The draft is very nearly here and with that the picture is slowly starting to take shape, especially for teams towards the top of the draft. While the draft always throws up a lot of surprises, and who will be on the board at the fifth pick is very hard to predict, let alone with the fifteenth pick. With that said, we’re going to have a go at predicting how the draft will develop and, given how much talk there has been about teams moving around (including the Panthers) this means we also have to project some draft trades as well. 

The odds of the draft playing out exactly like this is, frankly, very very small, but this is what we think the most likely scenario is for the various teams picking in the first round. So, without further ado…

1st Overall, Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB (Clemson)

No surprises here, and while you never know exactly how things will go, it would be extremely surprising to see the Jaguars go any other direction than this with the first pick. Lawrence isn’t perfect, and there is a chance that he doesn’t end up as the best quarterback in this draft, but he has an extremely high ceiling and is going to be extremely hard for any team to pass on. 

2nd Overall, New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB (BYU)

Wilson has been linked with the Jets for months now, and while that doesn’t necessarily mean anything come draft night, it would now be really quire surprising to see the Jets going in another direction. Wilson isn’t our #2 QB but this isn’t about what we would do, and the Jet’s trade for Sam Darnold has all-but-guaranteed that they take a quarterback rather than trading down. 

3rd Overall, San Francisco 49ers: Trey Lance, QB (North Dakota State)

This is really the first pick that is going to have significant knock-on consequences throughout the top half of the first round. When the 49ers initially traded up to the third spot it was reported that it was for Lance and, while speculation has since moved on to include both Mac Jones and Justin Fields, Lance is still the most likely pick here. Lance has the highest ceiling of any prospect in the draft but is very raw, and given the 49ers’ need at QB is more long-term than short-term this seems like a good fit. 

TRADE: New England trades up the 4th spot with Atlanta receiving the 15th pick

Atlanta are a lot more than one player away, and the Patriots have limited needs and a lot of draft capital. 

4th Overall, New England Patriots: Justin Fields, QB (Ohio State)

The Patriots are going to try and make a run with Cam Newton this year, and in the short term he is absolutely their QB, but the fact they haven’t signed him longer term is indicative of the concerns about his long-term durability and finding their new franchise QB is going to be a priority. Fields would likely benefit from spending some time developing behind a starter but has an extreme amount of talent and has a chance to be one of the very best QBs in the NFL.

5th Overall, Cincinnati Bengals: Penei Sewell, OT (Oregon)

This is another pick that has been mocked for a while and for good reason. The Bengals need offensive line help, and while Sewell is in need of further development, he has a ton of potential and has a chance to become one of the NFL’s best tackles. There are other options out there, and the links to Ja’Marr Chase don’t seem to be baseless, but the Bengals must have protecting Joe Burrow as their top need entering the draft. 

TRADE: Dallas trades up for the 6th spot with Miami receiving the 10th pick

There have been rumors of Miami being willing to trade back and while Dallas have been insistent that they aren’t looking to trade up, if Pitts is on the board with this pick then Jerry Jones might not be able to help himself. 

6th Overall, Dallas Cowboys: Kyle Pitts, TE (Florida)

Kyle Pitts is very good, and Dallas likes nice shiny toys, and while they have needs all over their defense, with an offensive head coach and an owner who seems as keen on entertaining as much as winning the thought of pairing Pitts with Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Zeke Elliott and Dalton Schultz might be too much to resist. This might not help Dallas stop teams from scoring forty every week, but it would certainly help their quest to score forty-one. 

TRADE: Denver trade up for the 7th spot with Detroit receiving the 9th pick

While the Panthers aren’t super-hot on the remaining quarterbacks, I don’t think the Broncos can trust on Mac Jones falling to the 9th spot and would be willing to jump up a couple of spots to make sure they get their man. 

