On Sunday morning, Panthers fans woke up with hearts full of malcontent for the football club in the Big Easy. But as of 7:27 PM Eastern Standard Time on Sunday, the New Orleans Saints, as hard as it may be to swallow for some fans, officially went from enemies of the Carolina Panthers to allies.
According to the New York Times playoff simulator, which uses the Sagarin Rating (along with some very fancy computing and web coding) to do over 10,000 simulations of every outcome of every game remaining in the NFL season to estimate team’s playoff chances, the Panthers currently have an approximate 66% chance of making the playoffs. It’s approximate because the simulations are different every time they run; a 66% chance now is a 67% next time and 71% the next. The games play out differently in the simulation just as they play out differently on any given Sunday, sometimes the Browns even win.
As the records currently stand, the Panthers hold only a 7-10% chance of winning the NFC South after losing to the Saints on Sunday due to the Saints now holding the tiebreaker as well as a one-game lead over Carolina. However, while their chances at the NFC South may have slipped, they are still in good shape for a wild-card berth into the playoffs. If the season ended today, the Panthers would be the sixth seed; they make the playoffs as either the fifth or sixth seed in 57-60% of the simulations.
However, if the Falcons, who are one game behind the Panthers, beat the Saints tonight on Thursday Night Football, that number drops below 50% even before the Panthers face a tough opponent in the 10-2 Minnesota Vikings; a Saints win actually improves that number to almost 70%.
While the Panthers still have a chance to win the NFC South, a Saints win tonight actually doesn’t hurt the Panthers all that much, as Carolina would need New Orleans to lose twice while the Panthers win out in order to win the division. A Saints or Falcons win only moves the needle five percent in either direction because it would still only be about fifty-fifty the Panthers would win the division even if they were to sweep their final four games.
No true fan likes to root for a division rival and tonight will be no different; however, if you’re a believer in the numbers, you may want to start practicing Who Dat’s in preparation for the game tonight.
