The Panthers have had a somewhat mixed start to the season on defense, ranking 12th in points allowed per game but 19th in yards allowed – one thing that they have done extremely well thus far is force turnovers. So far this season they have generated six turnovers, good for sixth in the NFL, including five interceptions, which is good for third most in the NFL; it took them twelve games to get to five picks in 2017. Of course, four of those five interceptions came this Sunday against the Bengals, so how did the Panthers force those four against the Bengals and – not to put a damper on this Victory Monday – why might that not be as good as it seems?
Not All Numbers Count The Same
On the box score, all four of the Panthers’ interceptions show up the same, but that doesn’t mean that all were as impactful or valuable, given the context of the game. Of the Panthers’ four interceptions, one is obviously less valuable than the rest; the game-ending pick by Kuechly in the endzone on a Dalton Hail Mary with the Bengals down ten points. That is not to say that it wasn’t a good bit of ball-tracking by Kuechly, but that even if he had dropped the pick, the game would have ended in exactly the same fashion – the worse case scenario, a Bengals’ touchdown, would have only had an effect on those watching the spread. This pick will help the Panthers when people look through their end-of-season defensive stats, but it does little else. Still, worth another watch…
The Real Game-Clincher
While the game finished for good with the Kuechly pick, the death blow for the Bengals actually came with the pick before that. Down a score, chasing the game with just under four minutes remaining and facing a second-and-long following an Efe Obada sack, Dalton looked to hit the deep ball over the middle but instead found Donte Jackson for his second pick:
This play not only killed the Bengals’ drive but led to a Panthers’ field goal that made it a two-score game with a little over a minute to go; therefore it all but finished the game.
In terms of examining the pick, it’s hard not to put this down as anything more than an offensive mistake. Jackson did well to track the ball and make the catch, but the ball was well off-target, making it relatively easy for Jackson to get under it and make the catch; the Panthers did a decent job of getting pressure on Dalton to force him to step up into the pocket, but there wasn’t anybody directly in his face preventing him from stepping into the throw. Of course, from a psychological point of view, getting him behind the chains while chasing the game could have gotten to Dalton, let alone just having been hit by a very large man on the previous play, but this isn’t something that can really be built into a defensive game plan. Offenses will make mistakes, and it is certainly a good sign that the Panthers were able to take advantage of this mistake, but it would probably be unwise to make too much of this pick.
The Really Good Bits
First, let’s look at the Panthers first pick by Donte Jackson on a long third down in the first quarter:
There are a lot of good things going on here.
First, the Panthers did a good job on first and second down leading to the long third down and forcing Dalton into the long throw against drop-back coverage. Next, Kawann Short does a great job going against the left tackle and would have gotten the sack if Dalton had not got the ball out when he did. Additionally, Horton does a great job on the stunt against the right tackle and when he notices that he isn’t going to get to Dalton before the ball comes out he does a great job of getting in the air and into Dalton’s face to make the throw that much harder.
Finally, Jackson does an excellent job of making a play on the ball in the air. Given the distance of the throw and the fact that Dalton attempts to make it to the outside of the field, he has enough time once the ball is in the air to locate it and come down with the pick. This is excellent coverage by him, and given that this is only his third game in the NFL, Panthers fans should be extremely optimistic about his pairing with James Bradberry going forward.
Speaking of Bradberry, he once again had a good game going against a top receiver – this time AJ Green – and managed to make a play on the ball which led to the Panthers’ second interception of the game:
From the Bengals point of view, this appears to be an RPO, with Kuechly likely being the read. When Kuechly goes down with the running back on the handoff, Dalton looks to pull the ball and then has the the option of the two slants on the far side of the field. Munnerlyn actually does a good job here against Tyler Boyd and so Dalton looks to attack Bradberry on the deeper of the two slants. However, Bradberry does a good job of angling his body to wall off the inside of the field – when Josh Malone breaks inside, Bradberry is able to undercut the catch point and gets an arm in forces the ball up in the air where Efe Obada is able to make an athletic play for the turnover.
However, while Bradberry and Obada both perform excellently on this play, Kyle Love’s contribution shouldn’t be ignored; he is able to get penetration inside against the center and gets into Dalton’s face as he makes the throw. The Panthers only came away with two sacks on Sunday with four QB hits, but plays like this – where they are able to get a defender into Dalton’s face and put him off his throw – have an impact despite their absence from the box score. The Panthers pass rush has been somewhat underwhelming so far this season, but with Julius Peppers continuing to improve coming off his injury and Efe Obada looking like he can contribute off the edge, there is some hope that they will be able to be more effective going forward.
Of course, as good as turnovers are for a team in a game, they can hide defensive deficiencies that, when the turnovers dry up, can lead to a reversal in fortune. A prime example of this is the 2017 Bills, who forced 17 turnovers during their first seven games en route to a 5-2 record. However, while they still ranked ninth in turnovers at the end of the season, they failed to maintain this infernal pace during the season’s remaining nine games, and while forcing just eight turnovers during this period they struggled to post a 4-5 record and limped into the final playoff spot in the weak AFC.
Similarly, as good as the defense was on Sunday in terms of forcing turnovers, they still allowed over 400 yards and three touchdowns, numbers which are unlikely to lead to consistent winning football. As pleased as the Panthers should be with these interceptions, that shouldn’t prevent them from looking to correct the issues that are leading to the chunk passing plays and long outside runs that seem to be causing them so much difficulty.
Do this while forcing turnovers and the Panthers could have an elite defense to go with their promising new offense.