7th Overall, Denver Broncos: Mac Jones, QB (Alabama)

Denver is in a pretty good position to compete right now, with the one major concern being Drew Lock’s ability to make the right decisions with the ball on a consistent basis. While Mac Jones might not be the player who will drag a team to the title, with the weapons that Denver has to put around him they need him to consistent execute rather than anything else. Denver learnt that they can win with a competent QB back in 2015 and this would give them that. 

TRADE: Miami trade up for the 8th pick with Carolina receiving the 10th pick

The Panthers really want to trade down, and while they would want to be well compensated for doing so (at least multiple third round picks if not a second round pick), Miami have the draft capital to make it worth their while and with no receivers off the board to this point they would certainly be keen to go and get their man. 

8th Overall, Miami Dolphins: Ja’Marr Chase, WR (LSU)

The Dolphins need to find weapons for Tua, and while they would certainly look hard at Kyle Pitts if he is on the board with the 6th pick, Chase is probably the best fit with what they need and could give them a player who can create receptions down the field and be a menace after the catch. Devonta Smith might have played with Tua before at Alabama, but Chase seems like the player they would prefer. 

9th Overall, Detroit Lions: Micah Parsons, LB (Penn State)

The Lions need to just add talent and keep moving as, while they do have a quarterback in Jared Goff, he is essentially on a probationary period and, if he doesn’t excel in 2021, then they are likely going to tear it down and rebuild. Parsons might not the best fit in every defense, but he is a physical player who excels in run defense and who can impact the game as a pass rusher in obvious passing situations. He also fits the toughness that the Lions seems to be looking for. 

TRADE: Philadelphia trades up for the 10th spot with Carolina receiving the 12th pick

Philadelphia want to add offensive weapons, especially at receiver, and there have been rumours of them wanting to trade back into the top ten to make sure they get ahead of the Giants. Carolina would still be happy to trade down even after having done so already. 

10th Overall, Philadelphia Eagles: Jaylen Waddle, WR (Alabama)

The Eagles could do with somebody who can take the top off the defense to pair with Jalen Reagor, their first-round pick from a year ago and, while Devonta Smith would certainly interest them as well, the speed and YAC ability of Waddle would both be hard to pass on but also a good fit with the offensive scheme they are expected to run. 

11th Overall, New York Giants: Jaelen Phillips, EDGE (Miami)

You can never have too many pass rushers and currently the Giants aren’t hugely strong at the position. Phillips needs to take the flashes he showed at Miami and turn them into more consistent production, but certainly has a lot of upside and could be a foundational piece for the young defense that the Giants are building. Offensive line and receiver are also on the cards for the Giants but Gettleman does love his pass rushers. 

12th Overall, Carolina Panthers: Christian Darrisaw, OT (Virginia Tech)

If the Panthers see Rashawn Slater as more of a guard than a tackle, while he probably can play tackle to a fairly high level as well, this means their preference is probably to go elsewhere. Darrisaw hasn’t been part of the top-10 conversation a huge amount, but he has hugely impressive tape and with some work on his hand usage could be a long-term left tackle for the Panthers. In Darrisaw, the Panthers are able to fill possibly their most pressing need early and can focus on adding talent elsewhere for the rest of the draft. 

13th Overall, Los Angeles Chargers: Rashawn Slater, OL (Northwestern)

While Slater is seen as more of a swing tackle by some teams, the Chargers have needs at both tackle and guard and so would be happy to take a player who has the ability to play both. Protecting Justin Herbert is going to be a priority for the Chargers and, while they would likely be very tempted by the top two cornerbacks still being on the board, this seems like a good fit. 

TRADE: Baltimore trades up for the 14th pick with Minnesota receiving the 27th Overall Pick

Baltimore need to add a receiver, and having traded Orlando Brown to the Chiefs they have the ability to be aggressive here and the come back to address the offensive line later in the draft if they feel they need to. With the top three tackles all of the board, Minnesota would likely be willing to trade back and look to add interior offensive line help. 

