Run The Damn Ball
The Panthers have run the ball really well this season – with two notable exceptions against Tampa Bay – but even in the games where they have run the ball well, there has still been something of an issue with consistency. As has been well broadcasted, the 49ers’ defense is really good, especially their pass rush; in order to both move the ball and take pressure off of Kyle Allen, the Panthers will need to be able to rely on the run game for large periods on Sunday.
This doesn’t mean that they need to notch another 200-yard game on the ground or run in three touchdowns, but rather that they need to be able to use the run to consistently put them ahead of the chains and do their absolute best to avoid obvious passing situations. This will still be true even if the Panthers go behind early, as the worst thing they could do against a defense with a good pass rush is to make themselves one-dimensional.
To do this, the Panthers need to focus their run game more around consistently gaining positive yardage rather than generating the occasion big play – at least to start with. Part of the reason why the Bucs were so successful at shutting down the Panthers’ running game is that they used their interior defensive linemen extremely well to limit the ability of the Panthers’ offensive linemen to pull and reach, something they do an awful lot in order to try and create breakdowns in the defense gap discipline.
While it is plays just like these that have allowed the Panthers to break off a number of long rushing touchdowns so far this season, they have also led to something of a stop-start offense, something that could well end up going in reverse if the 49ers are able to replicate what the Bucs were able to do in terms of stopping the run.
Take Chances To Get Off The Field
As good as the Panthers’ defense has been this season, the fact that they rank 19th in third-down conversion percentage against is something of a significant outlier. Well, that and they fact that they are 23rd in opposing red zone conversion. What this means is that while the Panthers have gotten a lot of pressure and forced a lot of turnovers, when they have been given opportunities on third down and in the red zone to get off the field, they have been quite poor at taking them.
This isn’t actually anything new, as the Panthers have only finished in the top ten in third down defense twice under Rivera, in 2016 and 2013, and never higher than ninth. This will be a particular issue this week, however, as the 49ers not only rank ninth in offensive third down conversion rate but also rank eighth in average drive length. While this 49ers offense doesn’t generate a huge number of chunk plays – or at least they haven’t this season prior to the arrival of Emmanuel Sanders – they are very good at building and sustaining drives, and a lot of that is due to their ability to create and then convert, manageable third downs.
Obviously, the Panthers need to do their best to make those third downs as unmanageable as possible, but when they do get the 49ers into obvious passing situations, they need to make sure they force Garoppolo to beat them. To do this, they need to make sure they focus on their assignments, as similar to the running game the Shanahan offense will look to create breakdowns with motions and play-action, with a view to getting the ball in the hands of the likes of George Kittle and rely on yards after the catch to generate a lot of their yardage.
This is one of the best offenses in the NFL from a schematic point of view, and as scary as their defense is, if the Panthers aren’t able to take the steps to make sure they are able to take the chances they do get to get off the field, this is a game that could start to get away from them quickly.
Do Just Enough
A lot has been made of how, coming off the bye week, this is essentially a fresh start for the Panthers, and sitting at 4-2 there are still a huge range of potential outcomes open to the Panthers this season. In practice, this means that the next month or so will likely set the tone for how this season goes, as if they can win against San Francisco then there should be a mounting expectation of this team being relevant come January – lose and the season will be much more in question. This is all very dramatic, but we are now moving into the point of the season where teams start to solidify the path of their destiny. Of course, nothing is decided in October and November, but Sunday’s game will be arguably their toughest test of the season.
The comparisons with the 2013 season are hard to ignore at times – the slow start and the great defense in particular stand out – but what that 2013 team had that this 2019 team needs to demonstrate as much as anything in the coming month is the ability to win games without necessarily dominating. In 2013, the Panthers went into San Francisco at 5-3, facing a 49ers team that would go on to narrowly lose to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game, and was able to come away with a 10-9 win.
This is obviously a very different team in very different circumstances in many ways, but unless Cam Newton comes back looking like pre-injury Cam Newton from day one, this is likely going to be a team that either wins or loses by fine margins, as most NFL teams do, and while hard to quantify, turning those close games into Ws is a skill, and one the Panthers may well have to demonstrate on Sunday.
