For 54 minutes of game time Sunday afternoon, it appeared the Panthers would get some help from their neighbors in the Capitol City with the team from Washington ending the seven game winning streak of the NFC South leader New Orleans Saints. But when Drew Brees threw two touchdowns in the last six minutes to tie the game at 31, the tide turned in the Saints favor, and they marched away from the Superdome with an overtime victory to maintain their one game lead in the NFC South.
With the Saints down 31-16 with 5:58 left in the fourth quarter and first round pick and star cornerback Marshon Lattimore sidelined with an injury, Brees reasserted himself and took the Saints from their own 25-yard line into the endzone to cut the deficit to one score before their defense forced a three-and-out to regain possession. A bobbled catch-and-run for rookie running back Alvin Kamara left only a two-point conversion needed to tie the game, and the rookie would provide that as well on a pitch around the left side of the field. When they began their drive, they had only a 0.2% chance of winning, according to ESPN’s win probability model, but tell that to the record books.
According to ESPN’s win probability model, the Saints had a 0.2% chance of winning at their lowest point (1st and 10 at their own 45 with 4:42 in the 4th quarter). This was the biggest comeback since last season’s Super Bowl. pic.twitter.com/ei1tqzQHjm
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 19, 2017
Had the Saints lost yesterday, they would have had the exact same record as the Panthers but would remain in first place in the division thanks to their 34-13 Week 3 drubbing of the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium that birthed their historic eight-game winning streak. The Saints are the first team since 1947 to start the season 0-2 before ripping off eight straight victories; while they seem unbeatable and the Panthers may seem resigned to reaching for a wild card playoff berth, Carolina actually controls their own destiny coming off the bye and heading into the final six-game stretch of the season; the tiebreakers are complex, but the results don’t have to be.
If the Panthers win out, they will get a bye in the first round of the playoffs. It’s that simple.
With the Saints a game ahead of the Panthers and the matchup on December 3rd looming, the Panthers currently have a 68% chance of making the playoffs and only a 20% chance of winning the division, according to the New York Times NFL playoff machine. If the Panthers are able to win the rest of the games on their schedule, no easy task with the 8-2 Minnesota Vikings on the docket in addition to the division rival Saints, they will finish 13-3; if the Saints win each game aside from their matchup with the Panthers, both teams will have identical records heading into the playoffs.
If the Panthers and Saints are tied atop the NFC South, tiebreaking procedures will be:
- Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs), which would be tied 1-1.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division, which would also be tied at 5-1.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. Panthers (11-1), Saints (10-2)
The Panthers have already beaten the New England Patriots in thrilling fashion 33-30 in Week 4 while the Saints dropped their matchup to the defending Super Bowl champs 36-20 in Week 2; New Orleans’ only other loss this season came at the hands of the 8-2 Minnesota Vikings to open the season. The Panthers host the Vikings in Week 14, and wins over these common opponents that the Saints were unable to beat coupled with a win in the Panthers’ visit to New Orleans is the road to a bye in the playoffs.
While the 9-1 Philadelphia Eagles do not appear likely to slow down any time soon, the Panthers would be in line for the #2 seed if they win out, but actually have a 45% chance of the top seed in the NFC if that happens, according to the New York Times Playoff Simulator. Since the NFL introduced the wild-card in 1970, only six teams have won the Super Bowl without having a first-round bye; the Panthers have had a bye four times in their franchise history, including during their 2015 Super Bowl run, but are only 2-2 in divisional games when they have the first week of the playoffs to rest.
