Last week, the Panthers hosted the number one defense in the NFL and put 36 on them while holding the Ravens to seven first half points and forcing three turnovers; these are the kind of performances that make a team feel good. However, they can also be the kind of games which distract a team, and while the Buccaneers don’t have the top defense in the NFL – far from it – they are still a decent team; a team that the Panthers can’t afford to take lightly; were this not a division game, it would have trap game written all over it. So what do the Panthers need to do to move to 6-2 and put themselves in the driving seat for a playoff spot?
Don’t Get Burnt Deep
The Buccaneers rank 12th in completion percentage, but first in yardage and third in touchdowns – a large part of that contradiction is their success in the deep passing game. Ryan Fitzpatrick might have been unusually hot to start the season – no doubt aided by one of the best group of offensive weapons in the NFL – but he’s still the same guy who’s been around for the best part of a decade-and-a-half; he is hyper aggressive and looks to push the ball downfield, even into tight windows. While this allows the Buccaneers to generate some big plays, it is a high risk strategy that will give the Panthers a chance to get off the field if they play it well.
Some of this undoubtedly comes down to the players, as a large part of this involves the Panthers being able to deal with DeSean Jackson’s speed and Mike Evans’ physicality, but there are some scheme things they can do to make it easier on themselves. First, the Panthers might be able to get away with a few more blitzes than usual as Fitz’s first tendency is to look downfield rather than working underneath, but they need to be careful how they mix these with coverages, as man blitzes are going to give a highly-talented Buccaneers’ receiving corps even more chances to make plays. Whether they blitz or not, they would be advised to try and force Fitzpatrick into throws to the deep outside where they are hardest to complete or over the middle where his overaggressive nature is most likely to lead to interceptions. If Fitzpatrick is able to consistently make these throws, the Panthers might just have to tip their caps and move on, but given his historic numbers that pendulum is likely to swing back to reality some time soon.
Keep The Run Game Under Wraps
The Buccaneers run game is not their strength, as they are currently averaging just 3.8 yards-per-carry, good for 28th in the NFL, but while the Panthers rank a solid eighth in rush defense, this is largely because teams haven’t run at them a huge amount, as they allow a fairly mediocre 4.4 yards per carry, not aided by a few long runs throughout the season. Fortunately, the Buccaneers offense is not one which has generated long rushing plays this season, with their longest rushing play being just 28 yards. Given how explosive the Buccaneers passing offense can be, the Panthers can’t afford to allow any more big plays on the ground, or allow the run game to take pressure of Fitzpatrick and force defenders into the box to allow more space over the top for Jackson and Evans.
Given how much the Buccaneers look to use four receivers sets, a lot of this will come down to the defensive line, a group which has done some good things this season but has failed to truly hit it’s stride. One thing that has been very noticeable thus far this season is how much more the Panthers have used stunts and other rush techniques to try and get pressure, and while this does have a place on a defense, they risk getting a defense moving sideways rather than downhill; given how much talent the Panthers have on the defensive line, they might be wisest to simplify some of what they are trying to do and just trust their talent to be effective.
Throw The Ball Effectively
The Panthers have one of the very best rushing attacks in the NFL, and against the Buccaneers mediocre rush defense, they will hopefully be able to move the chains with some consistency – but given how poor the Buccaneers pass defense is, this game looks to be a chance for the Panthers’ passing attack to continue to grow. The Buccaneers don’t have much of a pass rush – ranking 25th in sack percentage – they struggle to force turnovers – having one interception all season – and rank stone dead last in both completion percentage and passing touchdowns allowed. Only the Raiders get close to the Buccaneers when it comes to pass defense ineptitude. So what can the Panthers do with this information?
For the Buccaneers, the issue is very much about the secondary, as they have some talent in the front seven despite the injury to Vita Vea. While the Panthers are going to be without Torrey Smith, they have a variety of weapons at wide receiver, and the deeper they can push the Buccaneers’ depth at corner the better for them; they can run four wide receiver sets and force the Buccaneers corners to cover across the board against the likes of Funchess, Moore, Samuel, Byrd and Wright. Greg Olsen and Christian McCaffrey will be valuable as always, but this is a game for the various wide receivers to show what they can do; with Torrey Smith out, there is a chance for the depth chart to get some clarity. What’s more, they have a chance to put another large number on the Buccaneers’ defense in the process.
The Buccaneers are not a bad team – they certainly aren’t a team to take lightly, especially as a division rival – but they have some significant weaknesses and their strengths rely on quite a lot of luck in order to be consistently effective. This is a team that is primed for the taking, but the Panthers have to go out there an take it rather than expecting the Buccaneers to hand it to them.
