Stay Over The Top Of Receivers
The Rams averaged the third highest yards-per-completion last season, and a major reason for that was their use of hard play action to generate deep passing opportunities. However, one reason why they weren’t even better in this regard is that Goff underthrew his receivers on deep routes quite a lot. While the Panthers will obviously need to prevent the Rams from just running all over them, unless the running game is absolutely ripping them to pieces, they won’t be able to afford to sell out to stop the run as this will then create opportunities for the Rams to generate chunk yardage via play-action.
Of course, there are several ways to stop play action, with an effective pass rush and good coverage downfield always coming in handy, but the Rams play-action in particular has two major themes that the Panthers need to address. First, they look to go deep – like a lot. They have some effective vertical receivers, and in combination with hard run fakes, this allows them to make things very hard for cornerbacks in solo coverage.
One thing the Patriots did in the Super Bowl that worked relatively well was to keep one very deep safety over the top. This doesn’t sound like the most radical way to stop the deep passing game, but in combination with Goff’s underthrow tendency, it is especially effective. Goff is able to get away with his underthrows for the most part because he is usually throwing against defenders with their backs turned, who are liable to get flagged for running into any receiver coming back to the ball and who have little chance of consistently turning underthrows into interceptions.
Chart Via NFL Next Gen Stats
However, by keeping the deep defender over the top, Goff doesn’t have the arm to push the ball over the top of him and so is forced to either place the ball where the safety cannot get it or risk the safety being able to make a play on the ball. What this means in practice is that Goff is forced to work the ball towards the sidelines more, which both makes for harder catches than just running in the open field and also gives him a smaller margin for error. This isn’t foolproof by any means, but Goff is ultimately the weakest link in this Rams offense – you have to make his job as hard as possible.
The other thing that the Rams do an awful lot of against play action is to run crossing routes to the back side of the field, at a whole range of depths. This makes it really hard for the opposing linebackers, who have to both pursue to the strong side on the run fake and then cover the backside of the field in coverage. The Panthers do have something of the perfect linebacker group to do this, as both Kuechly and Thompson have excellent coverage range, but the key for them will also be depth. The Rams passing game largely looks to stretch offenses horizontally with the run and vertically with the pass, and that means that when the second level defenders work off the run fake, they need to focus on their depth as much as anything, as by setting too deep or too shallow, they will create the gaps between coverage levels that the Rams feed off.
In practice, this is going to be really difficult, but if there is a linebacker who can diagnose and communicate what’s needed, it’s Kuechly; this is going to be especially important against a Rams team that looks to do more than anybody to stretch the discipline and organization of a defense.
Make Goff’s Life Difficult
As mentioned earlier, Jared Goff is the weakest part of this offense, and this is essentially what the Patriots did so well in the Super Bowl – make Jared Goff beat you. The way they did this was mostly by following the two earlier steps in order to create repeated situations where the ball was in his hands behind the chains on third downs, making him work the ball down the field consistently rather than giving him an escape with a deep bomb here and there. However, that still means you have to get off the field on third down, and this is something the Panthers have been very hit-and-miss at in recent season, but the move to the new 3-4 defense gives them the perfect opportunity to really cause Goff some problems.
This is because, as well as not having the biggest arm, Goff can struggle when you take away his initial concept and make him work back and attack what is in front of him rather than what he expected to be in front of him. Of course, he is far from unique among quarterbacks in this regard, but he is a particularly extreme example. The key for the Panthers will be to disguise their pressure and coverage, to countercheck Goff effectively and to change what they’re doing defensively as the game goes on.
Of course, this is another thing that Kuechly excels at, but it will also be up to the other players on the defense – especially the edge players – to effectively disguise whether they are coming as rushers or dropping into coverage and to be able to generate pressure without having to blitz every down, as that can become very predictable. The Rams offensive line is very good, but they did lose Saffold this offseason and Whitworth isn’t getting any younger; the Panthers are going to have to ask their front to generate pressure with enough consistency that their ability to mix blitzes and coverages can be used more to confuse Goff than as a necessity to generate pressure.
If they have to keep blitzing, McVay will be able to adjust his play-calling to make it easier for Goff to attack this, but if Goff is forced to make these adjustments himself at the line and react to what he sees post-snap, that is where the Patriots were really effective and where the Panthers can be as well.
This Rams offense is excellent, and should be a real test to start the season for the Panthers’ defense. While it would be lovely to see the Panthers shut the Rams out, on the off chance that that doesn’t happen, this first game is more about doing enough to win and less about how effective the Rams are able to be and in what ways. If Goff has a great game making tight window throws to the outside thirds, you have to just tip your hat and move on, but if the Rams are able to run the ball all over the Panthers or stretch them vertically with the passing game, that will be something that should cause more concern.
The Rams might be the biggest test the Panthers face from a defensive point of view all season, but there are a number of things they can do to give themselves the best chance possible – all they need to do now if go out and execute.
