When offenses line up to attempt a fourth down conversion, it can be an electrifying moment. The crowd rises to it’s feet whether the home team is trying to score or defend when they realize the offense is staying in the huddle in anticipation of what will inevitably be a turning point in the game; sometimes what happens on those plays can alter a season, sometimes fourth-and-ones can even change the arc of a coach’s career trajectory. The decision to go for it on fourth-and-one will always have consequences, be they positive or negative; when the Falcons, up 10-0 in the second quarter, ran their running backs twice into the line only to be turned back on both third and fourth down to give the ball back to the Panthers, it flipped the momentum back to the Panthers, who would score two touchdowns over the next four minutes to take a lead they would not relinquish.
“That fourth-and-one is critical,” defensive tackle Kawann Short said after the game on Sunday. “Whether it’s the first series or the last series, as a defense in those situations, we’ve got to strive, we’ve got to be the best on the field. On fourth down, we’ve to be the best on the field, we’ve got to go against them guys, we’ve got to penetrate and make tackles in the backfield.”
Between the 2015 & 2016 seasons, they faced the fourth-and-one situation a total of ten times, with opponents converting for a first down on 90% of their opportunities. The rest of the NFL is converting at a 68.1% clip when facing any team but the Panthers, and after facing ten such plays combined the previous two seasons, they’ve already faced that same situation seven times in only nine games in 2017, tied with Denver for most in the league. Seven times the Panthers defense has been faced with a fourth-and-one.
Five times they’ve turned them away.
Their 71.4% success rate on perhaps the biggest down of the game is tops in the league for any team that has faced more than one situation, and the Panthers recognize the gravity of the play. “It’s a big momentum shift both ways, if you get a stop, it’s basically like a turnover, if they get a first down, the drive continues,” Luke Kuechly said earlier in the season after stopping San Francisco on fourth down three times on the road. “It’s a big momentum shifter, it kind of takes the wind out of you both ways.”
While the Panthers know that gaining the momentum is hugely important, defensive end Charles Johnson looks at offenses staying on the field with a different tilt. He doesn’t just feel as if these big plays can change the feel and mood of the game, it’s a mental win for the defense when they can get off the field. Johnson looks at coaches leaving their offense on the field as disrespectful.
“Any offense that goes against a defense on fourth down is telling you you can’t stop them,” Johnson said. “That’s how I take it. It’s a pride thing, you don’t ever want to let a team go for it on fourth down and get it.”
When Kurt Coleman and Thomas Davis combined to stuff Devonta Freeman on fourth down in the second quarter, that wasn’t the only memorable fourth-and-short situation from the game. With 3:59 remaining in the third quarter and the Panthers facing a fourth-and-one from the Falcons 30, Ron Rivera elected to send on kicker Graham Gano to attempt a long field goals much to the chagrin of Cam Newton. As Gano ran onto the field, Newton and wide receiver Devin Funchess demonstably showed their displeasure with the decision; “Riverboat Ron” said after the game that it was Newton’s cajoling in his ear that eventually led to the decision to go for it with a run up the middle.
Newton dove over the pile and picked it up.
“It’s a chip that I play with on my shoulder knowing that if I can’t, as a player, get an inch,” Newton said. “It’s mano-e’-mano, it’s eleven-on-eleven; this is what the game of football’s all about.”
The Panthers have been successful 50% of the time when electing to go for it on fourth-and-one on offense, the one they didn’t get was their final drive of a loss in Philadelphia; their opponents are two-of-seven, one-of-six when attempting to run the ball against a defense that has allowed 706 yards over nine games, fourth fewest in the league; the Panthers actually began the season by stopping the 49ers on fourth-and-one twice, including from the one-yard-line. Julius Peppers knew how important it was immediately.
“That’s a morale killer. Any time you go for it on fourth down and get stopped several times, it kind of kills the spirit.”