14th Overall, Baltimore Ravens: Devonta Smith, WR (Alabama)

The Ravens need to find a receiver to help Lamar Jackson and take some of the focus off of Mark Andrews, who has been their only high-quality receiving option after Hollywood Brown’s somewhat disappointing start. Smith is a very good receiver who might fall because teams are scared of his weight. Baltimore have shown in the past that they are willing to take chances on players that other teams pass on and this would be a major piece in their push for a title. 

15th Overall, Atlanta Falcons: Azeez Ojulari, EDGE (Georgia)

The Falcons have struggled to find any pass rush to pair with Grady Jarrett, and while they would likely be interested in the two top cornerbacks still being on the board, having spent a first round pick on a corner a year ago they could look to bolster their defensive line instead. Their offense wasn’t too bad in 2020 and so improving on the defensive side of the ball has to be the priority. 

16th Overall, Arizona Cardinals: Jaycee Horn, CB (South Carolina)

The Cardinals have reportedly been very interested in adding a receiver in the draft but given how much they have already invested in the position over recent seasons it’s hard to see them being as willing to part with major assets as Baltimore, and having missed out on the top three receivers they could well look to help their secondary which struggled a bit in 2020. Horn vs Surtain is a rea discussion but Horn seems like a better fit for what the Cardinals have looked for in corners historically. 

17th Overall, Oakland Raiders: Teven Jenkins, OT (Oklahoma State)

The Raiders have decided to tear their offensive line down and rebuild it, and right tackle in particular seems to be a priority entering the draft. Jenkins might not have the elite foot speed that teams look for in their left tackles but is a good run blocker who could help carve out lanes for Josh Jacobs while also being able to hold his own in pass protection. 

18th Overall, Miami Dolphins: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL (USC)

Having got Tua a weapon with their first first-round pick, the Dolphins get him some added protection with their second. They did spend some assets on the offensive line early last year as well but could certainly be keen to add yet more options with Vera-Tucker likely ending up at guard at the NFL level. Running back is another option here but I think they would see better value by waiting until the second round to address that particular need. 

19th Overall, Washington: Rashod Bateman, WR (Minnesota)

Washington would like to add a quarterback if one fell to them, but they are likely going to be happy to wait and see who is on the board rather than being aggressive. Bateman would be a really good compliment to their existing weapons as well as being excellent value at this point in the draft. Marty Hurney might not be the GM in Washington, but he will certainly have a voice when it comes to their first-round pick and Bateman would be a typical example of Hurney finding value later in the first round. 

20th Overall, Chicago Bears: Terrance Marshall, WR (LSU)

Andy Dalton needs some weapons not called Allen Robinson, and while the Bears would likely be keen to make a move for a quarterback, with the top give all being gone by the 7th pick that isn’t an option here and with Robinson’s long-term future with the team in doubt they need to add contingency options. Marshall needs further development but has some intriguing tools and could offer short-term value as a #2 option while he develops. 

TRADE: Green Bay trades up for the 21st pick with Indianapolis receiving the 29th pick

The Colts would ideally like to get some of the picks they gave up for Wentz back, and with most of the top receivers off the board this could be a way of doing that. Green Bay needs are more short-term and so can afford to be aggressive.

21st Overall, Green Bay Packers: Patrick Surtain, CB (Alabama)

It seems unlikely that Surtain will fall this far in reality, but if he makes it past Dallas and the Chargers then he might slide quite a way. The Packers have some nice pieces in the secondary but lack a depth of quality options which got somewhat exposed in the play-offs. Surtain can be a high-quality starter week one. Though knowing Green Bay they could also trade up to select Kyle Trask…

22nd Overall, Tennessee Titans: Greg Newsome II, CB (Northwestern)

The Titans defense wasn’t good last year, and they need to add to their secondary after making some moves to help their front seven in free agency. Newsome has got some buzz after some impressive performances towards the end of the 2020 season and would be a good fit for the Titans defense while showing the toughness and physicality that the Titans seems to like in prospects. 

