To say things haven’t been going great for the Panthers recently would be somewhat of an understatement.
After losing four straight games to drop to 6-6, the Panthers have parted ways with two position coaches and with Ron Rivera taking over defensive playcalling, Eric Washington has been demoted in everything but the name. Frankly, it would be a surprise to see the Panthers make the playoffs at this point, but with four games left in the season, it is far from out of the question – while a loss in Cleveland would likely signal the end of their chances, a win to go to 7-6 would give them a fair amount of hope of sneaking in. While it might be hard for fans to get excited after four poor losses in a row, there is still a little hope left in the bottle; so what do the Panthers need to do in order to beat the Browns?
Stop The Running Game
Photo Credit: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
Nick Chubb has been having himself a season for the Browns to this point, averaging 5.3 yards per carry with nine total touchdowns – he has had at least 70 yards of total offense in each of the Browns’ last six games and scored in five of them, including five scores in the past three games. If the Browns are able to consistently gain four or five yards on the ground, that will allow them to stay ahead of the chains and make it hard for the Panthers to get off the field without having to rely on the turnovers which they benefited from earlier in the season.
Luckily for the Panthers, even in their last three disappointing losses they have actually defended the run pretty well, with opposing teams largely relying on long third down conversions to sustain drives. As always, this will start with the front seven, and while the Browns’ offensive line isn’t one to take lightly, this is a battle that based on form and personnel the Panthers should be hoping to win. What hasn’t always gone great for the Panthers this season, however, is preventing the occasional long run due to either a missed tackle or a breakdown in gap discipline; while the tackling aspect is hard to tie down in terms of assigning blame, the gap discipline issues have largely come from the second level of the defense. Even if the Panthers are able to limit Chubb for the majority of Sunday’s game, they need to make sure this good work isn’t undone by the occasional mental lapse.
Keep Running The Ball
The Browns have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, especially on early downs, and while the Panthers’ rushing attack has had some issues running conventional power plays in short yardage situations, the use of the option attack has allowed the Panthers to remain towards the top of the NFL’s rushing ranks regardless. Against the Buccaneers, the Panthers did a decent job of running the ball early, and despite the game not really getting away from them until the end, the Panthers went away from the running game fairly early on, which only piled more pressure on Cam Newton to make plays. Against the Browns, they need to look to establish the run early and then continue to use it to keep them from getting one dimensional.
This is especially true if they do go down early, as in a couple of games this season, the Panthers have abandoned an effective rushing game in an attempt to chase fairly small deficits – i.e. less than ten points. While turning to the passing game in the fourth quarter might be necessary, unless a team is being blown out, there is really no need to stop running the ball before the end of the third quarter, unless, of course, the run game isn’t working. The Panthers can’t afford to panic if they do get down against the Browns, it has been seen against both the Falcons and the Buccaneers that by turning away from the running game and looking to throw the ball on almost every down, it just makes things too easy for the defense, and the pass rush in particular.
Get The Ball Out, But Don’t Rush
This sounds like pretty basic advice, and something that teams should look to do every week, but this is especially true against teams with a strong pass rush. This is an area the Browns have invested in in recent years, and is starting to pay off, most notably in the play of Myles Garrett. Garrett has 11.5 sacks on the season already, despite attracting frequent double teams, and going up against Chris Clark on Sunday, he will likely have some chances to get pressure on Cam.
This will mean the Panthers would be ill-advised to look to rely heavily on long dropbacks, but instead should look to focus on making the most the weapons they do have by getting the ball out quickly and allowing players to make yards after the catch. With players like McCaffrey, Curtis Samuel and DJ Moore on the roster, the Panthers are far more built to play this style of football than in seasons past, but the crucial part of this is to be able to get the ball out quickly without risking turnovers. The Browns have players who can make plays on the ball in zone coverage, and if the Browns are able to rush Newton into poor decisions as the Buccaneers were able to do last week, this could be a long game for the Panthers’ offense.
Take Advantage of Mayfield
Photo Credit: USA Today Sports
Baker Mayfield has had something of a mixed season, and in the Browns’ recent upsurge, one of the ways they have gotten the most out of him is by getting him to focus on quick passes with simplified reads which look to limit mistakes and allow the playmakers around him to make plays. This has some obvious advantages, and if the Panthers allow him to get the ball out to open receivers quickly as they have a lot of quarterbacks this season, he has a real chance of having a big game. However, with Ron Rivera taking over the defensive playcalling, there should be some hope that the Panthers will make the necessary changes to prevent offenses from having a lot of open short throws.
If they are able to do this, the Panthers have a real chance of limiting Mayfield, as when the Texans were able to force him into longer throws last week he had a pretty even mixture of good plays and interceptions/near-interceptions. Mayfield is, after all, still a rookie; when asked to make more complex reads, he has struggled at times; along with the good plays he does make, there are a number of mistakes that are likely to give the Panthers to force turnovers. Schematically, this likely means more zone defense than in recent weeks, which should put the Panthers’ defensive backs in position to corral any inaccurate throws, but as much as anything, the players themselves are going to have to take the chances they are likely to be given.
This might feel like a broken record, but the Panthers are more talented than their upcoming opponents but, once again, they need to actually win the game in front of them; if the Panthers aren’t able to get these core aspects right, Monday could come with another set of frustrating headlines.
