relatively quiet from a statistics standpoint even as he plays at an elite level week in and week out. This week is one of Short’s best chances to have his performance heard throughout the NFL due to the Vikings starting interior offensive line being lackluster at best. Short will need to create havoc early and often in order to give his teammates opportunities to make plays; if he can make a few plays himself then the Panthers defense will be in a great position to keep the Vikings in check.
#26 Daryl Worley, Cornerback
Last week Worley didn’t record an interception even though he had his hands on the ball, but he still had a great performance and looked much better than the last time the Panthers faced the Saints. This week, Worley will need to have a similar performance due to the Vikings receiving corp being great at creating space; if Worley can keep Adam Thielen in front of him then he will be able to break passes up and possibly record that interception a week late. Either way, Worley seems to have stepped up and is showing the coaching staff why he should be on the field more than Kevon Seymour.
#22 Christian McCaffrey, Running Back
McCaffrey is slowly becoming a must watch week-in and week-out; this week is no exception. The Vikings have been phenomenal on the defensive side of the ball this season and as such, a weakness is hard to find; however, if you squint, there are chips in their armor. Teams that utilize running backs as receivers and pre-snap motions to get said running backs a favorable matchup have given the Vikings fits. McCaffrey has 64 receptions, good for second among running backs, and 501 receiving yards which is good for fifth. His prowess as a receiving back isn’t the only thing that makes him a must-watch player this week; the Vikings other weakness comes from rushes around the left end that feature pulling linemen which happens to be McCaffrey’s bread-and-butter as a runner.
#41 Captain Munnerlyn, Cornerback
Munnerlyn reportedly left “millions” on the table in order to leave Minnesota and come back to Carolina; is he primed for a revenge game? Munnerlyn has been average at best this year when he has seen playing time, which has been limited due to Shaq Thompson’s versatility and Kevon Seymour’s season-long battle with Daryl Worley, but if there was a game to leave Munnerlyn on the field, it would be this Sunday. His ability to cover underneath routes will be integral due to Minnesota’s Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen being superb route runners and possessing the speed to turn a quick shallow route into thirty or forty yards before the defender can react. Furthermore, to Munnerlyn this is a “prove it” game and he, like Steve Smith, is someone who always steps up in these types of games.
#75 Matt Kalil, Left Tackle
Another former Viking, Matt Kalil will need to show some serious improvement in order to make his old team regret picking up former Panther Mike Remmers to replace him. If the offensive line can prevent the Vikings from sacking Newton eight times then it will be an improvement over last years performance and Kalil will play an important role in keeping Newton upright thanks to Everson Griffen, who recorded three sacks last year, lining up opposite him. He will also need to be a strong run blocker this weekend considering the Vikings weakest area of run defense comes on runs around the left edge.
Four Comparisons
Minnesota’s Passing Attack vs Carolina’s Passing Defense
The Vikings like to create room and time for Case Keenum through rollouts, play-action, spacing-based routes and an open scheme meant to prevent the defense from being able to blitz. However, Steve Wilks will likely call more than a few blitzes considering his aggressive nature as a defensive coordinator; if those blitzes can’t connect, safeties Mike Adams and Kurt Coleman had better be in near-perfect position because the Vikings possess the offensive weapons to make over-aggressive defenses pay.
Minnesota’s Rushing Attack vs Carolina’s Rushing Defense
The Panthers have had trouble tackling bigger backs; that could come back to bite them this week because of Latavius Murray. The best way to slow the Vikings rushing attack is force them to rush up the middle and limit their ability to stretch the field which means that Thomas Davis, David Mayo and the cornerbacks are going to need to make open field tackles along the edge when the Vikings test them.
Carolina’s Passing Attack vs Minnesota’s Passing Defense
The Vikings passing defense is scary and it will be hard to find areas for the Panthers to attack; Minnesota has been particularly poor defending deep passes to the right side of the field, but the Panthers have been particularly terrible attacking that section, so it may be a wash. Carolina will need to use a mixture of crossing routes to find space over the middle of the field to work because the Vikings corners are too good against short passes to the edges; flood concepts won’t work well because of their ability to play strong man-to-man defense. Spacing-based concepts and passing plays that feature running backs coming out of the backfield have been successful against Minnesota, but they can also take time to develop which could be a real issue on Sunday.
Carolina’s Rushing Attack vs Minnesota’s Rushing Defense
The Panthers rushing attack has been successful against undisciplined defenses because of Mike Shula’s ability to create confusion. This week the Panthers will need to show that they can win individual battles against a disciplined defense in order to succeed at rushing the football; the best plan of action will be to force certain players, like Anthony Barr, out of the play without blocking them and executing good blocks against the rest of the team. The Panthers should look to pull the right tackle and right guard and pitch to the left side of the field, which has seen some success against Minnesota. They should also focus their interior rushing behind Trai Turner while utilizing Alex Armah as a lead blocker which is another thing that has been successful against the Vikings.
Three Matchups
Daryl Williams vs Danielle Hunter
It seems like every week Williams is lining up against one of the NFL’s best defensive ends, and this week is no exception. Hunter has been one of the best run-stopping defensive ends in the league and has been productive as a pass rusher as well, tallying six sacks so far. If Williams can handle Hunter one-on-one the rest of the line can shift to give Kalil extra help against Everson Griffen; if Hunter wins the matchup, the Panthers offensive scheme will need to shift in order to give Newton time or else we could see a repeat of last years performance.
Devin Funchess vs Xavier Rhodes
Last year Xavier Rhodes shut down Kelvin Benjamin with ease and if the Panthers are going to move the ball against the Vikings stout defense, Funchess is going to need to prove to be a harder assignment. This matchup will give fans a good idea of where Funchess stands compared to other top receivers thanks to Rhodes elite skillset; if Funchess can simply be a good decoy that creates opportunities for others, he will have succeeded. If he can turn in a big play or two on top of that, then it may be time for the memes about the Panthers never having a number one receiver to fall to the wayside.
Harrison Smith vs Greg Olsen
A vintage Olsen performance in his return to the field would go a long way towards helping the Panthers offense move the ball this week, considering the strength of the defense and their ability to lock down multiple players. If Olsen can find a way to get behind Harrison Smith or take him out of the play to open space then the Panthers offense should be able to string together a strong performance against an elite defense.
Two Plays That Matter
Vikings – Spacing
The Vikings offense has been very successful running shallow spacing concepts and most of their touchdowns are thrown to wide open receivers because of these concepts. In particular, the Vikings have found success running four wide sets involving trailing, flooding and spacing combinations that work well against zone-based defenses like the Panthers.
Panthers – Mismatching
All offenses try to create mismatches on every play, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Panthers best plan of action is to find mismatches this week. The Vikings have had trouble keeping receiving backs, such as Chris Thompson in the play above from Week 10, in check and Christian McCaffrey is one of the league’s best receiving backs. As such, plays that finds McCaffrey lined up against linebackers or with open space in front of him should make up a large portion of the playbook this week.
One Key to the Game – Third and Long
The Vikings convert only 18% of their “third-and-longs” which represents third downs where the offense needs to gain seven or more yards in order to gain a first down. The only teams worse at converting on third and long are the Ravens, Giants, and Browns; as such, if the Panthers can force the Vikings into “and long” situations they should be able to stay off the field and allow the offense to wear down the Vikings defense.