23rd Overall, New York Jets: Landon Dickerson, iOL (Alabama)

The Jets have to help their interior offensive line, as this really jumped off the screen in a negative way when watching Sam Darnold on tape. Dickerson is an older prospect with some injury history, but he is a physical run blocker which seems to be what they are going for schematically, and having drafted their new quarterback of the future with the second pick they need to give him some protection. 

24th Overall, Pittsburgh Steelers: Caleb Farley, CB (Virginia Tech)

The Steelers look like they are going to have to rebuild their secondary once again, and while Farley could end up falling a little way due to some injury concerns, he has a lot of traits to develop with the ability to be one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL with time. There has been some talk of the Steelers going after a running back with their first pick, but they could likely wait until later in the draft to address that need. 

25th Overall, Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevon Moehrig, S (TCU)

The Jaguars just need to keep adding talent on both sides of the ball throughout the draft and see where that lands them before being more targeted in 2022. Moehrig is arguably the top prospect still on the board at this point and his flexibility would also allow the Jaguars to move him around based on how other players pan out around him. He might not move the needle that much for them in 2021, but he can be a foundational piece of an elite defense. 

26th Overall, Cleveland Browns: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB (Notre Dame)

The Browns have a pretty complete roster, with the two main areas for improvement being defensive tackle and linebacker. Some see Owusu-Koramoah as more of a safety, but his best usage seems to be in a similar role to how Jeremy Chinn was used last season in Carolina. In that sense he is something of a luxury for a defense rather than a foundational piece, but the Browns are in the market for luxury, and this would be a good value selection at this point in the draft. 

27th Overall, Minnesota Vikings: Kwitty Paye, DL (Michigan)

The Vikings defense has gone from being a real strength to more middle-of-the-pack, and they could stand to add some more talent to their defensive line especially. Paye is a player with a lot of upside to tape into even if he isn’t going to play at an elite level right away and having missed out on the top offensive line prospects he would be a good fit for a Vikings team that values players who are able to play both the EDGE and 3-tech roles depending on the situation. 

28th Overall, New Orleans Saints: Elijah Moore, WR (Ole Miss)

The Saints’ receiving corps looks quite thin once you get past Michael Thomas, and while they do have some needs defensively this is still a team that is poised to compete if they are able to get a reasonably level of quarterback play. Moore might not be a player who separates consistently in the NFL against better man coverage, but he has excellent hands and is good after the catch and could be a dangerous weapon in an offense that schemes receivers open as well as any. 

29th Overall, Indianapolis Colts: Kadarius Toney, WR (Florida)

The Colts need to surround their new quarterback with weapons, and while Toney’s stock seems to be all over the place at this point, he is certainly worth consideration at this point in the draft and with his intermediate route running, speed and after-the-catch ability he should become a valuable weapon for a quarterback who operates best when he can get the ball out of his hands quickly such as Wentz. 

30th Overall, Buffalo Bills: Najee Harris, RB (Alabama)

The Bills have been able to return pretty much all their key pieces from a year ago and will hope that Josh Allen is able to roll-over his form from a year ago. To help with that, they could look to add a bell-bow back like Harris who is able to churn out consistent yardage behind a good offensive line while also being able to add yards after the catch as a receiver. 

31st Overall, Baltimore Ravens: Zaven Collins, LB (Tulsa)

Collins is a player who can be extremely good assuming he finds the right scheme. He needs to improve as a run defender but is a really nuanced zone coverage player who can also rush the passer effectively. This would be a good fit in a Baltimore defense that blitz as much as anybody and who look to be aggressive and force turnovers on defense. Offensive line is another option here but that is something they could come back to in the second round. 

32nd Overall, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Christian Barmore, DT (Alabama)

The Bucs are returning pretty much their entire roster from a year ago, and so their needs are more long-term than short-term. To that end, they could do with finding a long-term partner for Vita Vea in the middle of that defense, and while Barmore headlines a pretty weak DT class, he would be a good fit in the Bucs’ defense. Interior OL and RB are other options here, and Travis Etienne would likely garner some consideration, but Barmore helps continue to bolster their already scary pass rush.