Each week this offseason, we’ll be focusing on one position and how the Panthers may choose to address their needs; whether they’re in the market for an upgrade at starter or just a reliable backup, every player on the 53-man roster is going to be important in 2018.
This is Safety Week.
With the release of Kurt Coleman, the Panthers lost one of their two remaining free safeties from last years roster, with Colin Jones being more of a special teamer and jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none than a candidate to step in and start. While the signing of Da’Norris Searcy does give the some emergency cover, he is more of a box safety with the ability to cover the free spot if need be; what this means is the Panthers have a real need for a cover safety to play either the deep middle or the high split in what is a somewhat mysterious new defensive system. It would therefore be very surprising for the Panthers not to target this area in the draft, so who might the Panthers select?
The Big Board
Fitzpatrick is the big name attraction in this free safety class and for good reason; the Alabama product has few obvious weaknesses and can play a variety of positions. However, as good as he is, he doesn’t have a clear NFL position and will need to show he can be effective in deep zone to fit into the Panthers’ defense, not that he is likely to last until the 24th pick. As with many of those before him who have been seen as versatile back-end defenders, his matchup upside is intriguing, but it should be noted that they don’t all become Tyrann Mathieu; Fitzpatrick’s floor is reassuringly high, but his ceiling is somewhat unclear.
Justin Reid stood out during combine media availability due to his intelligence and enthusiasm for defensive schemes, and there is a lot to like on tape as well. He moves well and has good ball skills, but will need to be more consistently good as a zone defender to be seen as an top-tier cover safety. This was especially pronounced in underneath coverage, which is not how the Panthers looked to use their safeties in previous seasons and so might not be a huge concern; against the run, he shows good tackling technique and pursuit but wasn’t really asked to come down into the box and take on blockers, something he will need to do in the NFL.
Igwebuike and Allen make up the clear third tier of free safeties in this class, and both offer something very different. Igwebuike shows a good overall game on tape and tested well as the combine, but will need to be more disciplined in zone coverage in the NFL as he occasionally got burnt peeking on underneath routes only to find his man getting behind him; he also doesn’t play as fast as he tested, which might be of some concern. Allen on the other hand certainly played fast, and was effective as a run defender while at Penn State, but while he has the athletic traits to be a good coverage safety, he needs to develop in this area before he can be an impact player in the NFL. If the Panthers trust in his ability to learn, however, and are happy to start Searcy in the short term, then he could be an intriguing option on the second or even third day of the draft.
In terms of day 3 options, there are some of note, but this is a position the Panthers would prefer to address before the end of the second day. Bates or Orr could come in and likely offer immediate depth or even low level starting ability, but neither flash the potential on tape to be much more. Gaulden is a convert from nickel who showed good coverage skills at Tennessee, but is inexperienced in deep zone and needs to show the ability to be play against the run to a high level. Whitehead and Watts both flash athletic potential, but will both likely need a year or so to develop before they can contribute in any significant way. Whitehead in particular flashes with his speed and intensity, but misses plays by trying to go too fast.
Photo Credit: Rich Barnes/USA TODAY Sports
Quin Blanding was the tenth overall prospect coming out of high school, and does flash the athleticism and ball skills that made him a five star recruit, but needs to be better against the run and still needs some development in college. Somebody will likely take him in the middle rounds based on what he might become, but as with some other UVA top recruits, he has never managed to produce to that level so far.
Jamerson, Cotton-Moya and Kalu are all decent college players, but none show the kind of ability teams look for in a starting safety at the NFL level. Given the Panthers lack of depth at the position, they could be of interest as priority free agents, but none are likely to be getting playing time in the near future. Chandler at least offers the potential to develop into a decent player, but will likely be more of a practice squad option in the early years of his career.
With Fitzpatrick likely off the board come 24, the Panthers will face the decision as to whether they think Reid’s weaknesses will be minimized in the Panthers’ system, or whether they would rather wait to take him in the second round; can they afford to pass on Reid with the real chance he is gone at 55? Thus is the tight rope the Panthers must walk with their first-round pick; if they miss out on Reid, there are some other options, but the number who will be able to contribute early on is limited.
