No matter what Ron Rivera said on Monday, the Carolina Panthers no longer control their own destiny in terms of the NFC standings – they could win out, finish 11-5 and there is still a scenario in which they will miss the playoffs.
That’s the bad news.
Here’s the good news: there’s a very real scenario – in fact, some may even say a likely scenario – where that destiny will flip back into the Panthers control, but it’s going to start with winning in Week 13 for Carolina as they head to Tampa Bay to take on a 4-7 Bucs team that would like nothing better than to deflate the Panthers playoff odds while still maintaining a mathematical chance at their own playoff berth. With five games left in the season, there is still a lot of football left to play and a team can get hot at the right time and enter the playoffs as a scary opponent for a division winner – the Panthers know all about that scenario, because they were that scary opponent in 2014.
In 2014, the Panthers lost six straight games to teeter on the edge of playoff contention at 3-8-1 before reeling off four straight wins to win the NFC South and enter the playoffs at 7-8-1; they’d also win their first-round playoff game over the Arizona Cardinals before ultimately falling to the Seahawks. That’s not exactly the same scenario they’re in currently – Luke Kuechly says they’re actually in a better position this season than they were then – but if you’re a superstitious person, the four wins the Panthers reeled off to go to the playoffs were against the Saints, Bucs, Falcons and Browns. The four opponents the Panthers have remaining?
The Saints, Bucs, Falcons and Browns.
“You’re always in it until you’re not,” long snapper JJ Jansen, who was on that 2014 team, opined on Monday. “It’s a false illusion that when you’re 6-2, you’re in the playoffs, just like it’s a false illusion that at 6-5 you’re out just because of where you stand in the standings. The standings only matter at the end of the season after 16 games so you take one game at a time, you do your best to beat that opponent.”
“After 16 games you add them all up and you’re either in the playoffs or not.”
Let’s try to add up some of the other teams fighting the Panthers for a playoff spot. While Cam Newton said last week the Panthers are still eyeing the division crown, with New Orleans needing two wins over the next five weeks to clinch the NFC South, we’ll focus on those fighting for the wild-card – just know that if the Saints lose the next two weeks and the Panthers win at Tampa Bay and at Cleveland, the Panthers will control their own destiny for the NFC South crown.
“We need one win. Let’s just start with one win,” said Newton after the loss on Sunday. “Everybody who is looking at the calendar and saying, “We can beat this team, we can beat that team, we play them at home.”
“We need one win and we can start with that.”
Carolina Panthers
Current Record: 6-5
Remaining Games: @Bucs (4-7), @Browns (4-6-1), Saints (10-1), Atlanta (4-7), @Saints (10-1)
There’s a joke in here about the Panthers being their own worst enemy, but despite the three-game losing streak and two matchups with the Saints looming, the Panthers aren’t in terrible shape for a playoff berth; if they can win the next two against inferior opponents on the road – no easy task the way they’ve been playing on the road in 2018 – and hold serve against the Falcons at home, that will get them to nine wins. They’ll likely need to take one of the two against New Orleans – perhaps in a Week 17 when the Saints are locked into their playoff seeding – to book their ticket on the Wild Card Express.
First, let’s look at the NFC East contenders – don’t forget one of these teams will win the division, so the team with the highest record won’t be competing with the Panthers for one of the two available slots.
Dallas Cowboys
Current Record: 6-5
Opponents Left: Saints (10-1), Eagles (5-6), @Colts (6-5), Bucs (4-7), @Giants (3-8)
Head-To-Head Tiebreaker: Panthers
Since trading for Amari Cooper, America’s Team has reeled off three straight wins and looks to be humming on offense with Cooper opening more lanes for Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott looking like 2016 Dak Prescott. A Thursday Night game this week against the 10-1 Saints will reveal a lot about the character of this team; if they’re able to topple New Orleans for their fourth straight win, that would make their road a lot easier – but a 4-1 finish down the stretch to put them at 10-6 is most certainly plausible – however, the Cowboys are one of the few teams the Panthers have the tiebreaker over and that’s if 10-6 doesn’t win them the division.
Washington Redskins
Current Record: 6-5
Remaining Games: @Eagles (5-6), Giants (3-8), @Jaguars (3-8), @Titans (5-6), Eagles (5-6)
Head-to-Head Tiebreaker: Redskins
With Alex Smith out for the year, it’s hard to picture the Redskins going 4-1 down the stretch to finish 10-6 – even tougher when you factor in that they play the division rival (and fellow perspective wild card) Philadelphia Eagles twice. While stranger things have happened than Colt McCoy leading a team to four wins in five games against teams that are all under .500, it doesn’t seem likely – it’s more likely they end up 1-2 games behind the winner of the NFC East.
Speaking, again, of the NFC East….
Philadelphia Eagles
Current Record: 5-6
Remaining Games: Redskins (6-5), @Cowboys (6-5), @Rams (10-1), Texans (8-3), @Redskins (6-5)
Head-to-Head Tiebreaker: Panthers
It seems as if the Eagles – they of the decimated secondary – have too tough of a schedule to make up a game on the teams above them, but as the only team that has to play five games above teams with winning record, albeit two of those against the McCoy-led Redskins, it just seems like too much to overcome.
With these three teams playing each other multiple times and facing either schedule or injury adversity, it seems as if the non-division-winner might end up at 9-7 or worse.
Up Next: The Non NFC East-ers
