Welcome to the Week 2 edition Best Panthers Picks & Props, where our friend Cort Smith will run down his favorite Panthers-related bets and fantasy plays each week. Cort is a lead writer at RotoViz and the founder of Bet the Prop, a site specializing in the emergent player prop betting market. As of July 26, sports gambling is legal at sportsbooks in Cherokee, North Carolina – even though the sportsbook isn’t technically open up there, that’s not to mention the myriad of online options emerging – we’re not here to judge, we’re here to make you some money.
Uncertainty surrounds the Panthers ahead of their matchup against the Cardinals this week, as QB1 Cam Newton has been ruled out. It’s Kyle Allen’s show now, and while it may hurt to hear, it’s possible that Allen may actually be an upgrade over an inaccurate Newton.
Highest percentage of uncatchable passes through two weeks:
Cam Newton 34.2%
Mitchell Trubisky 27.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick 27.3
Kirk Cousins 27.0
Kyler Murray 22.9
Matthew Stafford 22.9— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) September 16, 2019
The problem for us in the gambling world is that all this uncertainty means that bookmakers aren’t offering up the usual amount of player props for the Panthers. So this week, we have just one prop play, one that you should be able to find at a regulated or offshore book, followed by two recommended Panthers plays in DFS.
We went 1-1 on player props in this space last week, bringing our record on the year to 3-1 (75%).
Greg Olsen
Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-114 @ Pinnacle)
Mr. Reliable
Note that this prop may also be available at regulated domestic sportsbooks such as DraftKings and FanDuel. If you find one with a different price than what I’ve listed, I would play it as high as 49.5 yards. At this 45.5 line, would pay up to -130 juice.
We successfully went against Olsen in Week 1, but we’re buying this week.
You’re going to want to fire up your tight ends any time the Cardinals come calling. Talent-starved at all three levels of the defense, Arizona has surrendered:
- The most yards to the position with 273, 28% more than the next-worst team
- The most targets (23) and the most receptions (17)
- The second-most yards per TE target (11.9)
- The second-most fantasy points (45.3)
That last stat is for anyone considering playing Olsen in DFS this weekend — the Cardinals have been thrashed for 2.7 fantasy point per target season. Only the tanking Dolphins are worse.
Targets shouldn’t be a problem for Olsen. Despite battling injuries over most of the last year, he’s had at least 14% of team targets in eight of his last 10 games. 
Through two games, he ranks third in targets (18), seventh in receptions (10), and fourth in receiving yards (195) among all TEs.
Part of this play is based on the blistering pace of both of these offenses — the Panthers and Cardinals have run the fourth- and fifth-most plays per game, respectively.
It’s all about volume — Olsen should see plenty of opportunities in this one and is a good bet to be efficient with his touches.
Top Fantasy Plays
Cash Games
D.J. Moore ($5,900 on DraftKings)
Towering target counts give Moore a safe floor and plenty of ceiling, making him an ideal cash-game play. He’s been fed a ton this year — his 24 targets are tied for third-most in the league, more than DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham, and Julio Jones.
I’m not expecting much of a drop off with the change at QB, as Allen targeted Moore eight times (for 81 yards) in that Week 17 spot start last year.
This year, offensive coordinator Norv Turner is persistently putting the sophomore in high-percentage situations where he can make plays after the catch.
Those splashy YAC plays haven’t come… yet. But I like his chances of putting up a big number if he gets fed another 14 targets this week, especially against a Cardinals defense giving up the sixth-most passing yards per game.
Again, the expected high-pace of this one is a factor — the Cardinals run a lot of no-huddle, and the Panthers may find themselves forced to keep up.
Tournament (GPP) Play
QB Kyle Allen ($4,000 on DraftKings)
At minimum pricing this week, Allen is almost a must-play in at least a few GPP lineups.
And it’s not just because he’s free. It’s also because he has a ton of upside in this fast-paced affair against a Cardinals defense that’s given up twice as many rushing yards to opposing QBs as the next-closest team (142).
They can’t really stop the pass either, and it’s all added up to 34.2 DK fantasy points per game to opposing QBs so far, the second-worst mark in the league. Going back to last year, Arizona has allowed a top-three QB fantasy scorer in three of their past five games.
Allen doesn’t need to do much — he’s surrounded by three players capable of taking it for a TD on any given touch.
The odds are against him having a huge week, but this minimum pricing gives you a ton of leverage against the field in big tournaments when he does hit.
